Below is my quote for day number 2 of quotes from a certain book on investing. If you can guess the book from the quote (or yesterday’s quote) post your guess in the comments below:
“manipulation" was first used in connection with what really are no more than common merchandising process applied to the sale in bulk of securities…” and as a related, bonus quote for the day: “manipulation is the art of advertising through the medium of the tape.”
Not necessarily to imply that there is manipulation in today’s markets, but it’s interesting to think about how both market manipulation and advertising aim to influence public perception and drive behavior to achieve a desired outcome. Think about that when you see trading and activity and price movements that “advertise” a bull market in a given investment. That said I think there are some clear ethical differences in most marketing when compared to decietful market manipulation.
The first full day of Trump 2.0 saw stocks rise, led by small caps and bond yields fall. Major news outlets all expressed some optimism around the fact that no immediate tariffs were levied despite “tariff” being Trump’s fourth favorite word in the English language.
Reports that Trump is planning to announce billions of dollars in AI infrastructure programs through a OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle joint venture called "Stargate". Whether or not this $500 billion of “new” investment is indeed “new” is TBD as of the time of this writing. In earnings news, it generally seems good (and really good if you’re Netflix) at least in terms of headlines, though firms express caution about FX impact on earnings going forward.
The S&P 500 is up to 6,049, the 2Y is 4.28%, the 10Y is 4.57% and the DXY remains around 108.
There’s a 20Y Treasury Auction today, but otherwise earnings season and Trump policy are expected to be the major headline grabbers on the day ahead.
XTOD: "But just eyeballing the chart below reminds us that at the end of the 1980s the Japanese equity market accounted for close to 50% of the world index – a lasting memory for me as I had just joined Kleinwort Benson investment bank in 1988. The Japanese exceptionalism narrative was also extremely compelling, but bubble equity valuations were soon burst by a sharp rise in bond yields. I keep a copy of my 1989 research note handy in which I stressed that a sky-high Japanese bond/equity earnings yield ratio signalled that the Nikkei bubble was about to pop. Back then investors were angry that I even dared suggest such a thing could happen." - @albertedwards99
XTOD: Druckenmiller: "I've been doing this for 49 years, and we're probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite. We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground. And I'd say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. So we're a believer in animal spirits"
XTOD: “You can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don't take shortcuts. It might take longer but it's more rewarding.”
XTOD: It only takes five minutes to break the cycle. Five minutes of exercise and you are back on the path. Five minutes of writing and the manuscript is moving forward again. Five minutes of conversation and the relationship is restored. It doesn't take much to feel good again.
XTOD: Essentialism is not about how to get more things done; it’s about how to get the right things done. It doesn’t mean just doing less for the sake of less either. It is about making the wisest possible investment of your time and energy in order to operate at our highest point of contribution by doing only what is essential.
https://x.com/LanceRoberts/status/1881679562037207221
https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1881453536845656353
https://x.com/FoundersPodcast/status/1881486662708220050
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1881708332496425146
https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1881748774097490183
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