I realized I included the editor of The Atlantic in my Signal group chat that discusses ideas for this blog—no wonder The Atlantic steals my best ideas.
I’ve also been recording Tik-Toks of my morning routine for years and I still can’t get anyone to buy my bottled water.
Why is winning in 2025 so hard?
Tariff Apocalypse? More Like a Selective Spanking
Trump’s so-called Liberation Day (4/2) is turning out to be less of a tariff apocalypse and more of a selective spanking—so your 401(k) survived… for now. Markets celebrated by rallying hard. Even Tesla got a break from the hate parade, jumping >10%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.7% at 5,767, with other major indexes in the green. The S&P PMI’s added to the optimism, with services crushing expectations (54.3 vs. 51.0 est.) and accompanying strong internals.
Investors liked stocks so much they even dumped bonds—pushing the 10Y yield up 8 bps to 4.33% and the 2Y back over 4%, landing at 4.04%.
Tariffs: Misunderstood, But Still Happening
Trump didn’t suddenly go soft on tariffs. Just ask Venezuela’s Maduro—Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country buying gas from Venezuela to pressure Maduro into stopping migrant shipments to the U.S. And that’s not all—he’s also eyeing billion-dollar levies on Chinese-built ships docking in America.
But hey, maybe tariffs are bringing back manufacturing. Hyundai just announced a $5.9B investment in a steel plant in Louisiana.
Inflation? See You in 2027
Forget about 2025 rate cuts, maybe even 2026. Atlanta Fed President Bostic made it clear—the Fed’s 2% inflation target isn’t happening anytime soon. His latest forecast? One rate cut this year… maybe.
What’s Next?
Between now and Liberation Day, expect more twists and turns. Today brings consumer confidence, housing data, a 2Y note auction, and—of course—more Fedspeak.
Say what you want about U.S. markets, but at least we’re not Turkey.
XTODs
XTOD: How to be successful: • Wake up at 4am • Drink Saratoga Spring water • Rub bananas on your face • Inherit $10 million
XTOD: "The name of the company is Saratoga water. It is a cutting edge high-tech bottled water company out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of morning routines"
XTOD: So we buy 23andMe out of Chapter 11, then we sell $0.99/mo subscriptions to NOT release your genetic data publicly... $ME
XTOD: Miran telling you exactly what Bessent telling you Going to be bumpy and painful transition from Government to Private Investment And it's not just the government spending, it's all the downstream, non-government jobs that feed off it Chose not to believe them at your own risk
XTOD: fading this little alt rally macro outlook is still cooked, crypto market structure is still broken may the odds be ever in your favor
XTOD: Is there a some kind of special term for an investment strategy that is only capable of paying out current investors' returns by raising money from new investors? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gmz-1yUXAAAwtGf?format=png&name=900x900
XTOD: When we lack real problems, we create imaginary ones; when we lack meaningful work, we perfect the unimportant.
https://x.com/dougboneparth/status/1904162701841981527
https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1904225865413628306
https://x.com/CramerTracker/status/1903950293722861713
https://x.com/BarbarianCap/status/1904146639419269139
https://x.com/Melt_Dem/status/1904208222530978246
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1904169655289118971
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