A couple more days like yesterday and we’ll get the obligatory CNBC “Markets In Turmoil” special. Stocks took a beating—thanks to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The S&P closed down ~1.5%, the Nasdaq ~2.6% and the Russell 2K took the worst with a move down ~2.8%.
Tariffs on Maple Syrup & Tequila? Time to Crowdfund This Blog
Setting aside the impact to equity markets, maple syrup, chips, salsa, guacamole, and tequila, these are basically the necessary ingredients that go into fueling the writing of this blog. With these tariffs, maple syrup and tequila are now luxury goods. If this blog disappears, check LinkedIn—I’ll be crowdfunding my supply chain. I’m going to have to start a GoFundMe page on LinkedIn to be able to sustain my writing..... Watch me get canceled on LinkedIn for not posting a motivational quote with my fundraiser—‘Tariffs took my tequila, but I rose above!’.
Memecoins to the Rescue? Asking for a Friend
Who am I kidding, whatever problem tariffs cause, I’m fairly confident that a strategic cryptocurrency reserve is of course the answer, right? Can we just mint a new made in America, TariffCoin, get Dave Portnoy to trade it and throw it in the reserve at an inflated price? Does that juice GDP? Asking for a friend.
ISM Data: The Stagflation Special
In data yesterday the ISM manufacturing printed lower than expected at 50.3, barely holding onto expansion, with falling new orders, falling employment and rising price components, a whiff of stagflation there, all attributed to, you guessed it, tariffs. Normally, I’d joke that we don’t make anything here anyway—but at this rate, even jokes about manufacturing might get hit with tariffs.
GDPNow: From Growth to Growth Scare
If you’re into data and use data to forecast GDP, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (which is just a mathematical model), the recent data hasn’t been inspiring. As such the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, is now -2.8%, which is pretty ugly considering it was over 2% a few weeks ago. “Growth scare” - If Q1 GDP drops near -3%, shouldn’t we be in full panic mode?
Gold’s Up, TIPs Are In: Stagflation Survival 101
Maybe hoarding gold is the right economic play after all, it was up 1.3% on the day. Somewhat more seriously TIPs tend to perform well in a stagflation environment as real rates fall and they outperform nominals in such a scenario.
The Fed Cares About Inflation… Kind Of
Inflation isn’t sitting this one out either. We heard from the Atlanta Fed head, Alberto Musalem at NABE, he’s out there worried about rising inflation expectations. “I perceive the risks to inflation as skewed to the upside and am watching near- and longer-term inflation expectations carefully.” At least someone at the Fed cares about inflation, but with the “growth scare” narrative taking hold, it will be interesting to see if markets pull forward pricing of a Fed rate cut from June into May.
Don’t look now but the 2Y yield is back under 4%, at 3.96% and the 10Y currently feels like it’s a long way from the 4.80% we saw earlier in the year, sitting at 4.16%.
On Deck: Fed Speak & a Prime-Time Address
On the day ahead we’ll hear from NY Fed Williams and we get some quasi State of the Union address in the evening.
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XTOD’s:
XTOD: Current situation: 1. The S&P 500 is falling like a global trade war has begun 2. Oil prices are falling like we are heading into a recession 3. Gold prices are rising like inflation is on the rise 4. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining 5. Crypto is falling like risk appetite has collapsed 6. Tech stocks are falling like DeepSeek is back Are you ready for the most volatile market in history?
XTOD: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve makes as much sense as Strategic Baseball Card Reserve.
XTOD: The US imported about 80% of the potash used to fertilise American farms from Canada, according to government data
XTOD: Bitcoin 2010: f-the govt. f-Wall Street. Independent money! Bitcoin 2025: f-yeah govt. f-yeah Wall Street. We want $100k! What really happened in between? This isn't monetary adoption, nor is price a sign of progress toward it. This is an admission it's all about price regardless of everything else. So sad. So much potential wasted.
XTOD: Warren Buffett: "If you're going to do dumb things because a stock goes down, you shouldn't own a stock at all." "Some people are not emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks — but more of them would be if [they understood that] you're really buying part of a business."
XTOD: “Not life, but a good life, is to be chiefly valued.” — Socrates
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1896659975914553745
https://x.com/HannoLustig/status/1896592210797457432
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1896703434340110525
https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1896605175990686142
https://x.com/kejca/status/1896218837777101279
https://x.com/Mythos_Man/status/1896711216497881089
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