Daily Economic Update: March 11, 2024

The Federal Reserve is in it's blackout period leading up to their March 20th rate decision.  The week ahead features an important (aren't they all important?) CPI data print on Tuesday,  followed by PPI and Retail Sales on Thursday and UofM consumer sentiment on Friday.

Like the Fed, every so often it's good to cut the noise out of your day, especially in financial markets news.  As Warren Buffet said in the latest Berkshire annual letter [referring to his sister): "She is sensible – very sensible – instinctively knowing that pundits should always be ignored. After all, if she could reliably predict tomorrow’s winners, would she freely share her valuable insights and thereby increase competitive buying? That would be like finding gold and then handing a map to the neighbors showing its location."

So like I did back in December 2023  for the remainder of the week, you'll get one quote/excerpt a day from whatever books, article, transcript, etc. I have laying around.

Speaking of NOISE, here are two quotes to consider to start your week:

"Noise, the grand dynamism, the audible expression of all that is exultant, ruthless and virile.... We will make the whole universe a noise in the end. We have already made great strides in this direction as regards the Earth.  The melodies and silences of Heaven will be shouted down in the end."

                            -C.S. Lewis, Screwtape Letter #22

"that’s the problem is our modern world, with all of its noise, produces a state of constant alert, and that is not optimal. And this would all matter less, but that amid that noise, there is also signal. In the realm of information theory, the term signal refers to the desired meaningful information. While noise is the unwanted interference, transposing this concept into our daily lives, the signal is the crucial work. It’s a heartfelt conversation. It’s the key insight. The noise is everything that distracts or detracts from that, and this constant exposure to noise makes it hard for our brains to filter out the essential from the non-essential. When bombarded by too many stimuli, too much noise, the brain struggles to identify and process the signal. You know the feeling. You’re trying to write a report, and your email notifications keep pinging, annoying emails interfere with the signal writing the report, affecting the quality of your decision-making and clarity, and all of this leads to mental fatigue or cognitive fatigue when the brain is overused. Similar to how our muscles tire after prolonged exertion, constant noise, and distractions demand the brain to switch tasks frequently.

You know what it’s called – context switching. Each switch uses up cognitive resources leading to rapid depletion of our mental energy. So this is why after not even a day but a few hours with constant interruptions, even if they’re minor, you can feel as exhausted as if you’ve done intense physical labor. The fatigue isn’t just about the mental effort of the main task but about the additional energy expended in managing and shifting between distractions, and the fatigue has a compounding effect. As you become more tired, your capacity to differentiate between noise and signal diminishes further, making you even more susceptible to distractions, which in turn increases fatigue. So there’s a vicious cycle that can severely impact mental wellbeing. "

 -Gregg Mckeown, podcast ep. 233