Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Nobody Knows (Yet Again) – Embracing History's Rhyme

 Welcome back, clear-headed thinkers! In our ongoing quest to navigate the unpredictable currents of financial markets, today we revisit a timeless mantra from Howard Marks: "Nobody Knows." His April 9, 2025 memo, "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)," echoes a theme he first explored during the tumultuous Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and reprised during the COVID-19 pandemic. This enduring lesson powerfully aligns with our blog’s emphasis on embracing uncertainty and learning from human nature's consistent patterns.

Marks' original "Nobody Knows" memo, published shortly after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, affirmed his "ignorance of the future as usual, but to an even greater degree given that all prior expectations had been upended". Faced with a market that felt like a "downward spiral without end," he concluded that investors had to "assume it would [be arrested], and thus that we should plow money into financial assets at their highly discounted prices". He reapplied this logic during the "COVID-19 pandemic (which he titled 'Nobody Knows II')".

His 2025 memo re-emphasizes this point, particularly in light of current "economic shenanigans" and the way "global trade norms have been tossed out the window". Marks argues that trying to "analyze the future" in such times is "about as useful as trying to find a rational take on LinkedIn these days – it's an oxymoron". He cautions against relying on "experts" whose predictions are often speculative rather than fact-based.

 We constantly highlight that "history never repeats itself. Man always does". Marks’ recognition that "there are themes that rhyme throughout history" reinforces our belief that "human nature is predictable" even if specific events are not. His admission that "nobody really knows what's going to happen" aligns perfectly with our "I don’t know" mentality.

The wisdom here is not to become paralyzed by uncertainty, but to understand its pervasive nature and act accordingly. Marks’ approach—assuming the world will, in fact, not end and investing with that long-term perspective—mirrors our blog’s advocacy for patience and the understanding that "The ability to stick around for a long time, without wiping out or being forced to give up, is what makes the biggest difference". Even when "chaos is always loud", "patience never trends on X", and "discipline wins over drama". Marks’ insights serve as a powerful reminder that "by focusing on timeless principles, cultivating self-awareness, and maintaining a long-term perspective, you can navigate the inherent uncertainties of life and markets with greater resilience and wisdom".