Daily Economic Update: June 2, 2025

A Good Month For Stocks

The S&P gained 6% on the month, ending at 5,911.  While stocks had a great month, at times it felt like the long-end of the treasury curve was the star of the show.  Overall the reality of May was that it was a bit of a mess and it can be somewhat amazing to remember how much we forgot (that sounds like a Yogi-ism).

So What Passed For “News” During May?

1. From Liberation Day to Legal Limbo: Obviously May ended with court related headlines, first a block, then a reinstatement, but mid-May featured the 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs with China and along the way there were plenty of headlines about tariff negotiations (UK, China, EU) or lack thereof.

2. Patient Powell:  We had the May 7 FOMC decision which left us with elevated risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate as markets and yields on the front-end of the curve rose about 20bps on the month.

3. Moody’s U.S. Credit Downgrade (Finally):  After years of playing the will-they/won’t-they game, Moody’s joined S&P and Fitch in downgrading U.S. debt. The market largely shrugged—but it gave us all an excuse to talk about fiscal r-star and bond vigilantes again.

4. AI Mountainhead:  Fitting that we ended a month where Nvidia’s earnings and Google’s Veo 3 reminded us that the AI narrative isn’t slowing down withHBO’s made for TV movie, Mountainhead, which gave us an interesting take on a future filled with AI deep fakes unleashed by models controlled by tech elites with questionable (at best) morals. 

5. Buffett Hands Over The Reigns: The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting saw Warren Buffett announce that Greg Abel will succeed him as CEO by the end of the year.  Buffett’s emphasis on patience, preparedness, and his belief in America are lasting lessons for a world that lacks the attention to learn them.

Speaking Of Lessons Learned

May gave us the opportunity to encounter a few pieces of wisdom.

1. “Uncertainty is Necessary” – Fisher Black’s Quiet Revolution.  For a blog that frequently highlights that the future is inherently uncertain, that forecasting is unreliable, and admitting “I Don’t Know” if often the most honest and practical answer. In a month filled with tariff uncertainty, we revisited Black’s 1986 paper Noise to explain how markets need uncertainty. Without it, no one would trade. Without disagreement, there’s no liquidity. Noise isn’t a bug—it’s the feature.

2. “Markets Need Virtue, Not Just Valuation” – Lessons from the Vatican.  While markets need trading, we talked about how business may need more virtue.  Drawing from Rerum Novarum and Centesimus Annus, we heard that capitalism without a moral foundation risks becoming a thinly disguised totalitarianism. Work isn’t just a transaction; it’s a vocation.

3. “Ricardian Equivalence Is Dead—Long Live the American Consumer”  The theory that people save when deficits rise? Not so much. May reminded us that consumers spend now, worry later. Debt is high, rates are high, and yet confidence surged.

4. “Debt is the Hidden Lever in ROE” – DuPont Deconstructed. We broke down DuPont analysis and asked: do investors really know how much leverage is baked into their portfolios? Financial performance looks great until rising rates hit the denominator.

5. “The Real Battle Is Over Narrative Ownership” -  From Kyla Scanlon’s Screwtape-inspired take on spiritual fatigue to our own reflections on market memory and subconscious investing, May reminded us: the economy is shaped by stories—and whose story wins matters.  As Howard Marks’ says: "the first cause [of market euphoria] is extreme brevity of the financial memory.”

What will June have in store for us, your guess is as good as mine.  As always, the most important insight may be timeless: your behavior matters more than your forecast.

Onto June and Jobs

While May started with a 2Y Treasury yield at 3.61% and the 10Y to 4.18%.  It ended with the 2Y up around 4% and the 10Y at 4.40%. The focus on deficits and the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill.  As yields remain in focus, we’ll see if investors turn their attention to the so-called Fed Model popularized by Ed Yardeni to ascertain whether stocks offer sufficient value.

On the week ahead, stateside we’ll hear more about whether and how China is cheating on the tariff pause, tariffs in general and we’ll get some jobs data.  We’ll also hear from some central bankers at the ECB and BoC in case you care.

Today: ISM Mfg, some Fedspeak

Tue: JOLTS, factory orders, more Fedspeak

Wed: ADP, ISM Services, Bank of Canada

Thur: ECB decision, jobless claims 

Fri: Jobs Day in ‘merica

XTODs:

XTOD: 30% or more of the Russian Air Force’s fleet of long-range nuclear-capable strategic bombers were reportedly damaged and/or destroyed during today’s operation by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), in what Russian milbloggers are calling “Russia’s Pearl Harbor”

XTOD: Light is distinctive only insomuch as it (like any massless particle) experiences no time, so all of its velocity vector points in the space directions, and therefore it moves with a purely *spatial* speed of c.   c is merely the conversion factor between space and time

XTOD: The TACO trade may be over! Make way for the BURRITO trade, where Trump Backs Up Rapidly, Regrets It, Then Overreacts!  (h/t Marc!). https://shrubstack.com/p/gag-in-may-and-shrub-away?r=at83k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

XTOD: Ezra Klein: Part of what's happening when you spend seven hours reading a book is you spend seven hours with your mind on a given topic. But the idea that ChatGPT can summarize it for you is nonsense.  The point is that books don't just give you information. They give you a container to think about a narrowly defined scope of ideas.   Downloading information is obviously part of why you read books. But the other part is that books let you ruminate on a topic with a level of depth that's hard to achieve on your own.

XTOD: Maxim: Stay away from people who put money over everything. These people just build themselves expensive prisons.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1929204143295500591

https://x.com/getjonwithit/status/1928808088229781517

https://x.com/agnostoxxx/status/1928898861197643911

https://x.com/david_perell/status/1927969902226460987

https://x.com/MJ_asymmetric/status/1928471467089387853

Daily Economic Update: May 20, 2025

Do You Even DuPont?

We see a million articles about the “fiscal disaster” of the U.S. government, the one entity that literally cannot default in the traditional sense of failing to repay as promised, but let’s be honest, do most investors have any idea how much debt is lurking in their portfolios?

Corporate debt and the amount of leverage in the corporate sector has taken a backseat to discussions around fiscal responsibility at the federal level. The most recent Federal Reserve Financial Stability report noted, “gross leverage of publicly traded corporations edged down but remained near the upper part of their respective historical ranges.”  And let’s face it that assumes the Fed can even measure all of the debt in the system appropriately.

You just don’t see a ton of articles talking about corporate debt and leverage, until you do (does anyone remember concerns over leveraged loans in 2019?), and that’s usually not until something is broken.  In the meantime corporate reports give you the data you need to help better understand how much leverage companies might be running.

We talked about leverage here. And if you want a deeper read, this Howard Marks memo is one of my favorites, summarizing leverage as: 

“Leverage is neither good nor bad in and of itself. In the right amount, applied to the right assets, it’s good. When used to excess given the underlying assets, it’s bad. It doesn’t add value; it merely magnifies both good and bad outcomes. So leverage shouldn’t be treated as a silver bullet or magic solution. It’s a tool that can be used wisely or unwisely.”

If you’ve ever nodded along while someone said “ROE looks strong,” but didn’t ask, “Yeah, but why?”, then allow me to reintroduce you to your friend DuPont.

DuPont, Not Just For Chemicals, But Decoding Returns

The starting point of DuPont analysis, or the decomposition of ROE, is that ROE is a function of how much a company earns from its assets and its use of financial leverage.  Companies can juice their ROE by earning more from their assets or taking on more debt. 

ROE = Net Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Financial Leverage

Translation: how much you earn on each sale (margin), how many sales you wring from your assets (efficiency), and how much of it you turbocharge with debt (leverage).

But the key here is this: leverage is a multiplier. A beautiful one when things go up. A wrecking ball when they don’t.

While companies seem to be covering that interest cost currently, the potential refinancing of longer term debt can still be a source of risks to companies earnings and investors returns. And if you listened to Jamie Dimon yesterday, he sees risks to corporate earnings.

A company with 15% ROE might look like a gem until you realize it’s built on 7x leverage and burning through cash to keep the dividend alive.

Is Leverage A Risk You Don’t See?

Morgan Housel once said, “Risk is what you don’t see.” Leverage is often exactly that—hidden in leases, obscured in footnotes (remember “Repo 105” and Lehman), normalized through buybacks.  Generally unseen until it’s not. 

This isn’t just a stock-picking problem. If index returns are juiced by levered ROE across sectors, what happens when that leverage turns from friend to foe? Valuations start to compress—not just because growth expectations fall, but because debt starts to demand its due.

So yes, DuPont is dusty. But in a world where debt isn’t cheap anymore and ROE math isn’t magic, maybe it’s time to revisit the fundamentals.  

Because if you’re holding companies whose returns are just borrowed performance, you might want to check what’s backing them.

And A Day After Moody’s Downgrade…

Corporate credit spreads were little changed in the face of the Moody’s downgrade as investors don’t believe country risk extends to corporate risk.  Yields on U.S. treasuries rose some only to retreat and ended the day little changed. The S&P was able to extend its winning streak to 6 days.

Fed officials continued to stress “wait and see” and you’re likely to hear the same message today.

In the meantime, ponder how much financial leverage you own via the S&P 500…and that’s before we even get around to talking about operating leverage.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: CEO Jamie Dimon: "Forward P/E ratios are around 20 or 21 today.  And you know, tariffs do affect the E...Earnings forecasts will come down. We started the year expecting earnings to be up 12%. Now it’s more like 6–7%. My guess? In six months, that could be zero. So earnings estimates have dropped—and that probably means P/E ratios will drop too. If P/E multiples fall by just one turn, that’s another 5% down. So between earnings and valuation compression, you could be looking at a 10% market impact. I think that’s a likely outcome, in my personal opinion",

XTOD: Wild. "PE distributions have fallen from 29% of NAV from 2014 to 2017 to only 11% last year. Endowments are rushing to complete sales ahead of potential changes to taxes, which could rise from 1.4% to 21%... 'We recently looked at a portfolio at 80-85 cents on the dollar'."

XTOD: Shocking to literally no one, Buy Now Pay Later loans are a ticking time bomb

XTOD: Jeff Bezos on creating a culture for missionaries: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GrVrWhnXEAETEg-?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1924496760786874800

https://x.com/TidefallCapital/status/1924497898412118404

https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1924526771934032363

https://x.com/FoundersPodcast/status/1924562453624479921

Daily Economic Update: May 14, 2025

May 14, 2025

The Market Has No Memory?

Obviously the market has no memory in the literal sense, it’s not a sentient being after all, but don’t we all use anthropomorphism when discussing the markets?  The way the collective “us” that is “the market” processes past market histories, the stories and emotions we assign to them, the way we like to look at charts, all give the market some semblance of a memory. 

After all, what is price action but the sum of expectations, reactions, traumas, and dreams—layered on by people who’ve been here before? And by people who think they’ve been here before.

The ghosts of 2008, the Covid crash, even the recent rate hikes still whisper through risk premiums and investor skittishness. They don't show up in earnings reports. But they show up in how fast we sell, how cautiously we re-enter, and how reflexively we chase when FOMO flips back on.

So when the S&P swings 1,000 points in six weeks, don’t just look at inflation data or jobless claims. Look at the psychology of price. Are we fighting the last war? Repeating the last mistake? Or just trying to forget?

Just over a month ago, the S&P index dipped below 5,000—headlines screamed correction, and everyone started whispering about stagflation. And yet here we are: ~5,900 and year-to-date losses erased. Fear forgotten. Again.

But not really forgotten. Because the market does remember. Not like a robot. Like a person. Because that’s what it is—a crowd with a collective memory, triggered by chart patterns, headlines, and the X accounts that want to remind you about the GFC, tech bubble, or depression.

It remembers pain. It remembers euphoria. And right now, it’s choosing euphoria again—at least until the next “unforeseen” event we’ll all pretend to be shocked by.

Because the market doesn’t suffer amnesia. It suffers denial.  As Howard Marks’ says: "the first cause [of market euphoria] is extreme brevity of the financial memory.”

Today’s Lesson: The Market Has a Subconscious (So Do You)

“Without our knowing it, we see reality through glasses colored by the subconscious memory of previous experiences.” Not the words you’d expect to see in a finance blog, but while the finance crowd’s subconscious doesn’t get airtime on CNBC it runs the show when the market swings a few percentage points. The problem is the collective subconscious probably doesn’t match your true goals and to make matters worse our own true goals can be buried within our own subconscious. 

The market’s subconscious shows up in sentiment, in panic, in denial and probably in every algorithm that is patterned off trading behavior.  The challenge is while the market memory is “real” it doesn’t fit into any spreadsheet, but we all see the subconscious of the collective leak out into the open when we get jarring moves.

If we want to invest well, dare I say sanely, we need a better relationship with our subconscious. The part of us that flinches as losses, panics at headlines, projects every fear into the next chart and also paradoxically gets lost in the euphoria when things are going well.

The monks say that prayer trains the inner life so they can find deeper truth.  Wall Street might say it is “process” that allows them to avoid falling prey to the delusions of the masses. But both are about cultivating awareness, discipline and humility. Finding space between reaction and response. 

You don’t beat the market by outsmarting it. You beat it by not becoming a puppet of your subconscious when it matters most.

So maybe the next time volatility spikes, don’t just check your exposure.

Check your interior life…and review these past posts, here and here. 

And if you don’t think all the investing greats would agree with this lesson then you're not paying attention.  

“Some people are not emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks" - Buffett

“The ability to keep raw irrational emotions under control" - Munger

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Trade war on, yields up. Trade war off, yields up. Inflation beat, yields up. Dollar down, yields up. Dollar up, yields up. Risk on, yields up. Risk off, yields up. 

That is why this is not a dip, this is a triple infection of the secular order, cyclical expansion, and US bubble all at once, from the highest valuations in a century, already mid-recession with no intent to ease monetarily, delinquencies at or near highs, credit turning down, rapid earnings downgrades and…Pro-cyclical fiscal austerity, if not by choice then by imposition.

XTOD: Absolutely disgusting.  For every $1 you deposit in your IRA, Basic Capital will match $4 as a loan.  But interest on that loan is 6.26% and the account costs $300/year to maintain. Plus, they charge 0.50%/year on the investments and take 5% of your gains.  GTFOH.

XTOD: In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended.  

I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. Here’s why.

XTOD: Most people endure decades of work they hate, hoping one day they’ll be free.  Naval calls this “the deferred life plan.” And he believes it’s a lie.  “Looking forward to vacations takes the joy out of every day.”  For Naval, life isn’t something to delay. It’s something to design.

XTOD: I routinely write “No hurry, no pause” at the top of my notebooks as a daily reminder. 

You can get 95% of the results you want by calmly putting one foot in front of the other. 

One former Navy SEAL friend once texted me a principle used in their training: “Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast.”  Perhaps I’m just getting old, but my definition of luxury has changed over time. Now, it’s not about owning a lot of stuff. Luxury, to me, is feeling unrushed. 

No hurry, no pause.

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https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1922315906530869381

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Daily Economic Update: May 9, 2025

They’ll Soon Be Driving Ford F-150s in the U.K.

I made that up, but I’m pretty sure F-150’s are not for sale in the U.K., but now that the Trump administration announced a preliminary U.K. trade deal that will open access for American exports,  the Brits can dream big.  Importantly, the trade deal keeps 10% blanket tariffs on U.K. imports, leading some to speculate that this 10% “minimum” may be the best countries can do in negotiations with the U.S. meaning higher tariffs might be here to stay.  Also in the U.K. rates were cut to 4.25%, while citing, you guessed it - “uncertainty”.

Stocks liked the news, sending the S&P up to 5,663.  Yields rose partly on the rotation into risk on the trade news, but possibly also due to the fact that consumers surveyed by the NY Fed continue to push up their inflation expectations, now at 4.8%.  The 2Y ended at 3.88% and the 10Y at 4.38%.

Leo XIV

But the real news of the day was the announcement of the first American Pope, Robert Francis Precost, a Villanova graduate. He has assumed the name of Leo XIV 

The last Pope Leo, was a defender of Capitalism back in 1891.  You probably don’t remember but back in September 2024, I introduced you to the last Pope Leo and his famous encyclical Rerum Novarum in this post.

Lessons In Capitalism From The Vatican

Capitalism has had many critics. The Vatican, however, might be one of its most thoughtful ones.

In 1891, Pope Leo XIII’s Rerum Novarum tackled the “worker question” head-on—before “inequality” was a talking point and before socialists had a PR team. He called out socialism for undermining private property rights which he viewed as fundamental human rights, but he also saw the dark side of unchecked capital: workers stripped of dignity, paid less than a living wage, treated as inputs on a spreadsheet. Sound familiar?

Rerum Novarum didn’t pick sides. It said both capital and labor were necessary, both had duties, and that the State should side with neither but protect the vulnerable. It wasn’t a call to redistribute wealth by force, but a call to justice. Work was a vocation, not just a transaction. Wages were to support life, not merely clear markets.

A century later, Centesimus Annus (JP2’s remix) reminded the post-Cold War crowd not to declare victory just because “real socialism” collapsed. Winning by default isn’t the same as being right. The encyclical warned that capitalism without virtue—or democracy without values—could become a “thinly disguised totalitarianism.”  And that Totalitarianism itself is seen as opposing the Church because it denies the transcendent dignity of the human person and rejects objective criteria of good and evil.  Totalitarianism flattens the person into a cog, denying their inherent dignity. That’s why Centesimus Annus sounds the alarm: a democracy without values is just totalitarianism with better branding. It’s not just about who owns the means of production—it’s about who owns the definition of “good.

The lesson? Markets and enterprise are good—but not gods. Freedom isn’t license. Work isn’t just a paycheck; it’s a path to purpose. Development must be more than GDP. Markets can be messy—but they leave space for initiative, dignity, and surprise. Totalitarianism doesn’t. It promises order, delivers despair, and grinds the person down to a tool. That’s why the Church, as the “safeguard of transcendence,” insists: man is not a means—even for record profits.

XTODs:

XTOD: "To attain knowledge add things every day. To attain wisdom subtract things every day." - Lao Tzu

XTOD: An unsettling investment fact:  Stocks will have half-decade to full decade periods where they underperform cash by a significant margin.  If you aren't mentally prepared for this, you may give up when such times arrive.

XTOD: This is not an SNL skit.  Howard Lutnick: we feel really good about the deal….We started at 10% tariffs and ended at 10% and the market for America is better and this is a perfect example of why Donald Trump produced Liberation Day.

XTOD: So... the digital world has nearly eliminated friction (ChatGPT writes essays, Meta's AI plays your friend). The physical world drowns in it (Newark airport, infrastructure crumbles). And for those who can afford it, friction becomes an optional aesthetic choice (West Village living, curated experiences).   

This is an economic system where frictionlessness is this weird commodity and understanding it is really important. Warren Buffett sees it too. He warned of maintenance coming due as he stepped down this past weekend. The simulation economy can't run without physical infrastructure (as many have said) but we've optimized for short-term ease over long-term resilience. 

We've created three separate worlds operating on entirely different rules - and different levels of friction. link in next post, enjoy! https://t.co/ct5nYA05E3

https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1920584518219805175

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https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1920517953566482672

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Daily Economic Update: April 30, 2025

GDP Now Or Never

There are genuine signs that some trade deals are getting done and positive news around removing “stacking” tariffs on autos. But at the same time, weakening U.S. data and a surge in pre-tariff imports suggest we may just be watching the calm before a downturn. Some pundits believe the knock on effect of the rush of imports into the U.S. currently is just foreshadowing the major decline that’s on the come, one that will lead to empty jobs and empty shelves.  You know a slump that could hit both employment and inventories hard. 

Don’t take my word for it, it’s what consumers tell the Conference Board, which reported that “business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.”  And they reported that “average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”

Maybe the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is onto something with a negative 1.5% estimate of 1Q2025 GDP? Guess we’ll see if they’re right when we get  the first official release of GDP this morning.

Elsewhere in data, job openings fell broadly, but with no indications that firings are rising. 

Soft Data, Meet Hard Data

In addition to 1Q GDP we’ll see how inflation is behaving before diving into stage start of earnings from tech behemoths Microsoft and Meta. Which I guess means we’ll get more insight on whether the AI hype is still driving earnings or running out of steam.

We enter the trading day with the S&P index at 5,560, on a little winning streak.  While the 2Y and 10Y are both testing year to date low yields at 3.66% and 4.18% respectively.

Before we move into May flowers, let’s pause to remember the April that was.

Circus Apriles Recap
April 2025 was exactly the kind of financial circus we've come to expect, just replace the clowns with talking heads yelling about tariffs and the tigers with volatile market swings that happened seemingly because someone sneezed near a headline.

"Liberation Day" on April 2nd, supposedly the day we'd get clarity on tariffs, arrived with all the fanfare of a damp squib, offering slim odds of actually knowing anything. Markets spent the month ping-ponging around tariff news, including a delightful moment where news of a 90-day pause got promptly "body-slammed by reality". 

Treasury yields bounced around like a pinball as markets debated if tariffs meant inflation or recession. Auctions showed tepid demand, and the "safe haven" label felt more like a "hot potato", thanks to the tariff drama.

While the Dollar decided to take a break from its "exorbitant privilege," weakening to under 100 on the DXY for the first time in three years. The Fed, those dependable "Powell Rangers," stuck to their script: solid economy, "somewhat elevated" inflation, "elevated uncertainty," and the ever-popular "proceed cautiously". riveting stuff.

Beyond the daily whipsaws, the month offered plenty of reminders that perhaps we really don't know what's going on, but that's okay because nobody else does either. The existential dread of whether markets are in "bubble" territory lingered, prompting reflections on timeless wisdom like remembering "trees don't grow to the sky" and Howard Marks' evergreen advice that "overpaying is the greatest investment risk". So, as tariffs continued their starring role and the economic picture got murkier, April reinforced the timeless truth that navigating financial markets requires less prediction and more prudence, patience, and a healthy dose of "I Don't Know".

What Timeless Lessons Did We Learn This Month:

• Accept "I Don't Know": Certainty is an illusion; uncertainty is the norm, and admitting it is often the most truthful approach. 

• Patience Over Panic: Focus on long-term goals and underlying business value. Discipline beats drama.

• Your Behavior is Your Biggest Risk: Be mindful of emotional biases like fear and greed, and remember overpaying is a major risk.

• Filter the Noise: Tune out predictions and commentary, and feed your mind with wisdom, not noise.

• Face Reality: Persevere through tough times, learn from mistakes, and face reality as it is.

Embrace uncertainty, maintain patience, and focus on timeless principles of investing over futile prediction and market noise.  Sounds reasonable enough.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Why didn’t electrical engineers forecast the Iberian electricity crisis? Looking forward to reading many op eds in the @FT  on how the study of electrical engineering is in a crisis. Researchers should go back to reading Maxwell’s Elementary Treatise on Electricity

XTOD: The jump in consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations over the last three months in the Conference Board survey is as swift as the rise seen over the course of many months in 2020-21

XTOD: The most socially accepted form of self-sabotage:  Overthinking.  It’s why you can’t make decisions, finish anything, or sleep without scrolling.

XTOD: My brilliant partner Antti Ilmanen’s latest on his lifelong obsession with expected returns. This one on how people actually form them (rational or not). Link below. https://t.co/QZFv1PRUDK

XTOD: Kobe Bryant on why not everyone is up for greatness. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gpn-FNfXIAA8o2x?format=png&name=900x900

https://x.com/R2Rsquared/status/1917186959480402001

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1917267816517972240

https://x.com/0xAbhiP/status/1917210910810124666

https://x.com/CliffordAsness/status/1917217161010888896

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