Jobs Day in 'merica. Equity markets largely on hold, the movers have been the continued rise in oil related to middle-east tensions, a continued rise in yields and a stronger dollar which is benefitting from dovishness out of other central banks. The 10Y is up to 3.84% and the 2Y at 3.71%.
Yesterday's jobless claims were largely in line with expectations and did not appear to be impacted by Helene which hit at the end of the measurement period. The ISM services data looked strong and also showed an increase in the prices paid component, for whatever that's worth. Factory orders looked relatively weak, but in my mind it's a generally noisy set of data.
It looks like there may be a pause in the port strike until January 15, and that a tentative deal may be in hand.
On the day ahead Jobs is the highlight, estimates are generally around +150K on the headline, though the whisper number seems lower. Of course markets will look to see if the unemployment rate creeps up from 4.2% and average hourly earnings looks with 0.3% MoM as the estimate. In geopolitics the question of how Israel will respond and will it involve targeting oil assets or nuclear assets or something different entirely. Time will tell.
XTOD: A great example of what Palantir does in an easy to understand way:In 2016, Airbus showed how Palantir Foundry transformed their business by connecting complex systems of data to make quick & accurate decisions. Imagine using this in ’24 with AIP to deploy LLMs within it https://x.com/i/status/1841494176799588765
XTOD: A reasonable counterfactual for 2020 is a severe financial crisis like we experienced in 2008. Yes, different origin stories for 2020 and 2008, but shutting down an entire economy in 2020 should have caused a severe financial crisis. The fact that it did not happen is amazing.
XTOD: In my 55 years as a global macro investor, I have seen, traded through, and studied many big debt crises (48 are covered in my book, “Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises.”) It is that perspective that leads me to believe that China is at a fork in the road and can either: deal with its debt by beautiful engineering or deal with its debt crisis in a way that drags on. To me, this one in China looks like “another one of those” that can and should be treated in big, classic ways— but more is required. I go over this in my latest article. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions. https://linkedin.com/pulse/beautiful-deleveraging-chinese-characteristics-ray-dalio-d7aue/?trackingId=gMQCFX85TbuJ4Ok1RZ8aUg%3D%3D
XTOD: It sounds obvious that reading is important in investing (or life). But in today's information environment, reading is practiced less and less. If practiced at all, the reading is in bite-size snacks, with not enough nutrition in it to develop key investment skills like visualization, recall and self-awareness.
https://x.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1841845842329661640
https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1841600115636597108
https://x.com/alixpasquet/status/1841815015814242559
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