FOMC Recap: March Madness Fed Edition Redux

March Madness, Fed Edition: Same Playbook, New-ish Opponents

Another March FOMC meeting. Another round of Powell & Co. holding rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. And another tip-off to March Madness likely stealing the headlines by tomorrow morning.

Sound familiar? It should. The Fed is sticking to its game plan—slow the runoff of Treasury holdings starting in April, stay patient, and hope the economy keeps playing along. But, as every coach knows, no matter how good the scouting report looks, the game rarely goes according to plan.

Last year, I asked what lessons the Fed could take from March Madness—impossible perfection, the need for constant adjustments, and the reality that the future is always uncertain. If you missed it, you can catch that post here. Spoiler alert: those lessons still hold.

Today, the Fed’s projections show slower growth, stickier inflation, and a higher-for-longer rate outlook. Call it a defensive adjustment against inflation, that “streaky shooter” Powell warned about. Meanwhile, tariffs are back on the floor, pressing inflation higher and crowding growth into the corner.

But as in the tournament, surprises happen. Powell admitted “unusually elevated” uncertainty. Translation? The Fed’s ready to call timeout and change defenses if needed.

Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. The Fed’s bracket isn’t perfect. Neither is yours. Survive. Adjust. Advance.