It’s Friday and Jobs Day in ‘merica. Will this be the day that we get confirmation that the feelings in soft data will translate into the hard data?
Consensus estimates seem to be for a headline number of somewhere in the +125K to +140K jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Will there be any impact of tariffs in manufacturing jobs numbers? Will there be any noticeable DOGE related job losses? I’m sure some economists will dig through all the data to give you an answer to those questions shortly after 8:30am this morning.
Speaking of hard data, jobless claims rose led by a surge in claims in NY, which has been explained by some economists as tied to spring break in the NY school system - okay, I guess.
Until then the Nasdaq hasn’t cared, it has found a way to reclaim its ‘Liberation Day’ level. Will that hold?
Anyway, Jobs Day might steal headlines, but Buffett’s cash pile might end up stealing the weekend.
No Two Things That Match - Like Current Earnings and Future Earnings Estimates?
Maybe not as Apple and Amazon were both lower after hours. It is possible those stock losses bleed into stocks today, especially if markets find reason for worry in the Jobs data. Speaking of those earnings, Apple saw strong iPhone demand and while they said that they don’t think it was driven by buyers looking to get in front of tariffs, the market didn’t seem to be buying it, sending the stock down in after-hours trading. The extra $900mm cost impact of tariffs that Apple sees next quarter probably doesn’t help either. Amazon also beat earnings expectations, but guided lighter than analysts would have liked and saw a little lighter AWS revenue than analysts forecasted. They’ve got their own well publicized tariff issues.
Nevertheless we enter today’s trading day with the S&P at 5,604, the 10Y Treasury at 4.22% and the 2Y at 3.71%. Where will things sit after jobs - we’ll find out soon enough.
But The Oracle Awaits You This Weekend
Saturday is the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, starting at 9am ET you can tune into CNBC to watch. The 94 year old, Oracle of Ohama, Warren Buffett, is scheduled to sit up on stage as usual and take questions - for 4 and a half hours. There is little doubt that there will be questions about Berkshire’s $300 billion cash hoard and the sale of 2/3rd of their Apple position and about the eventual post-Buffett Berkshire.
You can prepare yourself for the shareholder meeting by reviewing our post that covered Buffett’s most recent annual letter. You know the one where he called out CEO’s who aren’t accountable for their mistakes, who don’t talk about the bad with the good, reminding them “if you start fooling your shareholders, you will soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.”
On the Web version of this blog just type “Buffett” into the search and you’ll find yourself rewarded.
XTOD’s:
XTOD: If April jobs report tomorrow is weak, markets will freak. If it is strong, markets simply will already move on to May and June's jobs report. The reason why we think May and June jobs reports are going to be very weak is because three sectors basically drive all of seasonal job growth in those two months, and at least 2 of those 3 sectors (leisure and hospitality, and logistics) will undershoot. As @FreightAlley has already covered extensively, the logistics sector employment will be hit in May. So another way to look at this is, that the number of container ships departing China for US peaked on 4/16 and plunged 45% since...it takes 21 days to arrive at US...so this means that May's payroll period exactly falls in this period of import volume plunge. But above all, it's the leisure and hospitality sector that will be account for the weakness in May and June. Full explanation in our preview @TheTerminal : https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SVLLOQT1UM0W
XTOD: SM was released this morning, marking the first monthly data point since Liberation Day.
It beat expectations and is not giving indications that manufacturers "froze" or "hit a wall" post Liberation Day. - *US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 48.7; EST. 47.9
XTOD: The more control you have over your attention, the more control you have over your future. And it starts with having enough courage to protect your time. It's so easy to say yes. We want to be agreeable, helpful, liked. That's how time disappears and attention becomes fragmented: not in big chunks, but in a thousand small concessions. What you trade your attention for is what your life becomes.
XTOD: Our job today and tomorrow is the same as it’s always been—to be good, to be wise, to stand up for what’s right, to resist what is wrong and evil. Nothing changes that. Nothing exempts us from that. Nothing prevents us from doing that.
XTOD: Warren Buffett: "If you're lucky in life, make sure that a bunch of other people are lucky, too."
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1918040523249537501
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1917989573189079330
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1918056084574531662
https://x.com/RyanHoliday/status/1918018585852821911
https://x.com/kejca/status/1917987620937679341
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