The 2Y yield is up ~4bps to start the day at 4.87%, the 10Y is up ~4bps to ~4.60%. Will the post-QRA, post-FOMC, and post-Jobs report, bond and stock market rallies continue?
The week ahead features plenty of Fedspeak, actual Treasury auctions and limited data. If part of the narrative around the Fed not needing to hike again was predicated on higher long-term bond yields, how does the recent 30+ basis point move lower in those yields potentially impact that narrative? If Powell or other Fed officials are going to talk up potential hikes they'll have plenty of opportunities to do so this week.
Today: Fed gov. Cook, SLOOS
Tue: Trade balance, tons of Fedspeak with Williams and Waller in the mix, 3Y Note Auction
Wed: Powell speaks, Wholesale Inventories, Vice Chair Jefferson, 10Y Note Auction
Thur: Jobless claims, Bostic, Barkin and moar Powell, 30Y Bond Auction
Fri: UofM survey about gas prices and more Fedspeak
XTOD: interest rates at zero = good for the wealthy interest rates at 5% = Universal Basic Income via 5% yields on risk-free US govt bonds for the wealthy interest rates fall from 5% and bonds jump in price = good for the wealthy if i were you in the economy, i would simply be rich.
XTOD: It’s amazing how many texts, DMs, @, etc. I get when it looks like Sahm rule triggered. (It didn’t.) Y’all really want that recession …
XTOD: The S&P 500 could soar another 18% by year-end, as the economy is strong and the Fed is likely to end its rate hike cycle, according to Oppenheimer.
XTOD: I have now had SEVERAL close friends confide in me that they are surviving on debt that are dual income households earning 250-400k per year. Keeping up with the Jones’s is a major priority to that subset of earners, and they’re all in trouble because of it. They will spend until they can’t, but I assure you they are rapidly nearing the point where they can’t. Everything I see with my own eyes in my own life and community are now screaming recession. Wasn’t the case a year ago, I see it now.
XTOD: It's a parable, where every time a scorpion stings someone the victim gets a lecture on how to treat scorpion stings and how not to provoke scorpions. No one lectures the scorpions, and they don't listen anyway.
XTOD: Zuckerberg is way richer than me, but I'm pretty sure that if I blew out my knee, I would have the same surgery as him. This simple truth, about how technological advances diffuse through a population, escapes critics of techno-capitalism.
XTOD: He's right. 👇The Fed added a huge fixed-for-floating $8 trillion interest rate swap to the consolidated government's balance sheet; the Fed is paying floating and receiving fixed.
XTOD: Just released Grok
XTOD: Jason Cummins at Brevan Howard: The “new normal” looks like a unique period of historically depressed interest rates. The “new abnormal” will be characterised by higher and more volatile inflation and a return to structurally higher interest rates.
XTOD: “The buildings don’t go away,” - Warren Buffett
“But the owners do… I think that the hollowing out of the downtowns, in the United States and elsewhere in the world, is going to be significant and quite unpleasant,” -Charlie Munger
https://x.com/talmonsmith/status/1720502589169537453?s=20
https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1720450694170230832?s=20
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1720460071048806878?s=20
https://x.com/SandLot84/status/1720552710506721564?s=20
https://x.com/Kasparov63/status/1720519002869407848?s=20
https://x.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1720825461322690925?s=20
https://x.com/HannoLustig/status/1720945974544355406?s=20
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1721027243571380324?s=20
https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1721240327564960053?s=20
https://x.com/ShlomoChopp/status/1720998660236865961?s=20
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