ISM mfg came in below estimates with declining new orders and employment, while also showing rising prices. Wait that sounds like stagflation, right? Yields fell and stocks sold off as markets decided they care about manufacturing in the U.S. or they sold off because it's September and it's all just seasonal. NVIDIA gettng more DOJ attention probably doesn't help either. The 2Y ended at 3.87% and the 10Y at 3.84%, both near recent lows and both just not willing to uninvert.
Cam Harvey, a Duke finance professor, who in some ways popularized talking about Yield Curve inversions was recently on a CFA podcast, I didn't listen, but someone wrote a nice summary . Anyway, the point is he still believes this portends recession.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is back at 2.0%, down from 2.5%, but you'd take 2% real growth with 5 handle rates all things considered.
Over in Asia add Japan and China's tit for tat over chips to your list of things to have to pretend to read about.
Back to labor in forcus with JOLTS today.
XTOD: "An inverted yield curve is no longer a reliable sign of a recession in the new monetary system of ample reserves and where the core money-market instrument is repo...."
@LondonSW
XTOD: Why haven’t recent rate increases slowed the economy more? Higher policy rates haven’t passed through to the rates paid by private firms and households as much as usual.
This Economic Bulletin has more: https://bit.ly/3YOVE3Q
XTOD: Risk assets have rallied back to their highs, gold likewise, Fed cuts baked in at the ATH, history doesn't repeat but it'll be interesting to see how we deviate from the 2007 September flight path. I still believe Fed cuts are slow, slow and then really friggin fast because something always cracks when real rates are 3% or more for an extended period.
XTOD: Stock market bull Tom Lee said today on CNBC: “I think a 7-10% pullback can happen over the next 8 weeks, but it would be a situation to buy the dip” ... "It's a strong market... Don't think we've seen the tops for 2024."
XTOD: At this stage in my career, I really only want to work on things that are educational and don't contribute to the din. Like if you acted on the information in one of my articles and presentations and I never saw you again, you'd be OK. Kind of like this. https://t.co/6OQTupOAay
XTOD: “In my whole life, I’ve never succeeded much in what I wasn’t interested in. So I don’t think you're going to succeed if what you’re doing all day doesn’t interest you." — Charlie Munger
https://x.com/rcwhalen/status/1830944070249972187
https://x.com/KansasCityFed/status/1831077230455230936
https://x.com/hendry_hugh/status/1831056948764316150
https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1830955965958521108
https://x.com/christine_benz/status/1831066203558944849
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1830411495873581323
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