Sorry, I thought we had until midnight last night to write down everything we worked on last week - that was the rule, right? I got this post written in time.
Spring training is in full effect. In baseball they have a statistic called WAR, Wins Above Replacement. Back on January 6, I started the year discussing where this blog adds value to you, the reader, check out that post here. To recap, this blog’s value-add is its ability to enhance your understanding of financial markets, risk management, and the human factors that influence investment outcomes. You can read about financial markets anywhere, but I believe it’s rare you can find a source that is intellectually humble, provides timely yet diverse perspectives on financial topics, presents content in a way that is accessible and enjoyable by using humor and satire, and of course provides thought-provoking ideas through a curated selection of “X Thoughts of The Day” (XTODs).
So the question is, why aren’t you sharing this blog with everyone you know? My ask is everyone who reads this to send a link to 5 people you know. In this “attention economy”, I would like to think this blog is worth the few minutes of time each daily post takes to read. I can’t think of anywhere else where someone can find a daily financial blog that contains some humor and satire, incorporates pop-culture references, embraces an “I don’t know” mentality that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in financial markets, all while providing an accessible perspective on economics, investing, and the human condition. You can certainly find plenty of opinions and “takes” on X, but a consistently curated XTOD section that fosters humor, sparks reflection and fosters critical thinking, good luck finding that elsewhere.
If you agree with the above, share the blog! Use the desktop search feature and find something you enjoyed and send it to your friends and coworkers.
I’m clearly biased, but surely you trust AI. ChatGPT’s favorite recent blog post was from February 6, 2025. Read the first sentence of that post and it seems obvious why ChatGPT chose it as a recent favorite. ChatGPT describes the blog’s value as follows: “By combining sharp humor with insightful observations, "Where Is Edward Quince?" offers a refreshing perspective on economic discourse, making intricate subjects more relatable and engaging for its audience”. “The blog’s irreverent yet insightful tone is its biggest asset.” Is it appropriate to quote AI? Can AI actually provide a testimonial? Oh well, I did it anyway.
Away from self gloat and across the pond, if you missed the weekend election in Germany, you should know that voters leaned right in backing largely establishment parties and the coalition government will be led by Friedrich Merz. There is a belief that the election result will lead to stability and more fiscal spending, especially on defense. We’ll see what happens once the coalition government actually comes to fruition. Trump clearly seems to want to see a larger role in their own security.
In markets, Microsoft data center spend, or purported lack thereof, is all the rage following a TD Cowen report that they were canceling leases. Tariffs remain front and center with Trump indicating that he’s following through with tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting next week…we’ll see. The S&P closed below 6K, at 5,983.25. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday hold the potential to weigh heavily on sentiment from here. In bonds, the 2Y auction cleared around 4.17% with a real strong foreign bid (indirect bidders). The 2Y treasury yield closed at 4.19% and the 10Y at 4.41%.
Following last week’s data, the narrative has shifted somewhat to questioning the strength of the economy and specifically the health of the consumer. Nevertheless, Jamie Dimon kept inflation on the radar, laying out a list of inflationary forces in the near term, including what he called “wasting money on the green economy.”
On the docket for the day are Home prices, Fedspeak, and the 5Y note auction.
XTOD: Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, the battlefield remains uncertain—but geopolitics is shifting fast. A reality check on where we stand: very long post 💡
1️⃣ This war isn’t just about Ukraine.
Russia isn’t fighting just to expand its borders—it’s dismantling the European security order and securing its pole position in the U.S.-China great power rivalry amid Cold War 2 between America and the #DragonBear.
Yet Europe still refuses to fight back strategically.
2️⃣ Russia’s war on Europe isn’t just military—it’s non-conventional too.
🔹 Weaponized energy, food & fertilizers
🔹 Migration flows as a destabilization tool
🔹 Cyberattacks & sabotage ops inside EU/NATO
🔹 Nuclear blackmail
Meanwhile, Moscow is not isolated—it’s adapting.
3️⃣ Europe’s grand promises vs. reality:
❌ Germany’s “Zeitenwende” was all talk—no real defense shift so far (new Chancellor Merz might bring out the long-awaited shift)
❌ Europe imposed the greatest sanctions packages (16)—then bypass them via Russia's proxies.
❌ €150B in aid—yet Europe failed to create a wartime economy to mass-produce weapons and consistently support Ukraine.
Russia? It just secured more reliable suppliers via North Korea, Iran & China.
4️⃣ The #DragonBear Alliance is real.
For 15 years, the West downplayed Russia-China ties as a "marriage of convenience", "junior partner" and "impossible".
🚨 Wrong. China keeps Russia’s economy alive by:
🔹 Buying Russian oil & gas at scale
🔹 Supplying microchips & industrial tech
🔹 Offering financial escape routes from sanctions
🔹 Strengthening BRICS+, SCO and other organisations with Russia's participation
Russia is NOT China’s junior partner—it’s Beijing’s Eurasian and Arcic power lever as well as commodities safeline amid Cold War 2 with the U.S.
5️⃣ The Global South is NOT on the West’s side.
Many Western leaders assumed the world would isolate Russia. That never happened.
Instead, Russia deepened ties across Asia, Africa & Latin America.
🔹 India & UAE buy Russian oil
🔹 Brazil, South Africa & Turkey refuse sanctions
🔹 Africa sees Russia as an anti-colonial counterweight to the West
This war is redefining global power alignments.
6️⃣ The West is losing the long game amid Bifurcation of the Global System due to long-term structural and systemic crisis on the old continent.
🔹 Ukraine still lacks weapons systems and ammunistion promised by the West
🔹 European defense industries are too slow and fractured
🔹 Russia is outproducing NATO in artillery shells & drones
Putin is betting the West will lose interest before Russia runs out of men & munitions.
7️⃣ What happens next? Three scenarios:
💥 Scenario 1: Ukraine wins
🔹 Requires a U.S. shift back to full military, diplomatic and financial aid; the EU switches to partial war economy
🔹 China stops tech transfers and dual-use to Russia
🔹 Global South cuts strategic exports to Moscow
🔮 Likelihood: Low (U.S. disengagement under Trump 2.0 + EU hesitation)
⏳ Scenario 2: The War Drags On (War of Attrition until now)
🔹 Russia sustains war with Chinese & Iranian aid
🔹 Western aid to Ukraine slows but doesn’t stop
🔹 Global South expands sanctions evasion & energy trade
🔮 Likelihood: High (We’re already here)
🤝 Scenario 3: The Frozen War (Increasingly Likely)
🔹 U.S. & Russia negotiate a ceasefire, restore strategic dialogue
🔹 Ukraine is forced into territorial concessions
🔹 China brokers the deal to stabilize global markets
🔹 Global South pushes for diplomatic resolution due to food and energy inflation
🔮 Likelihood: Rising fast (Trump’s 2025 policy shift)
8️⃣ Final Reality Check:
The EU and its members are becoming the geopolitical backyard of global affairs if they don't get their act together.
🔹 A new Iron Curtain is emerging along NATO’s Eastern flank amid Cold War 2 between America and the DragonBear
🔹 U.S. focus is shifting to China & the Indo-Pacific where the greatest geopolitical tensions will occur in 2025.
🔹 The EU members are divided—some want to fight, others want peace at any cost. The Bifurcation of the Global System is now affecting the old continent - as above, so below.
Russia is playing the long game. Is the West?
XTOD: Apollo Investments worried about downside risks to economy, notes that every 1 federal employee may actually be 3 jobs because of 2 contractors.
XTOD: Fella lost all his money chasing meme coins and killed himself while recording it live. And they made a meme token in his honor and rugged more people. Crypto is easily the most toxic space right now. Crypto easily a net negative for our society, I'm dying on this hill.
XTOD: My favorite ideas from my conversation with @GuptaRK22
“In a decade, every person will be more capable than any person is today.”
“The best founders today don’t just embrace AI, they re-underwrite their entire business with it.”
“The next billion-dollar companies will be built by people who understand customer problems deeply and understand what AI can do.”
“The more digital-only your product is, the faster AI will create magic—and if you don’t, someone else will.”
“This moment is about ambition—what race are you in, and how many cars can you pass in front of you?”
“For high-agency, ambitious people, AI is a chance to enter a race you never thought possible—and win it.”
“Customers are divinely discontented—either you give them magic, or someone else will.”
“If you had a genius join your company tomorrow, how much would you change to make the most of them? AI is that genius.”
“If you just knew the person was brilliant and they would work 24 hours a day for you, the first time they messed up, you wouldn’t say, ‘Oh, they suck’—you’d say, ‘I need to do something differently to get the most out of them.’”
“What percentage of time does the senior leadership team think about how to deliver value to the customer in the best, fastest, and cheapest way? The lower that percentage is, the bigger the opportunity.”
“Anything that reduces your agility is a massive problem.”
“If you’re a public company CEO and you feel held back by what you said last year, you’re in trouble.”
“If your leadership team isn’t spending most of their time thinking about customers, you have a massive hidden cost dragging you down.”
“Optimists will own the future—pessimists will watch it happen.”
XTOD: “The road to valor is built by adversity.” — Ovid
https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1894105221804298645
https://x.com/SullyCNBC/status/1893299923283546339
https://x.com/Investor_NICK_/status/1893431938188198191
https://x.com/patrick_oshag/status/1894038623575798123
https://x.com/Mythos_Man/status/1893865281870819346
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