As of the time of this writing, the election outcome was unkown.
Markets were pretty happy during the election trading day. Stocks indexes rose almost 1%, there was some interesting trading in DJT stock, but hard to know what the drivers were. The 10Y ended the day at ~4.30% falling in the course of the morning and holding that changes through the day. the 2Y remained around 4.20%.
ISM non-mfg pmi comes in at 56 v. 53.7 est. the employment component and prices component were both firm and above expectations. The 10y UST auction was pretty good, printing slightly through where WI was trading and a solid bid to cover.
Boeing strike is over. West coast Canadian port strikes begins.
Limited data, so it's probably just a lot of hearing from pundits about policies.
XTOD: We need Blackstone to take America private, right-size our cost structure, clean up the capital structure, and get us ready for an IPO before the next election
XTOD: Millennials are aging faster as they spend >8 hours/day sitting. 30 min of daily intense exercise can counteract, making your body 5-10 years younger. A study published today showed that US millennials (28-49 years) spent >8 hours a day sitting which leads to faster aging indicated in markers including higher body-weight and increased fat in the blood at a younger age. Fortunately, Intense exercise mitigates this effect of longer sitting hours, as millennials working out vigorously for 30 minutes a day demonstrate a BMI (Body Weight relative to height) and blood fat levels (TG/HDL ratio) equivalent to that of 10 year and 5 year younger peers that do not exercise.
XTOD: "Fannie Mae...wrote that it anticipates decreases in the multifamily property values it projected, reflecting 'uncertainty relating to property values and the ongoing investigation of multifamily lending transactions with suspected fraud.'"
XTOD: Election "break even" analysis...
UST 10yr rate: 17bps; 1.33 points
$MOVE now @ 136
SPX: 1.8% or 102 points
$VIX now @ 20.3
Gold: 1.6% or $44
Let's hope it's a clear victory....either way
XTOD: When you hear the call to 'do more' and 'be more,' do you ever pause to ask: At what cost to my soul? Have you weighed what you are trading for the achievements you pursue?
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1853909023562621300
https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1853933339671220501
https://x.com/m3_melody/status/1853546235598189047
https://x.com/ConvexityMaven/status/1853848978456236482
https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1853888438891593881
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