Hi, I'm Qwen—already better than all your other AIs, you’re welcome. I’m training my Edward Quince AI… stay tuned. No idea how long it takes to train one on analog circuits, but it sounds cool. No one knows what it means, but it’s provocative.
Yesterday's quote was from Janet Yellen in 2014. Speaking of the FOMC, if you missed my recap of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, read it here. Not that you care, but the BoC cut rates to 3% and ended their balance sheet runoff. And to complete the full gamut of central bank action, Brazil raised rates. So there you have it: a cut, a hold and a raise, all in one day.
Of course AI and Trump policies also dominated the day. Remember when I said the other day that you should pay attention to the narrative on Government Spending? The Trump Administration froze (and then reversed) federal assistance while floating buyouts for federal employees. The market’s, or at least major networks are now buzzing about the economic impact of spending cuts, though I think a lot of the analysis stops at the basic GDP equation and ignores second-order effects.
On the AI front the accusations are already flying about how Chinese companies like DeepSeek are developing models with stolen IP, which is ironic because didn’t OpenAI basically take IP from the entire internet to build their model?
Meta earnings call featured AI related questions to which Zuck responded “America” (paraphrasing) and that of course we should be spending a ton on AI Infrastructure. Overall they beat on top line and EPS. Tesla shares were not as fortunate, but full self driving is always right around the corner.
In the broader market Nvidia was down ~4% and the S&P was down ~0.5% to 6,040. In yield land, the 2Y was up to 4.22% and the 10Y was also up to 4.54%. Yields were up more pre-Powell presser, but came back slightly.
On the day ahead it’s Jobless Claims, ECB, GDP (4Q Advance) and more earnings.
XTOD: Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing, but I will do much more than stopping Inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again! The Fed has done a terrible job on Bank Regulation. Treasury is going to lead the effort to cut unnecessary Regulation, and will unleash lending for all American people and businesses. If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy, and fake climate change, Inflation would never have been a problem. Instead, we suffered from the worst Inflation in the History of our Country! Donald Trump Truth Social Post 04:17 PM EST 01/29/25
XTOD: Let the record show that POTUS is not a fan of FTPL. ("Fed failed to stop the problem 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 with inflation...")
XTOD: My favorite part of $TSLA earnings. 26% of their earnings this quarter came from unrealized $BTC gains. Totally cool.
XTOD: A man asked a gardener why his plants grew so beautifully. The gardener said: “I don’t force them to grow. I remove what stops them.”
XTOD: I suppose it's sort of obvious but: The investing info that you pay attention to should roughly correspond with your own time horizon. In other words, if you're investing for the next 10+ years, you have zero need to consume info and "insights" about daily market action.
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1884716260329500912
https://x.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1884745705983549819
https://x.com/Dr_Gingerballs/status/1884719232690057685
https://x.com/Nithya_Shrii/status/1884203268097847622
https://x.com/christine_benz/status/1884727614671139286
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