Markets closed for Good Friday.
Yesterday, 4Q2023 GDP was revised higher yet again, up to 3.9% and jobless claims remain crazy low. As with some other commodities, like cocoa, gold is at record high. Away from the market, FTX founder, SBF, was sentenced to 25 years, less than what many had speculated.
Despite the unambiguously positive economic news of late and stock market gains, earlier in the week, Blackrock's Larry Fink was extremely concerned about the state of U.S. retirement funds. According to Reuters: "Fink said data from the U.S. Census Bureau's survey of consumer finances in 2022 showed nearly half of Americans aged 55 to 65 reported not having a single dollar saved in personal retirement accounts. "Put simply, the shift from defined benefit to defined contribution has been, for most people, a shift from financial certainty to financial uncertainty," he added." Just a reminder that not everyone has benefited from recent economic gains.
Speaking of unequal gains, Ray Dalio was out with a piece this week titled In China: The 100-Year Storm on The Horizon. In it Dalio references his big debt cycles and states: "It is quite typical for such booms to produce debt bubbles and big wealth gaps that lead the booms to turn into bubbles that turn into busts." In China in particular Dalio discusses the history and how a convergence of forces, perhaps accelerated by Covid, coupled with a the domestic debt bubble bursting and increased international conflict has led China toward a more communist nationalist mentality. Dalio states that: "History shows that in all countries through all times during these very difficult 100-year-storm-like periods, leaders go to much more autocratic policies because the alternative becomes great internal conflict and disorder, and typically there are forced changes of leadership that those in power fight against." Dalio believes China needs a 'beautiful deleveraging' lead by debt restructuring coupled with easy money policies to avoid a lost decade. He also sounds concerned about the prospects for wealth confiscation and the possibility that China tries to drag the U.S. into a 3rd war.
XTOD: Not sure what to make of this: -25 Years for SBF sentencing -Just about 100% recovery for FTX clients
XTOD: NYC’s Delinquent Property Taxes Soar Without Incentive to Pay @business #CMBS
▪There’s an estimated $880 million in unpaid taxes this year
▪Cobble Hill, Brooklyn rental owes $52 million, city data shows
XTOD: A favorite quotation from Danny Kahneman: "Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it." (Except Danny.)
XTOD: Dream big, start small, act now. Every small step counts towards your extraordinary future.
https://x.com/Ritholtz/status/1773377028743483849?s=20
https://x.com/danjmcnamara/status/1773357558578741343?s=20
https://x.com/CassSunstein/status/1773011310353014949?s=20
https://x.com/DARRENHARDY/status/1773137261896335394?s=20
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