At one point I thought parts of the country were going to lose electricity and I didn’t even know we got electricity from Canada. Then I realized we were negotiating something..about electricity, or aluminium, or steel? Honestly, I have no idea what's going on. But I’m willing to admit it. Most people aren’t.
While we were all distracted by the lights flickering, I almost forgot—
JOLTS Data dropped. That data showed that job openings rose by 232K, to 7.74mm in January. Interestingly the federal government hiring rate increased by a 1/10th in that period.
Speaking of data..Remember that whiff…
Will the inflation report today stink? Setting aside the fact that the YoY rate will continue to have a core CPI rate with a 3 handle (remember the target is 2%), everyone’s watching internals. Car prices, car insurance (wildfires and maybe a hint of the “t” word), and housing—always housing
As important as CPI reports tend to be, I don’t know if the data will matter that much as markets are focused on the impact of potential trade wars on both inflation and growth going forward.
Speaking of wars…maybe not everything stinks:
Reports are that Ukraine has agreed to terms outlined by the U.S. for a 30-day ceasefire. Now it’s up to Russia. Sounds like minerals are on the table. That should be a positive development.
The Early 2000’s Called… And They Want Their Narratives Back
Equities did rebound off the lows of the day,which saw the S&P touch a correction (down 10%) on that news… But the S&P still closed down 0.7% at 5,572.
But let’s zoom out:
Remember a world of massive uncertainty? Post-9/11. Dot-com bubble burst. Enron. India-Pakistan military standoff (no one remembers this). AIDS fears. Geopolitics.
And the digital revolution accelerating under it all.
Despite all that, if you zoom out… things worked out.
But only if you…
Listened to the Advice of A Decade Earlier
“I know that there is pain, but you..Hold on for one more day…Don't you know, things can change…Things'll go your way…If you hold... on for one more day…Can you hold... on for one more day? Things'll go your way” - Wilson Phillips
“Sometimes everything is wrong…If you feel like letting go (hold on)...And everybody hurts sometimes…So hold on, hold on…Hold on, hold on, hold on” - REM
Or take it from actual investing legends
Take Charlie Munger for example - "It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait."
Or Peter Bernstein's advice that "The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination"
Or a different kind of investor who said "Often we tell ourselves, "Don't just sit there, do something!" But when we practice awareness, we discover something unusual. We discover that the opposite may be more helpful, "Don't just do something, sit there!" We must learn to stop from time to time in order to see clearly. At first, "stopping" may look like a kind of resistance to modern life, but it is not. It is not a reaction; it is a way of life. Humankind's survival depends on our ability to stop rushing." -Thich Nhat Hanh
Can We Stop And See Clearly?
Or Will Tomorrow’s Noise Suck Us Back In?
We’ve got CPI, a 10Y auction, and the Bank of Canada on deck.
Is there a signal in all of this? Or are we just reacting to noise?
XTOD’s
XTOD: Charlie Munger's 5 investment skills to develop: 1.) The ability to keep raw irrational emotions under control. 2.) Patience. 3.) Discipline. 4.) An ability to take losses and adversity without going crazy. 5.) The ability to not be driven crazy by extreme success.
XTOD: We have three currencies in life:
• Money
• Time
• Health
The cruel irony? They're rarely abundant simultaneously:
Young: Rich in time and health, poor in money.
Middle age: Rich in money and health, poor in time.
Old age: Rich in money and time, poor in health.
XTOD: The private equity names are now all down 30-40% from the highs (!!!) so I think it's time for another juicy thread on the threat to capitalism as we know it.Let's begin:....Much much more to post in this thread but Twitter is cutting me off. We're all screwed, if that isn't apparent from the stock market today. This is just a taste. Visit http://shortprivateequity.com for more.
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1899248654939980132
https://x.com/joyofcompoundin/status/1899353811740950824
https://x.com/dailydirtnap/status/1899208071328444480
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