9 days would have been too many wins in a row for stocks. Bond yields fell again, I don't know maybe increased optimism over a dovish Powell and rate cuts (is that the same as increased economic pessism?) and perhaps in sympathy with Canada, where inflation fell. Talk about increased taxes on things like capital gains and unrealized gains, probably isn't good for stocks.
While we wait for Powell on Friday, we can talk about the election and taxes, but it's probably more fun and productive to talk about Fantasy Football, so I suggest going that route.
Other than that, it's probably not good to bump the control system when you're flying a plane.
One of the interesting things you can do when you have a blog where you track daily the topics that have captured market attention each day and week is, if you pay enough attention, realize how much of it is just noise and a waste of your time. As Taleb says: "the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on." or as Buffett says about his sister: "instinctively knowing the pundits should be ignored."
We will get NFP revisions today (see XTOD) and Minutes from the last FOMC Meeting.
XTOD: nobody will remember:
- your salary
- how “busy you were”
- how many hours you worked
people will remember:
- how you put a lid on your trash can
- how we sent rats packing once and for all
- the day we won the “War on Rats”
XTOD: The core problem is that MBA/finance thinking teaches you to see every company not as a fragile organization of human beings with idiosyncratic skills and knowledge, competing against other such organizations, but as a financial product in a portfolio.
XTOD: Hard to measure but I suspect upper middle class and wealthy boomers are funding millennials and younger generational spending by transferring assets/cash and paying bills, and in the process pumping retail sales and the economy. In essence they are liquidating balance sheets to pay for spending. This is likely to continue as long as stocks/housing prices stay elevated.
XTOD: The Nasdaq just had its fastest 10% rally from correction territory ever.
XTOD (too long, but read this Nickileaks tweet on BLS Revisions if you're interested): https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1825966091354648849
XTOD: Matt Holliday on Parenting
• "It's their career, not mine."
• "I want to help them pursue their passions."
• "Your actions have to back up your desires."
⭐️ Forcing vs. Supporting - Let them be in total control of their journey. You can help, but they need to lead.
https://x.com/NYCMayor/status/1825965638369816734
https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1825933548362281208
https://x.com/real_bill_gross/status/1825912732606148826
https://x.com/michaelbatnick/status/1825958478759997470
https://x.com/BaseballIQ_App/status/1825893306481475758
Horrible
ReplyDelete