Yields fell again yesterday as JOLTS data seemed to continue to lend some credence to the soft landing chatter as openings declined by more than expected. Per GS research, "our jobs-workers gap based on the JOLTS, Indeed, and LinkUp measures of job openings stands at roughly 2mn workers—in line with the level we estimate is necessary to rebalance the labor market and return inflation to 2% on a sustainable basis." On the other hand ISM Services data showed a strong report including an increase in the employment metrics.
To start the day, yields are up ~3-4bps with the 2Y at 4.62% and the 10Y at 4.20%. On the day ahead it's ADP Employment data and Productivity data. We'll see if ADP (which is a notoriously bad predictor of how the Employment report on Friday will print) continues to cement market expectations for "lower and faster" for 2024 rate cuts.
XTOD: soft landing you have to stop. your inflation too soft. your jobs market too moderated. your economy too normalized. they’ll kill you soft landing
XTOD: Pretty sure this is the Fed keeping REPO/SOFR in check. Fed REPO line tapped at the highest level since the massive stick Sept. '19 repocalypse. 200mm is pretty small but not to be ignored. This is why they killed Libor...so they can maintain control of the reference rate.
XTOD: Today the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on behalf of Charles and Kathleen Moore. Here is an overview: In 2018, Charles and Kathleen Moore learned that – because of the Mandatory Repatriation Tax – they had to pay income tax on a stock investment, even though they realized absolutely nothing on it. We believe the Constitution prevents Congress from levying this kind of tax on the Moores – because the Moores never realized any income. “The word ‘income’ in the Sixteenth Amendment means the same thing today that it meant in 1913: economic gains coming in to the taxpayer. That’s why appreciation in the value of a home, a stock investment, or other property is not and never has been taxed as income” Without the need for income to be realized by taxpayers for Congress to tax them on it, all bets are off. We are hopeful that the Court will follow the original meaning of the Amendment and reaffirm that there is no income without realization.
XTOD: The Supreme Court looked unlikely to impose strict new limits on Congress’s power to tax income, with some conservative and liberal justices alike signaling wariness about upending long-settled principles of the federal tax code https://on.wsj.com/415mxjf
XTOD: NEW: Elon Musk's AI startup, xAI, has filed with the SEC to raise up to $1 billion in an equity offering. The company has already brought in nearly $135M from 4 investors & has a “binding and enforceable agreement” for purchase of the remaining shares.
XTOD: MORGAN STANLEY: “.. 5% of the US population is taking #GLP1 drugs, with 11.4% of households having at least one member currently taking GLP-1s ..” [Huberty]
XTOD: Zoom fatigue is not burnout. It’s boreout. New study: when meetings are virtual, we’re not overwhelmed—we’re understimulated. Cardiac measures show drowsiness, not stress. The antidotes are common sense but not common practice: fewer, shorter, more interactive online meetings.
XTOD: Harvard President Claudine Gay refused to answer my question about whether @Harvard
received $1.5 BILLION in funding from foreign entities and governments for its Middle East Studies Department. This is unacceptable. The American people have a right to know how foreign governments are influencing our colleges and universities. In fact, it is required by law.
XTOD: “If you mislead a player, you lose them forever. If you tell them the truth, you lose them for about 24 hours." -Jim Leyland
XTOD: "If you're chasing money you won't find your dream. If you're chasing the dream, you'll find the money." -Jim Leyland
https://x.com/kylascan/status/1732109221620019559?s=20
https://x.com/TheBondFreak/status/1732157468665348363?s=20
https://x.com/ceidotorg/status/1732091610442113441?s=20
https://x.com/haydenfield/status/1732138499162419265?s=20
https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/1732027639366402397?s=20
https://x.com/AdamMGrant/status/1732069714581475436?s=20
https://x.com/RepStefanik/status/1732133853312008633?s=20
https://x.com/CalicoJoeMLB/status/1731832435401236492?s=20
https://x.com/CoachYourKids/status/1731814860667736290?s=20
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