I still can't believe no one asked Powell for his NCAA pick.
Yesterday's jobless claims data proved you still can't get fired, while S&P PMI's showed continued expansion. The news on the central bank front was slightly more interesting with the Swiss National Bank cutting rates by 25bps to 1.50% in a move that was not priced into expectations. The BoE heled their policy rate at 5.25% but is more clearly moving away from a hiking bias and towards easing.
Even a DOJ anti-trust case against Apple couldn't keep the major indexes from continuing their bull run.
The 2Y yield rose to 4.64%, reclaiming some of the ground lost earlier this week, and the 10Y is 4.27%
We’ll get some Powell at a Fed Listens event today, which will likely be a non-event and everyone will be watching basketball or buying AI stocks anyway.
XTOD: I am concerned because I am hearing reports of a mass epidemic of a terrible 48-hour virus that has people not showing up for work or school today. Hope everyone is feeling okay!!! Take care of yourself, get your rest, nothing more important than your health.
XTOD: DOJ suit against Apple has five claims on monopoly maintenance. Antitrust Division alleges Apple:
1) Blocking super apps
2) Mobile cloud streaming services
3) Excluding cross-platform messaging apps
4) Degrading non-Apple smart watches
5) Limiting third party digital wallets
XTOD: Some thoughts about the bond market treading water since the Fed meeting while risk markets rally ... ----- The Fed cannot randomly pick some day and cut rates. If they do and the market thinks it is not serious about inflation, sell bonds.
In 2022, the Fed hiked 75bps at four consecutive meetings. While they were doing this, inflation hit 9%. But the Fed was "on the case," and the 10-year yield peak was just 4.22%.
Contrast this with 2023. The Fed stopped hiking in late July 2023, when the 10-year yield was 3.95%. Even though inflation had declined from 9% to 4%, the market was "unsure" about the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation. Ninety days later, the 10-year yield jumped to over 5%, peaking in October 2023.
If the Fed is not serious about fighting inflation, when the market thinks it is a problem, it is not serious about owning the 10-year notes.
Fed dovishness only works if the market is convinced inflation is not a problem. Right now, it is unsure.
I long thought inflation was a problem (3% to 4% problem), and the economy is "no landing." So I think the market will resolve that inflation is at least an issue and that the Fed is not acting seriously about it, and it will start selling bonds.
XTOD: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to board members:
"If OpenAl disappeared tomorrow, we have all the IP rights and all the capability. We have the people, we have the compute, we have the data, we have everything. We are below them, above them, around them." Wow.
XTOD: “Welcome back to SportsCenter Presented by ESPN Bet, for more on the Ohtani situation we go to our FanDuel MLB Insider Jeff Passan at our DraftKings Studio in Los Angeles brought to you by Caesar’s Sportsbook. Jeff, how could something like this happen?
https://x.com/SethDavisHoops/status/1770821094070423616?s=20
https://x.com/matthewstoller/status/1770820869843034554?s=20
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1770853788254982501?s=20
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1770832950722015660?s=20
https://x.com/jeffisrael25/status/1770627912112185400?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
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