Shares of DJT Media stock keep rising, which some see as "prediction" for an election victory. Bitcoin crosses $70K for first time since June. Gold continued to be strong and the Nasdaq hits new records.
After the close Alphabet beat with strong cloud revenue and talked up some AI efficiencies, like AI writing a quarter of their code.
The 10Y hit its highest yield since July, but yields fell back after the 7Y auction was solid, with the 2Y at 4.11% and the 10Y at 4.26%.
In data, job openings declined to pre-pandemic levels, while hires, quits and layoffs were little changed. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence was very good, hitting the best level of the year with consumers feeling very well about their jobs while remaining concerned about inflation Perhaps that would seem to indicate the Fed should be focusing on inflation moreso than employment.
There has been plenty of talk about the distortions in the upcomding payroll report, out this Friday, as the impact of hurricanes and strikes is expected to make for a murky picture. With focus already seemingly shifting to jobs, we have 3Q GDP data and the Treasury Refunding Announcement out today. Yesterday's ATL Fed GDPNow fell back under 3 at 2.8% as we head into today's data. Across the pond the UK budget will also be a subject of some focus, though it's not likely to be anything like the 2022 Liz Truss mini-budget debacle.
XTOD: Gold just hit a new all-time high. $2,785 per ounce. Who's buying? Central banks, BRICS, and billionaires. Who's not buying? Everyday Americans ... yet.
XTOD: The obvious risk here is that the perception of certainty of a Trump win is running very high, the corollary is that if that win does not materialize then the risk of a chaotic outcome - very underpriced right now - would become prevalent
XTOD: Bond traders "believe the range of outcomes for this general election is much wider than all other elections for which we have records (1988)...The market is pricing an 18bps rate movement on the days immediately after the election:" Harley Bassman https://convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Convexity-Maven-2024-Election-Special.pdf
XTOD: “The size factor (small cap premium) isn’t dead. It’l just lives in private equity now (bc cos don’t IPO till after they’re huge)” - Pankaj Patel on quant panel at the Astoria Macro conf w
@alphaarchitect @choffstein @cullenroche & Ben Lavine
XTOD: Of all the hot spots across global finance that were upended by the pandemic, few remain as fragile as the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. And within this market, the pain is most acute in a new breed of bonds, known as SASBs, that buildings like 1407 Broadway represent. A Bloomberg analysis of almost every SASB tied to a US office property, more than 150 in all, revealed that creditors across numerous deals are on track to get only a portion of their original investment back. In multiple cases, the losses will likely reach all the way up to buyers of the AAA portions of the debt.
This is in large part because unlike conventional CMBS, which bundle together hundreds of property loans, SASBs are typically backed by just one mortgage tied to one building….. “The AAA rating is designed to be a debt security that would typically default less than once every 5,000 years,” said John Griffin, a chaired professor of finance at the University of Texas in Austin. “Yet, here we are not far from the financial crisis observing defaults,” he said, adding that “it does not appear that the major issues in structured finance have been fixed.” …
https://t.co/W6Zm5jr9wB
XTOD: When you are washing the dishes, washing the dishes must be the most important thing in your life... Live the actual moment. Only this actual moment is life. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7-pdxXEAACDBP?format=jpg&name=small ~ Thich Nhat Hanh
https://x.com/JamesGRickards/status/1851334277356474747
https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1851256398018945503
https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1851186202725974420
https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1851293647628542345
https://x.com/doggedtenacity/status/1851009423084519608
https://x.com/rmnth/status/1850696488554217528
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