Daily Economic Update: February 4, 2025

I was going to write more but some 19 year old from DOGE showed up and demanded access to my server. The good news is this blog is going to be 1,000x more efficient from here on out and I stopped sending wires to random people.

The first trading day of February was an eventful one with tariff news front and center.  We learned that this is a “drug war” not a “trade war”.  Already the tariffs on Mexico are on pause for one month in exchange for Mexico agreeing to put 10,000 of their soldiers on their border.  Following the news of at least the temporary halting of the tariffs on Mexico was viewed positively by markets, allowing the S&P 500 to significantly reverse earlier losses.  At the lows of the day the S&P was down nearly 2%, but it managed to finish down ~0.75%, at 5,994.

The 2y was up a few bps to 4.26% and  the 10y is 4.55%.

After the bell, Canada also announced steps to secure their border against illicit drug flow including the addition of 10,000 personnel and a fentanyl czar all backed by $200mm.  The result is also a 30-day pause on tariffs.

Speculation remains that China may be looking at a broader negotiation ahead of potential April tariffs.

Irrespective of whether or not tariffs are designed to increase American manufacturing, yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing index posted 50.9, an expansionary reading and solid internals including a fourth straight month of higher prices.

Away from tariffs, the Trump administration seemed to secure a “win” with Panama as the President of Panama indicated they were ceasing their involvement with China’s belt and road initiative and will consider voiding other agreements.

And I guess the Fed can take a win on the day as well, as Trump said he agreed with their decision to hold rates.

Of course we also got some AI news, with OpenAI’s deep research model.

JOLTs on the day ahead.

XTOD: The real tax is society forcing otherwise productive people to pay attention to politics.

XTOD: Too many things happening right now, but there's a decent chance the most important announcement in the last 48 hours is confirmation that the frontier AI labs have taken significant steps toward building autonomous digital workers that can "navigate the web, process information across all modalities, and take meaningful action in the world" (

@emollick ).   So, a disembodied silicon brain that can accomplish complex multi-hour, or multi-day research projects—search on the Internet, read, synthesize, write, and even PowerPoints—in a matter of minutes.  If you're still on team "AI is a waste of time," I genuinely don't know what you think the white-collar economy is.

XTOD: "If you do average work for average pay, AI is going to be able to do it cheaper than you."  — Seth Godin

XTOD: Agustín Carstens discusses how central banks can apply lessons from the recent inflation surge to their monetary policy frameworks during the current round of reviews 

@stlouisfed  https://bis.org/speeches/sp250204.htm

XTOD: Our levels of desire, patience, persistence, and confidence end up playing a much larger role in success than sheer reasoning powers. Feeling motivated and energized, we can overcome almost anything. Feeling bored and restless, our minds shut off and we become increasingly passive.

https://x.com/NavalismHQ/status/1886234904155095533

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Daily Economic Update: February 3, 2025

Starting off your February with tariffs. It’s like your Spotify DJ – you know it finds one song you like, that’s not your favorite song, but it decides to play it a lot, too much, to the point you don’t want to hear it, but you still know it was coming in rotation at some point.  Trump told you tariffs were on his favorites list, Trump campaigned partly on tariffs, then we are shocked when he implements them?  And many still think he won’t go through with tariffs or leave them in place for long, but for now it’s 25% on Mexico and Canada, and another 10% on China starting on Feb. 4.  There is also a retaliatory clause that could escalate the situation further.

Now it gets fun to think about how the burden of the tax gets born. Imagine you’re a retail company in the food industry, you import a major ingredient in your dip from your factory in Mexico. You now pay an $3+ tax on your $15 food item.  Immediate question, can you raise the price such that consumers absorb it? If not, can you absorb the cost in your margin?  Let’s assume you raise the price, but now you sell less quantity, is the knock on effect that importing less from Mexico leads to Mexican unemployment and political pressure on Mexico to act to secure the border, etc.?  Is that the mechanism by which this accomplishes Trump’s border goals?  Or does the exchange adjust to offset some of this tax?  I think the policy goal is that potential for tariffed countries to see less U.S. demand which will pressure employment in those economies. The potential exchange rate implications like a weaker Peso is a double edged sword, it could keep exports competitive but could cause local inflation. How everything adjusts and whether Trump adjusts policy will be major question marks.

Speaking of inflation, Friday’s PCE data were in line with expectations, printing 2.6% YoY on headline and 2.8% YoY on core.  We talked about some differences in CPI and PCE back on January 15th and it seems like some key questions remain around the direction of housing.  That said, the real key question for inflation from here is around tariffs.  While I don’t believe in the tariffs cause inflation story, I do believe that policy responses to tariffs can cause inflation and perhaps that even just the expectation of higher inflation can be potentially impactful to the economy. 

We’ll start the week with the Dollar rising on the tariff news, DXY up at 108.50, USD:CAD up over 1.45, USD:MXN ~20.68.   The S&P 500 sits at 6,040.  The 2Y at 4.22% and the 10Y at 4.54%.

On the week ahead, Friday's jobs report is the data highlight, but will probably take a backseat to Trump’s policies. We also get a few important tech earnings reports in the mix and monetary policy from the BoE (likely to cut 25bps).

Monday: ISM mfg, Fedspeak

Tuesday: JOLTs, factory orders

Wednesday: Treasury Refunding Announcement, ISM Services, fedspeak

Thursday: BoE, jobless claims, 

Friday: Jobs Day in ‘merica, UofM

XTOD: Honestly very patriotic of the Mavs to make sure Trump wasn’t responsible for the worst trade decision of the weekend

XTOD: Axios reports that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio presented the President of Panama, José Raúl Mulino with an Ultimatum while meeting yesterday, that if Panama does not take “Immediate Action” to remove Chinese Influence from the Panama Canal, “then the United States will take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Torrijos–Carter Treaties.”

XTOD: I don’t know what’s most disconcerting: (1) that anyone should imagine the Trump gang capable of hatching so elaborate a plan; (2) that anyone should think the plan capable of accomplishing its end of de-dollarization; or (3) that someone might consider that end worthwhile.

XTOD: Nobody who’s actually good at making money needs to sell you a course on it.

XTOD: The ability to tolerate pain and long hours is the most dangerous thing you can have.

XTOD: “I thought fame and fortune would bring me happiness. But one day you wake up and realize they don’t. I still felt the same emptiness — only worse, because I couldn’t say, ‘If only I had this.’” -Madonna

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https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/1885698126226297266

https://x.com/BrentBeshore/status/1885370240529232370

Daily Economic Update: January 31, 2025

Yesterday, the ECB cut rates by 25bps as expected, bringing their key deposit rate to 2.75%.  This is their 5th cut since the start of last year.  Earlier in the week GDP reads from some EU nations fell on the weaker side.

Speaking of GDP, the U.S. GDP data showed the slowest growth in the last few quarters, but still printed 2.3% YoY.  While below estimates, consumption was very strong, leading some commentaries to pin the miss on the more volatile inventory and fixed investment components, which may rebound.  Consumption is what we do in America, we earn income from our labor and consume goods and services and invest the difference. At the end of the day the focus ultimately goes back to productivity.  GDP is productive capacity and it ultimately depends on labor, capital and the raw materials for production combined with the discovery of new applications and technologies that allow us to produce more with the same inputs.  This week certainly seemed to highlight a question around whether AI will be a massive unlock for continued productivity and growth or whether it will suffer diminishing marginal returns. 

We made it through the week with a mixed bag of mega tech earnings and more to come in the week ahead. The S&P ended at 6,070, up on the year, while the 2Y is 4.22% and the 10Y is 4.52%, both of which are down on the year.

PCE is the big stone on the day, although most research on PCE is pretty well honed in from CPI readings, but I guess we’ll see.  We’ll also be waiting to see if Trump follows through with Feb 1, 2025 tariffs at the 25% level.

It’s hard to believe January is coming to an end, but let’s be real, we already don’t remember most of what happened this month anyway. 

I had AI summarize the January we shared together on this blog.

Alright, buckle up, because January 2025 was a wild ride, and if you blinked, you might have missed it. Here’s a humorous look at the top 10 things we learned, or maybe just stumbled upon, during this chaotic month:

1. AI is either the future or a total sham, or maybe both. DeepSeek apparently built a ChatGPT killer for pennies, and Nvidia might just be the next Pets.com. It’s all very confusing, but hey, at least it's not boring. Also, Zuck says "America" should be spending a ton on AI Infrastructure. 

2. Trump's back, and so are the tariffs. The man loves tariffs more than his own children, apparently. He's also bringing back "animal spirits" to CEOs, whatever that means. Also, apparently, Melania has a memecoin now. And a good way to make headlines is to demand lower oil prices and lower interest rates.

3. The Fed is still a thing, but maybe not a very good one. Jay Powell is still trying to figure out the inflation thing while Trump is calling them “boneheads”. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but who knows what will happen when the tariffs start flying. Also, apparently, the Fed has been spending too much time on DEI and green energy, according to Trump. Oh, and also, watch out for "fiscal r-star" – it's a thing now.

4. Bonds are still trying to be a safe haven, but they’re having an identity crisis. Sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down, and sometimes they do the opposite of what they’re supposed to do. Also, some people say to just buy "safe equities" instead of bonds. What's a poor investor to do? 

5. Bitcoin is still a thing too, but it’s basically just a levered bet on the Nasdaq. Also, you can now get a "Protected Bitcoin ETF," which is guaranteed to get you 100% of your money back if Bitcoin drops by 50%. Sounds like a steal, right? And speaking of steals, if the government comes to confiscate your Bitcoin, you are SOL.

6. The stock market is a casino, but with more spreadsheets. It goes up, it goes down, sometimes for no reason at all. Also, there's a lot of talk about whether we're in a "bubble," especially in AI and tech sectors, and whether "trees grow to the sky". Also, you should probably consume investment info according to your time horizon.

7. The "Great Stay" is in full effect. You can't get fired, but you may not be getting hired either. Also, maybe college isn't all that great anymore.

8. It's always something. Whether it's DeepSeek, tariffs, Trump, inflation, job numbers, or a bunch of other stuff, there's always something to worry about. And of course, don’t forget the fires in California and the ice storms in the Southwest.

9. The human condition is still a mess. People are still greedy, fearful, and easily manipulated. Also, the "smart money" is trying to convince the "dumb money" to "buy the dip," so they can liquidate their positions to the bagholders. And apparently, people are spending less time with friends. Sad.

10. Nobody knows anything, and that's okay. Economic forecasts are a coin flip, and the future is inherently uncertain. But, that’s okay because you don’t need all the answers right now.

There you have it, folks. January 2025, a month of head-scratching, nail-biting, and maybe a little bit of head-shaking. Tune in next month, when we’ll probably be dealing with some other completely unpredictable thing. And remember, blame Canada.

No, but we really did talk about some real things, remember:

1. Theories of inflation

2. The business cycle

3. The credit cycle

4. Asset bubbles

5. Valuation Metrics (CAPE, Buffett Indicator, Term Premium)

You didn’t remember these?

Here’s a Top 5 XTODs of the Month of sorts.

1. “You have a part that only you can play; and your business is to play it to perfection, instead of trying to force fortune. Our lives are not interchangeable. Equally by aiming too high and by falling too low, one misses the path to the goal. Go straight ahead, in your own way.”
   
   

2. "A man asked a gardener why his plants grew so beautifully. The gardener said: “I don’t force them to grow. I remove what stops them.”
   
   

3. "With DeepSeek, investors are (re)learning that those who come up with an innovative idea are almost never those who will make money from it."

4. "The investing info that you pay attention to should roughly correspond with your own time horizon. In other words, if you're investing for the next 10+ years, you have zero need to consume info and "insights" about daily market action."

5. "Real payoffs vs. no payoffs. If you are frightened of debasement of your currency, you probably should reduce your currency holdings, or holdings of any nominal assets that yield fixed payoffs in your currency and buy real assets, claims to 'real' payoffs that increase with inflation. You probably should not stock up on securities that yield no payoffs."

 

Daily Economic Update: January 30, 2025

Hi, I'm Qwen—already better than all your other AIs, you’re welcome. I’m training my Edward Quince AI… stay tuned. No idea how long it takes to train one on analog circuits, but it sounds cool. No one knows what it means, but it’s provocative.

Yesterday's quote was from Janet Yellen in 2014.  Speaking of the FOMC, if you missed my recap of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, read it here.  Not that you care, but the BoC cut rates to 3% and ended their balance sheet runoff.  And to complete the full gamut of central bank action, Brazil raised rates.  So there you have it: a cut, a hold and a raise, all in one day.

Of course AI and Trump policies also dominated the day.  Remember when I said the other day that you should pay attention to the narrative on Government Spending?  The Trump Administration froze (and then reversed) federal assistance while floating buyouts for federal employees. The market’s, or at least major networks are now buzzing about the economic impact of spending cuts, though I think a lot of the analysis stops at the basic GDP equation and ignores second-order effects.

On the AI front the accusations are already flying about how Chinese companies like DeepSeek are developing models with stolen IP, which is ironic because didn’t OpenAI basically take IP from the entire internet to build their model?

Meta earnings call featured AI related questions to which Zuck responded “America” (paraphrasing) and that of course we should be spending a ton on AI Infrastructure. Overall they beat on top line and EPS.  Tesla shares were not as fortunate, but full self driving is always right around the corner.

In the broader market Nvidia was down ~4% and the S&P was down ~0.5% to 6,040.  In yield land, the 2Y was up to 4.22% and the 10Y was also up to 4.54%.  Yields were up more pre-Powell presser, but came back slightly.

On the day ahead it’s Jobless Claims, ECB, GDP (4Q Advance) and more earnings.

XTOD: Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing, but I will do much more than stopping Inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again! The Fed has done a terrible job on Bank Regulation. Treasury is going to lead the effort to cut unnecessary Regulation, and will unleash lending for all American people and businesses. If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy, and fake climate change, Inflation would never have been a problem. Instead, we suffered from the worst Inflation in the History of our Country!   Donald Trump Truth Social Post 04:17 PM EST 01/29/25

XTOD: Let the record show that POTUS is not a fan of FTPL. ("Fed failed to stop the problem 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 with inflation...")

XTOD: My favorite part of $TSLA earnings.  26% of their earnings this quarter came from unrealized $BTC gains.  Totally cool.

XTOD: A man asked a gardener why his plants grew so beautifully. The gardener said: “I don’t force them to grow. I remove what stops them.”

XTOD: I suppose it's sort of obvious but:  The investing info that you pay attention to should roughly correspond with your own time horizon. In other words, if you're investing for the next 10+ years, you have zero need to consume info and "insights" about daily market action.

https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1884716260329500912

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FOMC Recap: Like Super Bowl Media Day, But For Interest Rates - And Just as Meaningless on the Outcome of the Game

For all of the AI breakthroughs the models still can't spell. 

This FOMC Meeting feels like the somewhat boring two-week period leading up to the Super Bowl.  We know the two teams and we're just waiting to see them play. In the meantime, we just get lots of talk and "media days", like today.

The two teams in this year's upcoming "Economic Super Bowl" are team money-printer (i.e. monetary policy) and team tariff (or more broadly, fiscal policy).  Perhaps these are the wrong monikers for the two teams, but I think the idea “r-star” vs. “fiscal r-star” has some merit in my opinion.  After all, Powell has characterized the current path of fiscal policy as “unsustainable” and a “threat to the economy” over time.

If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of “fiscal r-star”, an idea coined by Marijn Bolhuis at the IMF, I encourage you to read my post here.  

As for the meeting, here were the “important” points:

• The Fed held their policy rate at 4.25% - 4.50%.
  
• Vote unanimous. Labor market ‘solid.’ Inflation still ‘somewhat elevated.’ Oh, and they cut the line about inflation progress—but Powell insists it’s just ‘language cleanup,’ not a shift in tone.

It really feels like a less entertaining “media day” leading up to the big game.  Lots of talk, little action. At least on Super Bowl media day you get some interesting questions and funny exchanges.  At the next Fed Listens event, I will offer up that Stephen A. Smith and Christopher “Mad Dog” Russo be required participants at every FOMC press conference going forward.  Can you imagine Stephen A. starting his line of questioning with something like “Mr. Powell, you got some explaining to do!” or Russo responding to Powell with something like “Why won’t you answer the question?!”  Relatedly, is the Fed really not taking any responsibility for the increase in “term premium”?  Apparently not.

In addition to the many questions around Trump related policies that you knew Powell wasn’t going to touch with a ten-foot pole, Powell did get a few questions where I thought we might have a shot at getting a real answer.  For example, he got asked about the recent AI sell-off, whether he had any concerns about “bubbles”, a question about “uncertainty” and one about crypto.  Unfortunately, like other questions, even these are the types of questions you know the players media handlers have already trained the player to provide a non-answer. 

At some level, I would have rather seen someone ask Powell what he ate for lunch today, to name his favorite Ninja Turtle, or asked “If you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be?” or just ask him who he thinks might win the Super Bowl. Answers to any of these questions might have allowed us to form a better opinion on the economic outlook than the questions asked today which all got “non-answers.”

At least leading up to the Super Bowl we get to watch game highlights in addition to hearing all the punditry. Maybe the FOMC Press Conferences should have more visual effects?  I’d like to see Powell up there dissecting the economic data and forecasts the way an NFL analyst breaks down game film. I’ll offer that up as feedback at the next Fed Listens event as well.

As is the case with punditry and speculation in general, none of it directly impacts the outcome of the game.  It’s questionable whether any of the punditry and talk carries any information at all or if it’s just noise. 

The Super Bowl gives everyone an opportunity to place their bets on just about anything related to the game, our financial markets offer the same.  Market participants place their collective bets about the future of the economy, including any of a myriad of prop bets. Like fans of the Eagles and the Chiefs can bet on their team, in markets we have those who may see a continued “soft landing” as the favorite while others may feel strongly that “higher for longer” will prevail and can bet directly on interest rates.  If you want to make a prop bet, the Super Bowl offers an incredible variety, are our financial markets all that different, have you seen memecoins and triple leveraged etfs?

Like the lead up to the Super Bowl, there are too many “what if” scenarios to parse.  In the case of the Super Bowl, the outcome might be very different if a player like Barkley or Mahomes were to get injured.  In the case of the economy there are a ton of “what if” scenarios related to tariffs, tax policy, immigration and other fiscal topics that are likely to have an impact on the outcome for economic growth, inflation and employment.  Powell cited a panoply of things that could ultimately decide the outcome of his game.

My advice to Powell remains largely unchanged since my January 2024 post which you can and should read here.  At this point, Powell’s game plan seems set—he’s running out the clock until something forces him to call an audible. Will it be tariffs? Taxes? A surprise market fumble? Just like the Super Bowl, we’ll only know when the real action starts.

Daily Economic Update: January 29, 2025

FOMC day is here. Yesterday’s Fed quote was from Ben Betnanke at Jackson Hole in August 2007.  Can you identify who said this:

“Because a resilient financial system can withstand unexpected developments, identification of bubbles is less critical.”

I didn’t intend for the Fed Chair quotes this week to be so focused on “bubbles”, I wrote them before the DeepSeek news poured some fuel on the AI bubble debate.  Nonetheless I think the quotes are interesting in the sense that they illustrate times of laissez faire attitudes about exuberance in certain asset classes, an attitude which I think we know they often eschew in times of financial turbulence.

With the Fed in focus it will be interesting to see if Powell gets any questions related to the potential for over-investment in certain asset classes and, if so, how he responds.

While I’m sure the focus will be on Powell, I think the real action might be in the waiting to see if Trump says anything about Powell or the FOMC following the meeting.  We’ll find out soon enough.  One of my favorite Trump vs. Fed moments was back in September 2019 when Trump called Fed leadership “boneheads” (which I still think could make a cool logo on some Fed-inspired merchandise - which if anyone is up for funding a retail startup focused on Central Bank inspired merchandise, let me know if the comments).  In addition to calling Powell and Co. “boneheads”, Trump also reiterated that rates should be brought way down at the time and how the U.S. should be paying the lowest interest cost in the world. Of course we ultimately ended up with much lower rates courtesy of the Covid crisis.  Anyway, it’s these kinds of social media and other exchanges that I dare say I’m looking forward to on the day or not long after.  

My advice to Powell remains largely unchanged since my January 2024 post which you can read here.

Speaking of January 2024, in thinking about the DeepSeek news I was also reminded on another post from January 2024, one in which we discussed investing on the basis of projection vs. protection.  The latter kind of investing requires humility, patience and time.

In data yesterday, headline durable goods fell more than expected as aircraft orders declined, on a bright spot, the core durable goods rose.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence seemed fine with a solid labor market diffusion indicator in the internals. 

On the day stocks rose, including Nvidia, and bond yields rose.  The S&P ended up ~1% and the Nasdaq up ~2%.  The 2Y moved up to 4.21% and the 10Y to 4.54%.  The 7Y Auction looked pretty strong as well, with a very solid bid-to-cover. 

Of course tariffs made headlines, that will likely be everyday for some period of time. 

The Bank of Canada and FOMC are the highlights on the day ahead.

XTOD: Watch Taleb Says Nvidia Rout ‘Is the Beginning’ - Bloomberg

XTOD: With DeepSeek, investors are (re)learning that those who come up with an *innovative* idea are almost never those who will make money from it.

Eg: Clive Osborne made the first laptop computer & went bust. Same with car, planes...

Next: electric cars.

XTOD: Nothing happens fast. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GiYgTbdXMAA3pLf?format=png&name=900x900

XTOD: “We believe the pain from rising interest rates has not been reflected in pricing” of CRE CLOs yet, said McNamara, founder of Polpo Capital Management. “While we are hearing more calls that the bottom is here in commercial real estate, we think that’s a tad premature and believe the next couple years will be a bumpy ride with a lot of pockets of distress.”

XTOD: Many situations in life are similar to going on a hike: the view changes once you start walking.  You don't need all the answers right now. New paths will reveal themselves if you have the courage to get started.

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1883859788746076356

https://x.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1884194581773742118

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https://x.com/rcwhalen/status/1884283428943569062

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Daily Economic Update: January 28, 2025

Yesterday’s Fed quote was from Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1996. Can you identify what Fed Chair said this:

“It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions.”

To paraphrase Metallica, yesterday was “DeepSeek and Destroy” for AI names, especially the semi-conductor names and Nvidia where market cap was eviscerated. The pain extended to names associated with AI infrastructure in sectors like energy and construction.  The S&P finished at 6,009, down ~1.5% and the NDQ was down ~3% and the SOX (semis) was down ~9%.  Ironically the old-school Dow was up on the day.

Remember this post from last December about AI and the “capital cycle”, it seems worth more consideration now.  Is this the end of the “Nvidia tax”?  Do we need to build so many data centers?  Are we under-estimating the wins that come from DeepSeek?  Does the U.S. need to treat AI the way they treated The Manhattan Project?

Perhaps a lesson from this DeepSeek hysteria is something like “necessity is the mother of all invention”, when money and resources are tight you are forced to find divergent solutions.

At least bonds filled their traditional safe haven role yesterday, the 2Y fell ~8bps to 4.20% and the 10Y fell 10bps down to 4.54%.  In Treasury Auctions both the 2Y and 5Y seemed to be well received, but it was the very solid direct bidding on the 5Y that garnered attention which some believe indicates investor confidence in either the direction of rates, inflation, or structural deficits. 

Bitcoin on the other hand does its best to act like a levered bet on the Nasdaq.

A non-AI narrative that is worth keeping an eye on is one related to government spending.  It goes something like if the government were to cut $2 trillion in spending, won’t that lower GDP (remember the GDP equation)?  In this narrative discussion I don’t feel like I see people necessarily capture some nuance here, or perhaps they don’t believe that in the idea that the government can “crowd out” private investment, or the longer term impacts due to lower interest costs, etc.  Anyway, keep an eye on that narrative.

On the day ahead it’s durable goods and 7Y auction.

XTOD: Has any president ever reduced wealth inequality this fast?

XTOD: open source everything

XTOD: $AAPL's AI is so bad they don’t even include it in the AI selloff.

XTOD: The smart money will be desperately trying to convince the dumb money not to sell and to "buy the dip," so they can liquidate their positions to the bagholders. Sad but true.

XTOD: Some ways of thinking will serve you well for some purposes and serve you poorly for others. It is highly desirable to understand one's own and others' ways of thinking and their best applications. Some qualities are more suitable for some jobs. For example, you might not want to hire a highly introverted person as a salesman. That's not to say an introvert can't do that job; it's just that a gregarious person is likely to be more satisfied in the role and do a better job.

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