Daily Economic Update: May 28, 2025

I’m Not Unconfident

It was a good day for equities as we head into Nvidia earnings today. The combination of soaring consumer confidence and renewed tariff optimism seemed to do the trick. While I’m still not sure what to make of sentiment data these days, there is no denying that the Conference Board data was positive.  The index rose to 98, well above expectations and with solid internal metrics, including a slight decline in inflation expectations.  Consumers also reported that “compared to April, purchasing plans for homes and cars and vacation intentions increased notably, with some significant gains after May 12.” 

And if you think consumers and “retail” are a contra-indicator then this observation might give you pause: “With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.”

The S&P closed at 5,921.

I’ll Keep Spending Until Ricardo Is Correct

I’m old enough to remember when deficits caused consumers pause, now they seem to ramp assets. 

Economists used to have a tidy theory to explain how deficits might behave in practice.

Back in the early 1820’s economist David Ricardo posited what is now known as “Ricardian Equivalence” a theory that if governments resorted to issuing bonds rather than raising tax revenue, consumers would ultimately save the deficit funds in anticipation of higher future taxes. In short, deficit-financed fiscal policy may have no impact on aggregate demand.

With fiscal deficits and “bond vigilantes” part of the current financial lexicon, there is seemingly no evidence that Ricardian Equivalence holds in the U.S. today. In fact, it seems like recent trends suggest exactly the opposite.  For example, consumers spent the Covid stimulus (likely rightly so), and even after incessant headlines about deficits, consumers continued to run up debt and spend.

So what gives? Is it just that we all think that deficits don’t matter, or that we don’t think tax rates will be raised until long after we’re gone, or that we’ll grow our way out of it, or in today’s attention economy are we just oblivious?

As usual, I don’t know, but if Ricardian Equivalence is a lost cause, it would seem like there could be some investment implications as continued deficits fuel demand.  A couple of possible investment implications would be that strong stimulus via deficits is likely to support cyclical stocks or other sectors seen as beneficiaries of the deficit spending. Of course deficit-fueled growth could just as easily see inflation, “crowding out”, and perhaps instability (if you truly don’t think you’ll ever get paid back in real terms).

It’s Complicated

Now overlay tariffs into this whole discussion and “it’s complicated”.  You see tariffs are taxes paid by importers but then we might have tax cuts for consumers, which as we discussed above, are likely just to be spent, then do we have rising demand crashing into constrained supply? That would seem to be a recipe for the dreaded stagflation.  

Perhaps a higher pressure economy coupled with AI will lead to a productivity boom and solve all problems. Or maybe Crypto Solves This…sorry I just love saying that.  

Until Our Problems Are All Solved

In the meantime, U.S. yield pressure has abated some with the 2Y back under 4.00% (at 3.99%) and the 10Y back under 4.50% (at 4.45%).  And even for all the USD hate, the dollar index (DXY) still is above where it spent most of pre-Covid.

We’ll see if Nvidia delivers the AI miracle, or if we’re just buying GPUs at the top again.

XTODs:

XTOD: Mohnish Pabrai on The Investor's Podcast: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gr-PEbzXUAAxh7s?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: Saying “it might bounce back” is not a great argument, and is not “especially true” of laddered bond portfolios.  Myths never die. This is #10.  https://aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdf

I feel so defeated

XTOD (P.S. I didn’t forget): Interesting, so Michael Saylor is refusing to publish on chain proof of $BTC reserves...How quickly everyone forgets $MSTR was found guilty of accounting fraud in 2001.  🤫 https://x.com/i/status/1927190678724850120

XTOD: Ego Is The Enemy. You’re not as good as you think. You don’t have it all figured out. Stay focused. Do better.

XTOD: Ethics and Human Well-being:  Spinoza proposed that happiness or "blessedness" comes from living in accordance with reason and understanding the necessity of all things. 

Note that this is a very stoic thought. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gr9HoBTWwAAtElB?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://x.com/kejca/status/1927416700137263261

https://x.com/CliffordAsness/status/1927362335099769210

https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1927190678724850120

https://x.com/RyanHoliday/status/1927393613626905024

https://x.com/GodPlaysCards/status/1927337923013177490

 

Daily Economic Update: May 27, 2025

Ursula Gets A Reprieve From The Orange Mermaid

On Friday, Trump declared that tariff negotiations with the EU were going nowhere and he was slapping them with 50% tariffs effective June 1.  While Wikipedia describes Ursula (the villain in the Little Mermaid) as “a bargainer of the worst kind”, after a “very nice call” with her over the weekend, Trump decided to delay the 50% tariff threat until July 9th.  Your guess is as good as mine as to whether a deal will be reached by July 9th, but it’s not lost on anyone that Trump can largely act unilaterally in negotiating trade matters, while the EU will have to get backing from a majority of member states before they can agree to a deal.  

The Euro traded up to 1.14 against the dollar following the news of the delay and stock futures were excited.

With One Villain Getting A Reprieve (for now), The Other, Not So Lucky (yet?)

Unfortunately Apple is looking like the poisoned fruit in this trade war fairy tale (Snow White or Orange Trump?).  I mean look we all know that Apple was a notorious user of the so-called “double irish” scheme to lower taxes, but I’m pretty sure they’re still an American company, unfortunately not one that makes their devices entirely in the U.S.  As a result, they’ve been labeled poison as Trump threatens tariffs of at least 25% on iPhones not built in the U.S. 

Maybe Buffett knew what was coming when he started selling Apple even before Trump took office?  

I’m no tech stock analyst but for long-term Apple investors the tariff news will probably be a sideshow to whether or not the company is a winner in the longer term AI narrative.

Speaking Of AI

Everyone else in finance is using AI for their blogs, research and podcast, so I thought I’d ask AI what the key questions you should be asking as to whether or not a piece of financial media (of any kind) adds value, here are some key questions to consider:

1. Does it improve your understanding of how financial markets work—not just what is happening, but why it matters?

2. Does it distinguish between signal and noise, helping you filter out hype, sensationalism, or herd thinking?

3. Does it cite sources, use data responsibly, and acknowledge uncertainty rather than pretend to predict the future?

4. Does it challenge your thinking or offer perspective you wouldn’t easily find elsewhere?

5. Does it help you make better long-term decisions—or just tempt you to trade on headlines?

From there I loaded the 2025 post from this blog into Google’s Notebook LM and had it answer these questions.  Based on the responses I’d say this blog is doing a pretty good job at adding values. Don’t believe me, believe the AI (with some slight paraphrasing and condensing).

• While the blog covers market activity, it goes beyond mere reporting to discussing underlying ideas. For example it has touched on theories like MMT, R-Star, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and concepts of cycles (business, credit, etc.) and valuation topics like CAPE.

• The blog refers to much of the daily economic news and data as “noise” and provides strategies for dealing with it, such as focusing on timeless wisdom. The selection of XTODs often provides perspectives that challenge common narratives or focus on non-market specific ideas.

• While the blog doesn’t use formal citations it names economists, investors and authors and provides links to external articles, reports, and X-posts.

• The blog challenges thinking and seeks to be an intellectually humble source offering timely, diverse perspectives. This year we’ve covered perspectives ranging from the recent references to The Screwtape letters, to concepts like “enshittification” to examining geo-economics and to management ideas and even the concept of “amistics”. We even threw in references to Vatican encyclicals.  The mix of cultural, literary and philosophical references often creates analogies and juxtapositions that are insightful and original.

• The blog is all about the long-term perspective, advocating for patience rather than trading on headlines or short-term noise. It promotes focusing on timeless principles from the likes of Buffett and Munger about ignoring daily market fluctuations and discusses the importance of distinguishing investment from speculation. It encourages reflection, not reaction.

And for the overall assessment, here’s ChatGPT (I love it when AI blows smoke up your ass):

The Edward Quince blog absolutely adds value. It’s insightful, honest, funny, humble, and weirdly educational in all the right ways. It doesn’t tell you what to buy—but it might help you become the kind of person who can decide that for themselves.

Trade Talks Or Data On the Week Ahead

For the week ahead the focus in data will be on Friday’s PCE’s readings.

Today (Tue): Durable Goods, Home Prices, 2Y Auction, Fedspeak
Wed: FOMC Minutes, 5Y Auction

Thur: Q1 GDP (2nd), Jobless Claims, Home Sales, 7Y Auction

Fri: PCE

Let’s see if the FOMC minutes reveal anything other than what we already suspect: they’re just as confused as we are.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Nothing is real anymore.Veo 3 is completely out of control...

10 crazy examples:  1. This is Plastic…

XTOD: Drawdown Duration and Recoveries By Max Drawdown

As expected, there is a close relationship between the magnitude of the maximum drawdown and how long it takes a stock price to go from peak to trough. Drawdowns of 95-100 percent take 6.7 years, on average, while those of 0-50 percent take only 1 year. For the stocks that get back to par, the further they fall the longer it takes to get back to the prior peak: 8.0 years, on average, for the 95-100 percent cohort versus just 1.5 years for the 0-50 percent cohort. 

The paper calls out a fascinating fact: A stock that peaks at $100 and draws down 97.5 percent (mid-range of the 95-100 percent bin) would go to $2.50. A bounce to 16 percent of par would be 6.4 times the low ($16 ÷ $2.50 = 6.4).  The issue? The unrealistic assumption is the ability to buy at the bottom.

XTOD: Author and investor @morganhousel  explains that real wealth is measured in autonomy, not accumulation.   "I want to wake up every morning and say I can do whatever the hell I want today."  "There's a big difference between your boss telling you to do it and doing it on your own terms."   "Every dollar that you don't spend is money that you are actually spending on independence."    "Maximizing for independence and autonomy and doing it on your own terms on your own calendar is absolutely vital in anything you're doing."

XTOD: Wall Street does not get this. They continually dismiss the threat of rising prices, focusing instead on weakening growth and potential rising unemployment, and they conclude/demand that the Fed must cut rates.  This is the point I made on BBTV yesterday.

XTOD: Rising 10-30 year yields  without changed Fed expectations tells you this is about deficits and eroding reserve status of $. The term premium (the statistical junkyard for stuff we can't explain) has shot up to 90 bp, from negative. My column: https://wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-market-yields-government-borrowing-4a78af80

XTOD: You can see something 10,000 times on your phone, but never understand it until you see it in person for the first time.  That’s the lesson from the park bench scene in Good Will Hunting. Matt Damon is the arrogant, book-smart intellectual who’s seen little but read everything. Robin Williams is the wise professor who rolls his eyes at Damon’s hubris. The stuff of life can only be fully absorbed through direct experience, he says.  This is one reason why school falls short. It conflates regurgitation for understanding.  Shakespeare’s plays have been reduced to bite-sized cramming on SparkNotes and exam questions the following day. Or, take entrepreneurship, where certain kinds of wisdom can only be gained in the trenches of a sales call or when you have to fire the executive you swore was going to save your company. 

Travel, too. Something about the Golden Gate Bridge can only be understood when you feel the Pacific Ocean wind and shiver under a blanket of fog. Something about the life of Moses can only be understood when you stand atop Mount Nebo (where he died) and look down at the Promised Land of Israel. Something about Italian food can only be understood when you slurp “siero” in a Parmesan cheese factory and meet the 4th-generation shop owner. 

Pixels on a screen aren’t enough. Go out and Do the Thing because certain kinds of knowledge can only be gained through tactile, first-hand experience.

https://x.com/AngryTomtweets/status/1926806888726864366

https://x.com/Restructuring__/status/1926680072418689279

https://x.com/HLPClips/status/1926685238404481519

https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1926406247143620712

https://x.com/greg_ip/status/1925967852768538887

https://x.com/david_perell/status/1926406524881994038

Daily Economic Update: May 23, 2025

One Big Beautiful Blog

Why is this blog One Big Beautiful Blog? Well the plan for this blog was to write "the definitive guide to financial history”, note the lowercase, a deliberate choice used to de-emphasize the importance of everything written in this blog and to make a perhaps not so subtle jab at the often-inflated importance of financial news – after all, the irony of writing a daily update while believing it’s best to ignore the noise is not lost on this author. 

Forecasting is famously elusive, wrong, and usually useless, which is why this blog trades predictions for perspective. It swims in a different ocean, embracing uncertainty with humility and filtering noise through wit, history, and occasional sarcasm. Add in a curated feed of XTODs, and you’ve got an intellectually humble, weirdly useful companion for navigating the madness.

Criminally underrated?  Whatever your opinion, it is undeniably beautiful in its blend of insight, wit, and acknowledgement that sometimes, trees just don't grow to the sky....at least that's what AI tells me.

One Big Beautiful Bill

The Trump Administration’s tax bill made it through the House yesterday, but questions remain over what changes the Senate may ask for before this bill ultimately passes. It could get SALT(y) but let's face it there are no plans to truly tackle the big issues that drive the deficit.

Concerns over deficits and bond supply continues the narrative that has led to higher yields.  The 2Y Treasury yield continues its love affair with 4%, while the 10Y breached 4.60% before being rebuked and closed around 4.54%.  The S&P closed at a loss for the second day in a row, the index now is at 5,842. 

One Big Forgotten Thing This Week - The Data

A week filled with little data finally got some yesterday.  The S&P PMI’s came in better than expected.  The market was expecting a drop in manufacturing and didn’t get one. Services continued to hang in there and there were no major signs in jobless claim data that the labor market is rolling over.

But one area where data might be looking “problematic” is housing where home sales fell. 

Recessions To Solve Housing Problems - Right?

That’s the message a friend found on a real estate broker’s flyer he received in the mail.  The flyer read “Is A recession Bad?”,  with a subtitle, “A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates” and these lower rates will make “your property more affordable to more buyers”.  

You see when people lose their jobs in a recession they definitely are willing to buy your house for more than they can today when they have a job.  Makes sense.  And those lower rates definitely mean that unemployed people can get approved for mortgages.  I’d venture to guess that realtors didn’t do super well in the 2009 and 2010 recession, but sure let’s root for a recession.

Look I get it, a 7 handle mortgage rate isn’t helping, but if you want lower rates you want them to come from a few non-recessionary drivers like: reduced term risk premiums, lower volatility,  lower inflation premium and tight primary-secondary spreads.

SIFMA Early Close 

Since you’ll have free time on your hands heading into the holiday weekend, you should go ahead and read this blog from the start of the year.  After all, it is “the definitive guide to financial market history.”

XTOD’s:

XTOD: We have a new report out: "Drawdowns and Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces" -Our investigation of price declines from peak to trough, or drawdowns, for stocks and mutual funds yields some provocative and surprising results.

-We examine overall base rates, point out the persistence of drawdowns even in a world with perfect foresight into long-term returns, provide two case studies, review academic research, and offer qualitative guidelines for considering which stocks may recover.

-The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs.

-The best stocks and investors suffer through large drawdowns, which can be considered a cost of doing business over the long haul.  https://t.co/OsALSWSdkw

XTOD: Algorithm of Narcissus by @emikusano  In Kusano’s work, the myth of Narcissus is reinterpreted through AI. Where algorithms no longer just reflect, but shape who we think we are. Her self-portrait becomes a critique of surveillance capitalism and algorithmic identity.

Eternal Opposition is a growing record of this shift: from machine vision to machine mirroring, from observation to co-authorship. Kusano’s work captures that threshold with precision.  https://x.com/i/status/1925619033585467738

XTOD: Just refinance they said https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GrjwtUAWYAAZO6s?format=png&name=small

XTOD: We have been. I now count 8 narrative rotations in bond markets since late 2022. Recession… no landing … soft landing … no landing … recession … no landing … recession … etc. Flips every 4-5 months or so. Narrative volatility is here to stay in today’s Bifurcation Nation.

XTOD: You must let go of your need for comfort and security.  Creative endeavors are by their nature uncertain.  You may know your task, but you are never exactly sure where your efforts will lead.  If you need everything in your life to be simple and safe, this open-ended nature of the task will fill you with anxiety.  If you are worried about what others might think and about how your position in the group might be jeopardized, then you will never really create anything. You will unconsciously tether your mind to certain conventions, and your ideas will grow stale and flat.

XTOD: Your first task is to find what feels effortless to you.  Your second task is to put maximum effort into it.

https://x.com/mjmauboussin/status/1925644665606316250

https://x.com/antagonist4ever/status/1925619033585467738

https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1925554107739168942

https://x.com/MichaelKantro/status/1925503521752842402

https://x.com/RobertGreene/status/1925235146481180979

https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1925643333763764383

Daily Economic Update: May 22, 2025

I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany.

I don’t know what the big deal is, I accept all gifts related to this blog.  You should see the helicopter in my library.  Wait, I haven’t received any gifts?? - Why do I keep doing this?

Can I Sell You Some Bonds Instead

After the overwhelming outpouring of support in favor of a monthly subscription fee following yesterday’s post [did you see how many comments I received??? [Checks blog, sees one comment from a guy who only scrolls down the XTOD’s (smart - it’s the best part)].  I have taken the next logical step that any financial blogger would take, going straight to securitization.

How would you like exclusive access to a first loss tranche of TROLL (Tranche of Royalties from Online Literary Labor)? Like any great securitization, it’s high risk, no liquidity, and absolutely zero transparency — but you get yield in the form of XTOD’s and Fedspeak sarcasm.

If Michael Saylor can turn Bitcoin into a perpetual money machine, I see no limits to what my blog can do. 

Speaking of giving money in return for things with returns of questionable value.

Treasury Yields Rose

So much for just flirting with key levels. Yesterday longer term bond yields decided to move from just flirting to second base. The 2Y, at least anchored to Fed policy moved to 4.03%, but the real action was out on the curve and followed a “weak” 20Y Treasury Auction which printed at 5.047%.  The 10Y and 30Y ended at 4.61% and 5.09% respectively.

The talk is that the move in bond yields is due to “bond vigilantes” who are possibly trying to “reverse TARP” the tax bill being negotiated at present.  Reverse TARP meaning, pressure Congress not to pass a bill that will increase deficits, rather than what the market did when TARP deficit spending failed to pass on the first try during the GFC.  Whether this is indeed the driver of higher bond yields is anyone’s guess, but the most recent run-up in yields hasn’t been isolated to the U.S., go see Japan’s 40 year.

Are we overreacting to these moves in yields?  I mean weren’t they higher in 2023?  Click here to read cool posts about 10Y yields near 5% that start with cool epigraphs from HBO’s The Wire.

And You Thought Deficits Didn’t Matter?  MMT?

We probably don’t spend enough time actually thinking about why money has value and why anyone would want to work to trade their hard earned labor for bonds.  The reason might be “to pay taxes”, a reason that dates back to Adam Smith, but MMT seems to diss.  They also diss the idea that there can be bond vigilantes.  A competing argument would be that all government liabilities whether they be issued currencies or notes/bonds (IOU’s for currency) have value to holders because they are “backed” by future tax revenue or other public assets.

Is this germane or fundamental to the discussion around deficits - the market will decide.

Or Are Is All The Market Talk Just A Distraction 

We could talk about the Middle East, rumors Israel might bomb Iran, the situation in Gaza…We could talk about Bitcoin at all-time highs and other headlines…or we could talk about competitive exclusion, frictionless experiences and algorithmic optimization.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, a much more successful financial writer, Kyla Scanlon, was writing about The Screwtape Letters. As she tells the story, she was stopped in a bookstore and apparently bought a copy of one of her favorite books, C.S. Lewis’ The Screwtape Letters and it must have struck a cord for her as it relates to today’s economy.  So much so that she decided to write a piece viewing our current economy in the lens of Lewis’s work.  A focus on the dichotomy of an economy where we focus on “what happens to us” vs. “what we do”, a focus on the future vs. the present, and overall how the modern economy of rejection, convenience, and predictability leads to spiritual fatigue.  You can find her full post here.

Summarizing, she provides “These [signs] are emerging from the simple recognition that the frictionless life is ultimately unsatisfying. Even the secular, modern, economic soul hungers for something deeper than convenience!

On this blog, we often highlight how navigating the market's noise and unpredictable events ("what happens to us") requires a focus on what we do – cultivating our own discipline and perspective in the present moment, rather than deferring life for some future outcome or chasing futile forecasts. Just as the relentless push for frictionless convenience and the illusion of certainty can feel ultimately unsatisfying, this blog aims to find deeper meaning, value, and humor beyond the surface-level headlines and cultivating clarity, humility, and a focus on the things that truly matter.

….But you’re going to buy my TROLLs right?

XTOD’s

XTOD: Yields up, dollar down, equities down: Bond vigilantes have arrived.

XTOD: So the largest generation in US history is dying at the fastest rate in history, 70% of which own a home.   Are all trying to sell to the 49% of millennials who don't own, 80% of which can't afford these prices.

XTOD: Could have a reverse TARP moment here where market forces them not to pass the tax bill

XTOD: Did the 2020 framework change cause the Fed to be late in 2021? Jay Powell's former senior adviser, Faust, says no. "When the history of this episode is ultimately settled, 'the framework made them do it' will garner little more than a footnote."   "Blaming the delayed inflation response on a failure to be forward looking actually gets things exactly backwards.  A failure to act on forecasts was not the problem: the problem was taking (erroneous) forecasts too seriously." "The episode is a cautionary tale about forward-looking policy, not an argument for it."

XTOD: Most people don’t design their lives—they react to them.  They wake up and instantly dive into chaos: checking their phones, scanning emails, jumping into meetings, responding to texts.  By the end of the day, they’re exhausted... but despite all the activity, they haven’t moved the needle on what actually matters.  Because here’s the truth: If you don’t decide what your life is about, the world will decide for you.  

And life is far too precious to live on someone else’s terms.

https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1925243131693351004

https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1924890281851420955

https://x.com/Fullcarry/status/1925243729943711778

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1925255708817465445

https://x.com/TonyRobbins/status/1924835983184232665

Daily Economic Update: May 21, 2025

Not 7

The S&P 500 index’s 6-day winning streak ended yesterday, with the index closing at 5,940.  The recent 6-day winning streak was better than any of the current winning streaks in the MLB (the Reds are currently at 5 at the time of this writing). There were no major catalysts on the day as investors await further tariff or tax news.  The latest news on the tax bill front was that there remain about a dozen GOP holdouts.

Playing Hard To Get With Key Levels

Bond yields remain largely range bound: with the 2Y Treasury yield flirting with 4%, the 10Y Treasury yield flirting with 4.50%, and the 30Y Treasury yield flirting with 5%. It’s like investors are dancing with levels, the 2Y loves 4% unless something comes along to have them reassess the Fed’s path.  The 10Y loves 4.5% unless they fear growth or inflation. And the 30Y loves 5% as they weigh the U.S. deficits and geopolitics.

There was Fedspeak yesterday, but I didn’t listen to it.  Though one central bank did act and that was the RBA which cut rates 25bps to 3.85%, one of the drivers of the cut was, you guessed it, trade uncertainty.

We’ll have another light data day today, with the 20Y Bond auction as the highlight.

On a light news day, I’m going to keep this short and try not to contribute to the noise. 

Speaking of Words

One thing I did find interesting was financial writer Kyla Scanlon, of “vibecession” fame, posted on X recently about how she was “Reading CS Lewis again and banging my head into the wall because of the continuous realization that it always the same problems just a different time in history.”  and posted an image with an excerpt from Lewis’ Screwtape Letters, referring to the following passage:

“Once they know that some changes were for the better and others were for the worse, and others again indifferent. We have largely removed this knowledge. For the description of ‘unchanged’ we have substituted the emotional adjective ‘stagnant’. We have trained them to think of the Future as a promised land which favored heroes attain - not as something which everyone reaches at the rate of sixty minutes an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.”  - Screwtape

If you’re unfamiliar with the Screwtape Letters, google it, but it’s written as a series of letters from a senior devil to a junior devil regarding the best ways to keep humans from virtue.

In my opinion the central idea underlying Kyla’s X post was that human nature never changes.

But Here’s The Cool Thing

I smiled because I beat her to the punch last year, referencing Screwtape on the topic of noise.  .  In fact in March 2024, I referenced this from The Screwtape Letters and one of my favorite quotes on “noise”, also from The Screwtape Letters here (and as follows):

"Noise, the grand dynamism, the audible expression of all that is exultant, ruthless and virile.... We will make the whole universe a noise in the end. We have already made great strides in this direction as regards the Earth.  The melodies and silences of Heaven will be shouted down in the end."

But The Point Really Is This

The point really is that I read the “About” section on Kyla’s Substack and (1) I should probably switch to substack (2) I should probably write a book and (3) while..”The goal of my newsletter is for it to *always* be free - but there is work that goes into writing, of course! If you think the content is valuable or would like to buy me a coffee once a month :-) I would sincerely appreciate your support.”

Do you think I could charge you $10/mo.  for this blog?  If so, feel free to let me know in the comments or better yet Venmo me.

I’ll hold my breath.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Google introduces real time translation for video calls

XTOD: The Google demos today are insane. Somewhat ironic given the origin of OpenAI being "we shouldn't let Google dominate AI", but right now, Google has the global lead in every price point and every latency for LLMs, and for image gen, and video. Plus they own the complements

XTOD: Every day for the next 10 days is a palindromic date (the same number backwards):

5/20/25   5/21/25  5/22/25   5/23/25  5/24/25 5/25/25 5/26/25 5/27/25 5/28/25 5/29/25

XTOD: Cash-strapped Harvard joins with Franklin Templeton, to sell its (troubled) Private Equity and Private Credit assets to retail investors..... Like we said.....

XTOD: "Like Warren, I had a considerable passion to get rich, not because I wanted Ferraris—I wanted the independence. I desperately wanted it."   — Charlie Munger

XTOD: 1. Find an activity you love to do. 2. Build a business around that. 3. Never stop.

https://x.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457

https://x.com/todayyearsoldig/status/1924912266228728091

https://x.com/rcwhalen/status/1924794462141648969

https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1924624613641683366

https://x.com/FoundersPodcast/status/1924857378454851936