Inflation data begins with CPI today, with estimates for YoY core inflation at 3.3% and headline ticking up to 2.7%. Stocks have been little changed to down ahead of CPI. Small business seems opitimistic adding to post-election data sets that show solid expectations for 2025. The 3Y note auction tailed slightly with weak indirects. Heading into CPI, the 2Y is 4.16%, the 10Y is 4.22%.
In Asia, Chinese record low yields are in place despite Monday’s stimulus announcement. The stimulus headlines kind of remind me of Evergrande headlines that were seemingly recycled for 2 years (more?) as the real estate market collapsed. Also in APAC, the RBA held rates, though indicated a case for cutting rates in February, of course dependent upon the data.
You don’t have bird flu yet, so that’s good.
CPI is the highlight and the 10Y auction is also on the docket. If you're into Canada we get a BoC decision too.
XTOD: A smaller share of Americans moved in 2023 than ... ever. New from @uscensusbureau
at https://census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2023.html
XTOD: "SpaceX Share Sale Values Company at About $350 Billion Tender offer includes $1.25 billion of stock at $185 a share. " Bloomberg Employee liquidity FTW!
XTOD: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I AM CONCERNED ABOUT FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, DEFICITS NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN......a parting gift? You can't make this **** up!
XTOD: Bitcoin has totally lost its way. The purpose of Bitcoin "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" as Satoshi Nakamoto designed it was for a stateless, decentralized, permissionless payment mechanism that was capable of scaling to VISA-level transactions that were cheap enough to support both sub-cent micro-payments as well as large payments. This is the true value proposition as widespread adoption of payments through this system would literally free people from both the banking system and some degree of government coercion while it's fixed scarcity would also limit the #inflationary monetary malfeasance common with central banks. Nowhere in the Bitcoin whitepaper is it mentioned that Bitcoin was intended to be HODLed by a very few in order to drive the price up so that then, financial con-artists like @saylor could bamboozal the world through reckless financial engineering. Nowhere in the whitepaper was it mentioned that it would be really great for Bitcoin to "go to the moon" after retail investors used @BlackRock ETFs to access only the price of Bitcoin without any possibility of custody of their own Satts. Nowhere in the whitepaper is it mentioned that there was no real way for it to scale (because of artificial block size limits) and therefore in order for Bitcoin to actually empower transactions for all, we would need some diminutive technology ignorant anarcho-gobblin like @jackmallers to come along and create a new layer that somehow, magically would make good on the promise of global cheap transactions at scale. All we are seeing today is a massive speculative orgy with almost no real adoption and certainly no hope for the true vision of Satoshi Nakamoto.
XTOD: Stop trying to be spectacular. Start being consistent. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GecX55RXUAARhIQ?format=png&name=900x900
https://x.com/JedKolko/status/1866521392445006118
https://x.com/trengriffin/status/1866634515806113798
https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1866583721144439195
https://x.com/soldatthetop/status/1866244467881046288
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1866486874329481546
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