Jobs Day in ‘merica. The expectation is for ~+185K headline and unemployment to remain at 3.9%. There will likely be plenty of commentary around the seasonal factors and the impact of immigration. Heading into jobs, stocks and bond yields were little changed yesterday. The 2Y is 4.74% and the 10Y is 4.29%.
The ECB cut by 25bps as expected, citing easing inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. All while also stating that inflation likely to remain above target through next year and expressing some concern about wages. If I had to paraphrase the ECB it would be: we cut despite raising our inflation targets, thanks for asking, but we are central bankers we’re confident in our path ahead….after all our track record of forecasting is stellar.
The SpaceX launch was newsworthy enough or the ECB presser was boring enough that BBG cut way from Lagarde to televise the launch.
In other data nonfarm productivity slowed to 0.2%, unit labor cost slowed to just 4%, the U.S. trade deficit widened and jobless claims rose.
Other than that we're all just doing it wrong, the key to a happy and successful career combining social media post and Gamestop.
XTOD: "Although we were quite coordinated on the way up — and that was really helpful because a big part of inflation was global — you're going to see some divergence on the way down, and that makes sense," top Bank of Canada official Carolyn Rogers told reporters Wednesday. https://axios.com/2024/06/06/rate-cuts-ecb-fed
XTOD: On June 6, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2024 is 2.6%: https://bit.ly/32EYojR #ATLFedResearch
XTOD: Yep. The strongest argument that the world has not yet split into rival blocks that don't trade is that the autocratic block runs a massive combined surplus, and the democratic block a combined deficit. that's only possible with cross-block trade
XTOD: LinkedIn CEO: "Pre-pandemic, it was ~2% of all jobs on the platform were remote jobs. If you go back 2.5 years ago, it peaked at 20%, 21% of all jobs on LinkedIn were remote jobs, which is pretty insane to see that jump from 2% to 21% & now that number is back to 8%"
XTOD: Here's a day in the life of Brunello Cucinelli. The man behind the multi-billion dollar quiet luxury sensation. Sprint, rest, focus. And allocate time for distraction. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPYte5pbUAAlpFt?format=jpg&name=medium
https://x.com/nomiprins/status/1798829242513338559
https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1798741412193657274
https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1798766060558278898
https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1798818381401042983
https://x.com/aschwags3/status/1798675485137965077
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