PCE inflation day is here.
As everyone still processes and debates the last FOMC decision and Blackstone's latest holiday video, it feels like yesterday's data got a little lost in the shuffle, so a quick recap:
- BOJ held their policy rate at 0.25% with limited information regarding the shunto (spring wage increases), the Yen and tariffs as reasons to hold off hiking now.
- BoE held at 4.75% in a 6-3 vote (3 in favor of cuts) as they struggling with stubborn inflation, strong wages, but weakening employment picture. They're still likely to gradually cut in 2025.
- In U.S. data, the third read of 3Q GDP was super solid, jobless claims showed you still can't get fired and homes are super expensive but still selling.
Bitcoin fell back below 100k, the Dow snapped it's 10-day losing streak while the other indexes were down slightly. Value stocks continue to be unloved as do large pockets of the international market....and Fartcoin continues to be loved, of course....it's still got a ways to go to match the 2024 returns of CHILLGUY token.
The potential government shutdown is the other major financial news item with Elon inserting himself into the continuing resolution discussion.
The yield curve steepened with the 10Y rising to 4.57% and the 2Y falling to 4.33%, perhaps overlooked is some/most of the recent runup in yields is actually driven by "real" rates.
On the day ahead PCE and leave for the remainder of the year and of course, try not to get bird flu.
XTOD: It’s been a yeehaw-esome year here at #Blackstone... but don’t take our word for it. Listen to our leaders sing about it in the 2024 $BX holiday video. Watch the full story on YouTube: https://bit.ly/4gL0HrT
XTOD: NEW: Hailey Welch’s “Hawk Tuah” crypto project sued after the group was accused of “rug pulling” investors when the token tanked 95%. Investors say the lawsuit “arises from the unlawful promotion and sale of the Hawk Tuah cryptocurrency memecoin…” Named in the lawsuit are the ‘Tuah The Moon Foundation,’ OverHere Ltd and executive, Clinton So, along with the meme coin's promoter, Alex Larson Schultz, according to Newsweek. "Many of the investors were first-time cryptocurrency participants drawn to the project through Welch's involvement,” the lawsuit says.
“The rapid decline in the Token's value caused substantial damages to investors who relied on Welch's participation and the project's stated road map.”
XTOD: In 20 years of managing money I have never seen more dismal sentiment for:
1. International stocks
2. Value stocks
3. Valuations in general
Sentiment is never a timing indicator but it feels like the dam has finally broken and investors are all but giving up on this stuff
XTOD: It's accepted as received wisdom that the growth of private credit is due to higher bank capital requirements. And that's partly true, but why do banks hate capital requirements? Because equity is scarce/expensive. That will be a binding constraint on private credit too.
XTOD: The NIL AGENTS are going to come out of the woodworks ! $HOW ME THE MONEY ! That is high level college athletics! Better produce or you’ll be kicked to the curb !
XTOD: “Love your wife more than you love your own life. Never be at odds, but be true. Prefer her company at home. Esteem & admire her publicly, advise her patiently. Pray together; if your marriage is like this, your perfection will rival the holiest of monks.” —Saint John Chrysostom
https://x.com/blackstone/status/1869733370327908603
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1869751498068066608
https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1869819737594830945
https://x.com/StevenKelly49/status/1869819956491366796
https://x.com/CoachBeede/status/1869564658732191779
https://x.com/Ancient_Masc/status/1869168424984739868
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