Some of the Trump trade rally took a breather yesterday as yields rose after returning from the day off. It was the first down day for equity indexes since the election. The dollar continued to rally, nearing a 2 year high with tariffs and rising yields cited as the catalyst for the move. The 2Y yield rose to 4.35% and the 10Y to 4.43%.
We learned yesterday that former NBA great Scottie Pippen is a psychic, having predicted back on September 3 via a dream in which Satoshi appeared to him, that Bitcoin would cross $84K on November 5th. Of course the move in Bitcoin of late has led to a treasure trove of comments and memes of late. I've seen more than a few images of copies of The Intelligent Investor getting thrown in the trash and of investment bank analyst working 90 hours only to be surpased by crypto degens, etc. We'll see how Pippen's latest comments age: "Bitcoin in 2024 is giving me flashbacks to the Bulls in ’91… a dynasty just starting. Get ready for what’s next."
In Fedspeak we had Barkin described the economy as "in a good place" buoyed by a discerning consumer and productive labor force. He believes policy is restrictive and the Fed is well positioned to respond to any challenge that may come along. Gov. Waller's speech and Q&A was focused on fintech and didn't expressly touch on anything related to monetary policy.
In other Fed tangent news, the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed very slight softening in inflation expectations, with the year ahead inflation expectation falling to 2.9%, the first time below 3% since late 2020 I believe. Labor market conditions continued to be faily well regarded in the survey.
Much focus also remains on Trump appointees with the pick for Treasury Secretary expected soon, an appointment where hedge fund billionaire, John Paulson, has pulled his name from consideration. Scott Bessent, an investor involved in George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller's famed GBP short trade that "broke the BoE" back in 1992 is currently considered the most likely appointee, but we'll see.
CPI is the highlight of the day ahead, consensus expectations are for a YoY increase of 3.3% on the core inflation component and 2.6% YoY increase in headline.
XTOD: “Hey, that Bitcoin sure is climbing fast! Me? No I can’t buy into it, I have all my money parked in low cost index funds and a high yield savings account earning 4.20% APY”
XTOD: imagine putting in 16 hour days doing research only to underperform scottie pippen trading off visions that came to him in a dream
XTOD: MSTR borrows money and issues shares to buy more #Bitcoin. As a result, the price of Bitcoin goes up, which causes the price of $MSTR to increase, allowing it to borrow more money and sell more shares to buy even more Bitcoin. Wash, rinse, repeat—what could possibly go wrong?
XTOD: Accumulating Concerns.... Bottom Line So we have an overbought on the S&P Oscillator (near 3.5%), a Woodstock-like drug festival in Tesla ($TSLA) and Nvidia ($NVDA) 0DTE call options, sky-high price-earnings multiples, near universal investor bullishness, evidence that the post-election breadth thrust might be over (look at today's 2-1 negative breadth), ($RSP) (equal weighted S&P) -0.86% and ($IWM) (Russell Index) -1.67%)... and now bond yields starting to break out to the upside. Not a word of these concerns on the "shows." What, me worry?
XTOD: The things that matter most never come with a price tag. If lost, no amount of money in the world can restore them.
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1856152443131761083
https://x.com/netcapgirl/status/1856142353108476283
https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1856316216085778545
https://x.com/DougKass/status/1856394461514813950
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1856117989562532144
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