I didn't write about the Chinese stock market or the Bank of Japan this week because what's there to write? On China go back to this post from August 2023, it tends to be a lot of rinse and repeat of the same general headlines with no real changes to the underlying themes, same with the BoJ. No one cares anyway, we're all just busy watching Netflix apparently, as evidenced by subscriber count.
Bitcoin down something like 20% since ETF's launched. A down day for the Dow so I'll have to slow play the Dow 40K hats. Yesterday's 2Y auction was on the screws at 4.365%. The curve steepened a little with 2's at 4.37% and 10's at 4.14%.
On the day ahead it's S&P PMI's, the Bank of Canada and a 5Y Note Auction
XTOD: Worst trick the devil ever played was to make people believe that BTC supply is limited to 21 mill. It's actually infinite. We can now print as much of that shit as you want. Just like gold. We don't even need to mine that crap. We can create endless quantities through futures and never deliver.
XTOD: We highlight two reasons why unemployed aren't apply for claims: 1) eligibility is at all time low pre-recession. and 2) UI benefits not catching up with inflation, opportunity cost of collecting benefits higher than ever before. We estimate that the average wage coverage gap is bigger than ever, abut $1400/week. Why collect benefits when you can earn way more as gig worker or freelancer and actually be able to pay your bills? The lower the coverage of UI, the lower the recipiency rate, at state level. One implication of this: when UI claims do rise to a high level, then it is truly painful for people -- more so than the same level of UI in past recession.....because this time around UI claims can no longer pay the bills, and one must have exhausted other options.
XTOD: I read once (forget where) that as recently as 100 years ago the rich had the worst medical care, because they could afford all the quack treatments from sham doctors offering miracle cures that would actually just increase your odds of death/poisoning. Something something, financial advice.
XTOD: i spent years being really confused about why states and municipalities were hoarding cash after Covid but honestly I kinda get it now! mea culpa theyre now spending down those cash reserves, and it’s helping stave off a real recession
XTOD: For a certain type of voter, the logical conclusion of "everything is terrible—but I'm fine" is "burn this whole damn system down—but don't go changing things"
https://x.com/nickgiva1/status/1749517780150292550?s=20
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1749637761731015135?s=20
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1749566971086332362?s=20
https://x.com/alexandrascaggs/status/1749846772967506181?s=20
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1749869004766752907?s=20
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