In an age drowning in data and relentless forecasts, the most valuable skill might just be the art of ignoring. As this blog often suggests, "the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on". This "Noise Bottleneck" means vast quantities of information can become "toxic," increasing the ratio of "spuriousness" to valuable "signal".
We're often told that some economic data point is "the secret to the future" or "the most important CPI print of your lifetime". But as the sources reveal, predicting economic variables like GDP growth, employment, inflation, and the 10Y Treasury Yield is essentially a coin flip. Mark Twain famously quipped, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so". Morgan Housel added, "if you’ve relied on data and logic alone to make sense of the economy, you’d have been confused for a hundred straight years". This constant deluge of information often leads to a "noise to signal ratio" that makes it harder, not easier, to understand what's truly going on. This is why we advocate for embracing uncertainty and developing a filter to tune out the overwhelming "noise".
This blog aims to be an intellectually humble source of timely, diverse perspectives that empowers you to become more informed and discerning. So, keep your popcorn stockpile high, focus on what truly matters, and remember: progress comes bit by bit.
Your behavior matters more than your forecast.
Stop trying to be spectacular. Start being consistent.
Clarity comes from subtraction, not addition. Remove the noise, the distractions, and the unnecessary. What truly matters will emerge.
The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.
Your time is your most valuable asset. Leverage it wisely by focusing on what truly matters
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