Stocks fell from an all time high as chips and AI didn't win the day given ASML earnings. Oil continued to fall on a lessening of concern around Israel's presumed attack agains Iran and increasing concern over China's economy which will dampen demand. Falling oil prices helped Canadian inflation fall to 1.6% on a headline basis, I guess that's good, even though rent inflation runs at like 8% up there. In geopolitics Trump called "tariffs" "the most beautiful word in the dictionary" and N. Korea is destroying roads between the themselves and S.Korea.
The NY Fed Mfg Index posted it's worst level since May driven by lower new orders, but it nonetheless posted solid employment component and rising prices paid.
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed an increase in consumers 3Y and 5Y inflation expectations. The survey also showed no major concerns on the unemployment or spending sides.
We hear all the time from the Fed about the importance of anchored inflation expectations, nothing in this survey shows any unanchoring, but equally the readings continue to remain above target. Some economist believe that higher inflation expectations can be self fulfilling as people demand higher pay and returns to shield themselves from inflation.
It's a light data day ahead before a full Thursday.
XTOD: How to read recent US-Israel leaks re: oil attacks
1) US-Israel have a deal for limited military strikes
2) Netanyahu says one thing -- but may do another
3) Netanyahu never intended to bomb nuclear / oil sites, but used the threat to get other US concessions
XTOD: Trump: "I've been a very successful businessman. ... I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I should have the right to put in comments as to whether interest rates should go up or down."
XTOD: Feel bad for any CRE investor/family that 1031 exchanged into one of these Walgreens thinking they were going to have a safe/secure asset for decades... not many could have predicted this a decade ago
XTOD: As bull markets are built up, the large and quick profits shown by common stocks as a whole are sufficient to dull the public’s critical faculty, just as they sharpen its acquisitive instinct.
--Benjamin Graham
XTOD: “A good bet in economics: the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate.” —
@morganhousel
XTOD: The highest return on investment is in the things you don’t do.
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1846231068061454694
https://x.com/vtg2/status/1846241326813130763
https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/1846168365964161344
https://x.com/jasonzweigwsj/status/1846169402623865106
https://x.com/ChrisWillx/status/1846159093305954710
https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1845960525794234710
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