Daily Economic Update: February 14, 2024

I was going to take my wife out for Valentine's Day, but after yesterday's inflation print I just can't afford it. According to an article on Travel and Tour World (whatever that publication is - it still probably gets more readers than this blog, so who am I to criticize) 46% of American's say inflation will affect their Valentine's Day plans, but despite this 33% say it's worth dipping into credit card debt for a Valentine's Day gift.  Another 24% of American's don't plan to spend any money on a gift this year. The data appears to be from this WalletHub survey  

So when's the first rate hike?

It was in July 1996, per the FOMC Meeting Transcript, that the U.S. history of 2% inflation target was born:

MS. YELLEN. Mr. Chairman, will you define "price stability" for me?

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Price stability is that state in which expected changes in the general price level do not effectively alter business or household decisions.

MS. YELLEN. Could you please put a number on that? [Laughter]

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.

This exchange was part of a long Yellen exchange, in which Yellen argued for some positive inflation under the "greasing-the-wheels argument".  

Anyway, the point is, I don't think we're at a point that would meet Greenspan's general, non-numerical criteria, which would be a place where people generally don't think about inflation when making decisions.

 
If, and it's a big if, the Fed is able to do it's job of overseeing the financial system (again, it's a big "if"), then I'll be all-in on rate cuts the day the next CPI, PPI or PCE report isn't made into a national spectacle.  That's the day I will feel confident we have achieved price stability and that rates are risking being restrictive. 

In case you forgot why inflation is harmful, Irving Fisher can remind you here.

Bad day for stocks and bonds yesterday.  Fixed income doesn't like inflation and yields finished the day up 15-20bps with the 2Y at 4.66% and the 10Y at 4.33%.

XTOD: Ok, there’s a lot of bullshit making the rounds. Ex this, ex that, not so bad, blabla… 

This is a terrible print for the Fed. There’s no sugar coating it. They will need to react to it one way or another.  Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is up a fucking 85 bp m/m. That’s what Fed likes to watch. That’s the largest monthly jump since April 22.  Shelter accelerated. Medical care, recreation and tuition all ripped.   First foregone conclusion: cuts need to be pushed back. For now it’s June for the 1st full cut. Might still be a bit too ambitious.   Second conclusion: now just above 90 bp of cuts FY 24, also way above the Fed guided 75 bp, which is starting to look a bit too optimistic.   Someone check on Claudia Sahm

XTOD: Core CPI comes in hotter than expected, 0.4% in the month of January--which is a 4.8% annual rate.  I'm not a big fan of second derivative forecasting but those of you who are should be worried. Annual rates:  12 months: 3.9% 6 months: 3.6% 3 months: 4.0% 1 month: 4.8%

XTOD: Now is the part where we shift from "See, it was transitory all along!" back to "This is really holding us back, we need to raise the target."  Get ready to start hearing it again, because it's coming!

XTOD: Inflation - it's like trying to lose 20lbs. The first 10 come off like butter. The last ten are a root canal.

XTOD: Because the proper benchmarks for volatility laundered returns are only other volatility laundered returns.

XTOD: I've become convinced that if Biden is going to actually run for president in an electorate where 90% of independents are worried about his age, he should say fuck it and talk about his age *constantly* but only in the context of Trump being 4 yrs younger and 4x crazier

Daily Economic Update: February 13, 2024

Thanks to Bill Ackman I'm trying to determine how my name will determine my destiny...we get it, his name equals his destiny as Billionaire Activist Man.  I asked Ackman what my name means and he replied,  "It's so obvious, Edward Quince equals educating people about the pear shaped fruits of investing."  I didn't have time to ask more, he was too busy on a WhatsApp with 50 other billionaires complaining about Harvard, so I'm left to wonder what he'd come up with for Taylor Swift? 

CPI Day, which will be calculated using updated seasonal adjustments and new weights for 2024.  Will the bond markets and the Fed get numbers that make them happy?  I suppose "good" is continued signs of disinflation and more specifically slowing in services and rents.

Yesterday's NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations showed: "Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one- and five-year ahead horizons, at 3.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, according to the January Survey of Consumer Expectations. Expectations at the three-year-ahead horizon declined to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent. Perceptions of credit access improved notably, with a smaller share of respondents saying it is harder to obtain credit now than it was a year ago and a larger share reporting it is now easier. The share of respondents expecting tighter credit conditions a year from now also declined."   

More interesting to me is that there remains a high degree of inflation uncertainty and data showing consumers continue to believe there is a relatively high probability of inflation being above 4% in the next year.  

Other than that you can see if ARM shares continue to pop and see how much further Bitcoin can rise now that it's retook 50K.

XTOD: The fresh MBA grad who just landed a job at McKinsey arriving at your company’s office to present a pitch deck he copied and pasted recommending that your company should simply generate more revenue and cut expenses

XTOD: This week's anticipated data release is the January CPI  Wall Street forecasters expect the core CPI index rose nearly 0.3% from December, lowering the 12-month rate a touch to 3.8%

They see the headline index up 0.15% from November, dropping the 12-month rate to 2.9% (vs 3.4%)

XTOD: “Do we want NATO to pay more? Of course we do. But the last thing we’re going to do is side with a thug. Keep in mind, Putin kills his opponents,” Ambassador  @NikkiHaley   tells 

@FerroTV ,  @lisaabramowicz1  and me.

XTOD: FanDuel says it took in more than 14 million bets on the Super Bowl. Total amount bet? $307 million.

XTOD: If you’re glued together and honorable and get up every morning and keep learning every day and you’re willing to go in for a lot of deferred gratification all your life, you’re going to succeed. — Charlie Munger

XTOD: The Nvidia run up is funny but it’s even more funny when you remember Cathie Wood sold right before

Daily Economic Update: February 12, 2024

It was between this or the many memes of Kelce yelling at Reid

Why the day after the Super Bowl is not a national holiday remains a mystery. 

On Friday the S&P closed above 5K for the first time ever.  Yields continued to move higher over the last week. The 2Y is close to reclaiming 4.50% as the timing of rate cuts continues to get pushed back, while the 10Y is 4.18%.

The week ahead features CPI on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Thursday as highlights.

Today: fedspeak

Tue: CPI

Wed: Valentine's Day 

Thur: Retail Sales, jobless claims, 

Fri: Housing starts and building permits, PPI and UofM survey

XTOD: Heard from our NYC office that they went out to get bagels as a team today, some new analyst ordered a scooped bagel and the rest of the deal team beat the shit out of him and now we have an incoming lawsuit

XTOD: We’re all living through a great enshittening, in which the services that matter to us, that we rely on, are turning into giant piles of s**t. It’s frustrating. It’s demoralising. It’s even terrifying https://on.ft.com/48bnYyv

XTOD: "Margin of safety—you can also call it room for error or redundancy—is the only effective way to safely navigate a world that is governed by odds, not certainties. And almost everything related to money exists in that kind of world."  — Morgan Housel

XTOD: Positioning over predicting.

XTOD: "Then I get that feeling...which is, 'I don't care who reads this, I don't care what happens to this, this is mine, no one's taking it away from me, I am doing this at the expense of all other things.'"  (

@SomanChainani   on the  @tferriss podcast)  Beautiful. This is the definition of authenticity.

XTOD: Macro is Hard   "It’s fine to have views on the economy. It’s fine to listen to other people’s views on the economy. It’s rarely helpful to act on those views when it comes to your portfolio."  https://buff.ly/3Uz4XTm 

XTOD: Great summary by  @I_Am_NickBloom  “So the big-name CEOs and Politicians claiming WFH is damaging growth have got it 100% wrong. WFH is likely powering the current economic boom by increasing labor supply and productivity, while also improving personal and family time.”  Women plus flexibility is profitable. Who knows what I might have accomplished if I have had flexibility during my career. It would have been a lot easier and humane. TY Nick. 👏paying it forward in every way I can.

XTOD: Chernobyl's mutant wolves appear to have developed resistance to cancer, study finds. The wolves are exposed to cancer-causing radiation as they roam the wastelands of the abandoned city - with researchers finding part of their genetic information seems resilient to increased risk of the disease. https://news.sky.com/story/chernobyls-mutant-wolves-appear-to-have-developed-resistance-to-cancer-study-finds-13067292

Daily Economic Update: February 9, 2024

Another relatively strong/low jobless claim report, despite the incessant headlines of layoffs.  Yields rose a few bps as the S&P crossed but couldn’t hold 5K.   The 30Y Auction was also strong, marking a strong week for demand for U.S. govt. debt.  Otherwise Chinese deflation is out there and for now it doesn't seem like the decline in Chinese equities and the real estate crisis is at a level yet that will lead to any meaningful global risk aversion.  Perhaps the bigger question is what will the impact of ailing U.S. CRE (particularly office) be on some foreign banks and investment firms?

I was wondering why I couldn't get Snoop Dogg's cereal at Walmart, per CNBC: "According to the lawsuit, when it was placed on shelves, Snoop Cereal was popular and sold well. However, the products were quickly taken off the shelves, leaving shoppers wondering where to find them, the suit says."

XTOD: Have a buddy who is feeding workplace conflicts into ChatGPT and asking it to analyze the situation and propose his course of action based on the 48 Laws of Power 

He is definitely going to either be promoted or fired in the next 6 months. Excited to find out which it is

XTOD: Fed officials love to pretend they don’t wade into fiscal matters, but the Fed paying interest on reserves (IOR) *is deficit spending*. Hell, all Fed spending goes right out of the budget via reduced remittances. Not to mention the rate hikes themselves, obviously.

XTOD: Monetary & fiscal policy is linked via a consolidated government budget constraint. But IOR is not in itself  “deficit spending.” (It’s possible to pay IOR and run a surplus). Comments on post below are bizarre.

XTOD: MMTers: "We never said deficits don't matter...they can cause inflation if they push the economist past capacity" 

Congress: Here's $4 trillion over 2 years to push the economy past capacity. 

Economy: Here's 7% inflation. 

MMTers: "Look at this supply shock"

XTOD: Choose a career you love and you’ll never work a day in your life because that field probably isn’t hiring.

XTOD: Watching the Presidents press conference in real time, responding to the special prosecutor’s report alleging cognitive decline.  This was the worst possible moment to confuse Egypt with Mexico while answering a question on Gaza. 

Daily Economic Update: February 8, 2024

New all-time highs on the S&P.  The earnings picture to date has been pretty solid.  Yields ended the day slightly higher despite regional bank fears. The 10Y Treasury auction was strong with the largest stop thru when issued since last February.  Fedspeak generally held the line on the desire to see more evidence that inflation will get back to target before initiating cuts.  Continue to see various takes on Powell's 60 Minutes appearance, specifically around his calling the national debt unsustainable.  Those takes include views from the MMT crowds view that there is nothing unsustainable about the debt (but that the Fed should cut rates), and views of certain famed investors clamoring for how the Fed needs to cut rates to keep the deficit from continuing to grow (not to mention how they could really use low rates to sustain certain investments). 

I obviously don't know Powell (I once rode an elevator with Bernanke), but I wonder if he would agree with this quote:

“I define central bank independence in one sentence, it's the ability to raise interest rates when the Treasury doesn't want you to. And the Treasury almost never wants you to, because of the cost of the debt.” – Peter Stella 

On the day ahead it's jobless claims and the 30Y auction. Other than that I guess we'll see if the Tucker-Putin interview drops. 

XTOD: One of the biggest mistakes by finance idiots* is to conflate tail risk awareness with bearishness. 

Believing in Black Swans ≠ Permabears.  * Short for fucking idiots.

XTOD: BREAKING: The winner of the Nevada Republican Primary election is literally "None of These Candidates."  Over 61% of the votes are for "None of These Candidates."  This is double the 32% that Nikki Haley, the second place candidate, received.  Donald Trump was not on the ballot.

XTOD: Yet another example of monetary policy in action - rich people (credit scores >760) were taking out massive amounts of mortgage debt to bid up the price of housing until the Fed started tightening policy in early-2022 https://newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/i

XTOD: My undergraduate thesis was on this very question.  I argued that religions can be modeled as providers of social insurance, and that the US secularized after Europe due to our under-developed welfare state.  To test this, I showed that the post-'90s "secular boom" was associated with Medicaid expansions in prior years at both the state and census division level, particularly the '80s expansion to uninsured kids and the explosion in federal payments to charity hospitals after the '86 budget act. 

In essence, it seems like Medicaid crowded-out the social insurance function of religion for many parents, leading to a cohort of kids who grew up with weaker affiliation. As a secondary effect, the growth in federal payments also induced many sectarian hospitals to be bought-out by secular networks. There's a sizable literature showing a similar relationship holds cross-nationally as well as in micro, such as Dan Hungerman's work showing the negative impact of welfare expansions on church donations.  This was my first empirical paper and, while I remain concerned about spurious correlation, I think there's more than enough "there there" to at least make this mechanism plausible. I would love for someone with better stats abilities to try to replicate it using the latest data, as I agree with David that it is an important and still under-theorized question.

XTOD: The 32-year-old banker, whose satirical alter ego has gained a cult-like following on Instagram, reveals his identity in an FT interview: https://on.ft.com/3OuCiuH

Daily Economic Update: February 7, 2024

The S&P advanced as yields fell as the market digested rising consumer debt levels and Fedspeak.  The 3Y auction seemed decent with pricing thru where when issued was trading.   Mester seemed to indicate the Fed will cut this year, but that there's no reason to rush and likely no need to cut aggressively.  We get more Treasury supply today and Thursday along with more Fedspeak.

On this blog I think I've intentionally or at least subconsciously written about noise, narratives, and forecasting.  In writing about these topics, I have tried to highlight what I see as the challenges that come from simplifying the complex in such a manner that creates a false sense of certainty.  That's not to say that simplification cannot be an appropriate way to make an important message accessible, but rather to build awareness that the ability to create vague, simple messages often wrapped in a well crafted veneer that is alluring, is a trick employed by charlatans throughout history  to cement their wealth and power at others expense (see post on finfluencers and Mill's Civilization essay) .  Obviously with social media and AI, the ability for those who want to create cultlike followings and draw people into otherwise ridiculous ideas has grown and will continue to grow exponentially.  The risk of falling into the simple, vague, but alluring promises is particularly high in financial services and probably a risk we'd be wise to realize exist.

"For years the financial services have been making stock-market forecasts...they are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Wherever possible they hedge their opinions...in our view...this segment of their work has no real significance except for the light it throws on human nature in the securities markets. Nearly everyone interested in common stocks wants to be told be someone else what he thinks the market is going to do. The demand being there, it must be supplied."  - Ben Graham

The tricks of today's charlatans are very similar to those played in the past, just now done easily with scale.  Awareness of the games played in crafting messages and building a following is a first step towards building a better understanding of potential tricks and determining the appropriate course of action from there.  In fostering awareness of the methods used by charlatans, author Robert Greene, whom I referenced in my FOMC Recap, has what he calls "The Science of Charlatanism Or How to Create a Cult In Five Easy Steps".   Those five steps are (with reduced commentary):

1. Keep it vague; keep it simple: promise something great and transformative, but use total vagueness.  People want to hear a simple solution will cure their problem.  If you explain in detail the benefits to someone, you will be expected to satisfy them, so avoid details.
   
   
2. Emphasize the Visual and Sensual over the Intellectual:  dazzle your followers with visual splendor, colorful charts, new technological gadgets - anything that creates a pseudo-scientific veneer. 
   
   
3. Borrow the Forms of Organized Religion to structure the group - talk and act like a prophet to hide the fact you are a dictator.  Ask people to sacrifice something to your cause (ex. sign up for your newsletter which gives you money).  Even better if you tier your community.
   
   
4. Disguise Your Source of Income - you must never been seen as hungry for money and the power it brings.  Never reveal your wealth comes from your followers' pockets.
   
   
5. Set Up an Us-Versus-Them Dynamic - make it so that any outsider who questions you or tries to reveal the charlatan nature of your belief system can now be described as an enemy.

I can't speak for everyone, but I see so many of those dynamics at play particularly in social media.  You too can probably think of various accounts in the finance "crowds" on X/Twitter or YouTube particularly where the topic is something to do with things like crypto, MMT, certain company's stock (ex. Tesla), "experts" explaining the recent moves in a market, predicting a soon to come recession or crash, people talking their own book, etc.  Once you're aware, you probably then think about where else some of these dynamics are involved in other areas of your life.

"Men are so simple of mind, and so much dominated by their immediate needs, that a deceitful man will always find plenty who are ready to be deceived."  -Niccolo Machiavelli

XTOD:  Great thread outlining the reality and uncomfortable truth behind the headlines and incessant CNBC pumps & promos  https://x.com/ttp_cap/status/1754917296638767318?s=20

XTOD: Adam Neumann just totally crushed the ZIRP era. Nobody close.

XTOD: When Barry Sternlicht was 32 y/o he started Starwood with Bob Faith and an assistant. 18 months later, after acquiring 8,000 MF units, he sold to Sam Zell’s Equity Residential REIT in return for 20% ownership.  By the time he was 37 they owned Starwood Hotels and Lodgings Trust, the largest Hotel REIT in the world with $20B AUM and 120,000+ employees across the globe.  Today Starwood Capital Group and affiliated entities manage over $120B in assets across the globe and have become the giant in the room.  Today’s episode is full of incredible stories of how they climbed to the top of the real estate world: 0:00 - AI & Hotels  6:34 - The Midas touch  8:16 - Scaling to 120k people in 7 years 14:00 - Shared Pair REITs  27:15 - Thoughts on Blackstone  35:25 - How to buy a REIT 39:45 - Taking a company from $1B in AUM to $10B   48:50 - How did you keep Starwood Capital moving while you stepped away?  58:22 - Selling Caesar’s Palace 1:07:53 - Thoughts on the market in 2024 https://twitter.com/i/status/1754852728344363340

 

 

Daily Economic Update: February 6, 2024

Better than expected ISM, with the prices paid component markedly higher, coupled with continued digestion of recent strong data and Powell's 60 Minutes appearance lead to a pop higher in yields.  Maybe markets are starting to come back around to the idea that the Fed won't be cutting 6-7 times this year.  The recent moves higher following last Friday's jobs numbers have the 10Y yield back to 4.15%, which marks a solid move off recent lows of ~3.80%.  The 2Y is almost back to 4.50% off recent low of 4.20%.

The last week has me wondering whether we've re-entered the end of summer/early fall of 2023.  It was during that time period that all of the talk from the Fed (including Powell's J-Hole speech) seemed to focus on uncertainty around estimates of the neutral rate of interest.  We'll have to wait for both the NY and Richmond Fed to update their estimates of the neutral rate.  Yesterday we had Kashkari out wondering if neutral rate has increased post pandemic https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it

On the day ahead it's Fedspeak starting at noon.

XTOD:  ISM Services 53.4, Exp. 52.0, Last 52.3  ISM Prices Paid explode to 64.0, Exp. 56.4, Last 56.7  When is the Fed hiking again?

XTOD: "Stock options is always an expense. Its in kind but Analysts reverse it. It's like a pizza store owner giving away free pizza because u can't supplement the wage because u can't pay them high enough wage. It's eating into profit & got to be factored in" 👌--- @AswathDamodaran

XTOD: There's a difference between "I don't have the time" and "This isn't a priority." It's okay to communicate the latter even though you always say the former. Be brave, friends. We're all protecting our time and attention.

XTOD: "By working faithfully eight hours a day, you may eventually get to be a boss and work twelve hours a day." — Robert Frost, American poet and winner of four Pulitzer Prizes

Daily Economic Update: February 5, 2024

I wrote this while wearing an Apple Vision Pro, while driving a Tesla Cybertruck...you're welcome.

Friday's job report was a blowout, leading to the question of what is the need to cut rates?  Average hourly earnings was also much stronger than anticipated.  Maybe Powell was onto something when he expressed a desire to see more data before confirming the Fed's policy was restrictive.   

Some recent data might lead one to wonder where the elusive "neutral rate" is these days. Powell was asked this in his news conference last week and uncertainty over the neutral rate is now a long forgotten topic, but was the topic of Powell's J-Hole address.  Continued strong GDP data and Atlanta Fed GDP estimates for 1Q2024 with a 4 handle, obviously lead to the question how does the economy keep expanding.  Economist Scott Sumner tackled this topic in his post, Why might I be wrong about trend GDP?   In basic terms, the economy can grow by doing more with the same amount of resources (i.e. Productivity) or by increasing real economic inputs (ex. labor).  Sumner hits on the potential grow impact from the politically thorny topic of  immigration as an under-looked factor that could be increasing real GDP (see Powell comments from 60 Minutes below...maybe Sumner was onto something)....Elon Musk was busy sharing his own opinions on immigration this weekend.

Powell stayed busy in the news cycle with a 60 Minutes interview and candidate Trump indicating he won't reappoint Powell if elected.  I mentioned the need for the Fed to maintain independence in a charged political environment in my last FOMC Recap.

If you didn't watch Powell on 60 Minutes, he stuck to the FOMC script, implying that March will be too soon to cut rates and that the number of cuts priced in could be on the high side.  That said, here's a summary of what I considered to be notable quotes (my emphasis added):

•  Right. And we have to, we have to balance those two risks. There is no, you know, easy, simple, obvious path. We have to balance the risk of moving too soon, which, as you mentioned, or too late. And there are different risks. We think the economy's in a good place. We think inflation is coming down. We just want to gain a little more confidence that it's coming down in a sustainable way toward our 2% goal……
• And I can't overstate how important it is to restore price stability, by which I mean inflation is low and predictable and people don't have to think about it in their daily lives…
• I would say it this way. It's really going to depend on the data. The data will drive these decisions..[As to imply there is ever a time that they don't depend on the data]
• We do not consider politics in our decisions. We never do. And we never will....You know, I would just say this. Integrity is priceless. And at the end, that's all you have. And we in, we plan on keeping ours. [Looks like Powell read my FOMC recap]
• Well, interesting, you know, we were being honest, and I was being honest in saying that we thought there would be pain. And we thought that the pain would likely come, as it has in so many past cycles, in the form of higher unemployment. That hasn't happened. It really hasn't happened...
• So, it, I would say this. In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The U.S. federal government's on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. I don't think that's at all controversial. ...
• I don't think there's much risk of a repeat of 2008. I also think, you know, we need to be careful about making proclamations about the -- particularly about the future. Things have surprised us a lot. [First I'll tell you that there is no risk of 2008, but then I'll hedge by telling you I can't predict the future...and that we're often wrong] But no, on this, on this, I do think it's a manageable problem. I think we're doing a lot to manage it.
• I think we need to just remember that we have this dynamic, innovative, flexible, adaptable economy. More so than other countries.....the United States has been the indispensable nation supporting and defending democracy, security arrangements, economic arrangements. We've been the leading voice on that. And it is clear that the world wants that. And I would want the United States to know, people in the United States to know, that this has benefited our country enormously. It benefits our economy so much to have this role.
• We had a combination of rising labor force participation in prime-age workers, and we also had with that, we had a resumption of immigration. So, there was really no immigration net in or very little during the pandemic...But in 2023, we saw immigration move back up to the levels that would have been normal before the pandemic.....Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger...I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.
•  I would say it this way. The economy's strong. The labor market's strong. Inflation's coming down. There's no reason why that can't continue. We're gonna try to use our tools to give the economy -- to continue to improve as inflation comes down. We'll give it every chance to do that. That's our plan. We don't have a perfect crystal ball about the future, and things could happen. But I do think the economy is in a good place, and there's every reason to think it can get better.

On the week ahead it will be ISM Services and Fedspeak.  And don't forget about geopolitics which Powell called the biggest risk in the near term.

XTOD: The hole in the border fence was way more interesting than Powell.

XTOD (reply): I disagree. He WANTS the subject of deficits to come up. And he WANTS the "politics" to be examined as well. His answer was strong. He knows the crossroads are coming, probably later this year. The Fed will have to decide whether to consider more QE to help Treasury sell debt.

XTOD: We generally don't need more data.  Just more insightfulness

XTOD: In the Fall of 2022 Powell was basically begging companies to fire ppl

We've added 4.1 million jobs since then and inflation is down 

Coming around to the idea no one really knows what truly drives the economy

And maybe monetary policy doesn't matter as much as we all think

XTOD: BARTIROMO: If things are so bad, how come the stock market is on a roll? 

TRUMP: Because they think I'm gonna be elected 

BARTIROMO: You think the stock market is rallying because people think you're going to be elected?

XTOD: James Clear: "I think about decisions in three ways: hats, haircuts, and tattoos. 

Most decisions are like hats. Try one and if you don't like it, put it back and try another. The cost of a mistake is low, so move quickly and try a bunch of hats. 

Some decisions are like haircuts. You can fix a bad one, but it won't be quick and you might feel foolish for a while.   That said, don't be scared of a bad haircut. Trying something new is usually a risk worth taking. If it doesn't work out, by this time next year you will have moved on and so will everyone else. 

A few decisions are like tattoos. Once you make them, you have to live with them. Some mistakes are irreversible. Maybe you'll move on for a moment, but then you'll glance in the mirror and be reminded of that choice all over again. Even years later, the decision leaves a mark. When you're dealing with an irreversible choice, move slowly and think carefully."  (From  @JamesClear 's 3-2-1 newsletter)