After falling ~10bps yesterday in the wake of weak residential home sales data and treasury auctions that were at a minimum decent, yields start the day up ~2bps with the 2Y at 4.88% and the 10Y at 4.40% . Today we'll get more housing price data, consumer confidence data, a 7Y auction and Fedspeak. Headlines around Black Friday and Cyber Monday seem to indicate that the consumer is still healthy and if you traveled over the Thanksgiving holiday there were plenty of people out and about.
XTOD: Let me know how the ‘sticky’ inflation narrative is working out, when median new home prices in October sunk a record -18% YoY, taking out the worst point (-15%) we saw in the Great Recession.
XTOD: The retweet is the fintwit chart of the day. It is NEW home sales, 18% of all home sales. The other 82% is EXISTING home sales, and those prices are not falling (an earlier tweet). How are the builders faring during this "crash?" Up 51% YTD! The market is not worried, why are you?
XTOD: "the presence of a Cheesecake Factory restaurant in a mall is an indicator of the mall's financial health... About 93% of loans backed by malls with a Cheesecake Factory are current on their payments; compare that to around 72% of those without..."
XTOD: Agreed. Last week, I went to my local bodega for a Philly cheese steak sandwich. To my shock, Pablo, my absolute boy and sandwich maker extraordinaire, told me: "No hay más Philly cheese steak, Señor Jack." When I asked why, he started crying, and whispered, "big sandwich," pointing at the TV. Sure enough, Roark Capital executives were on CNBC, gloating about how they would put every bodega in New York out of business by monopolizing the sandwich market. Small business owners would no longer be able to compete, as hungry consumers would certainly flock from miles to Subway and Jimmy Johns for their higher quality food, kinder employees, and better restaurant ambience. I imagine that prioritizing FTC resources must be tough. Sure, Microsoft is choking the emerging AI industry with its land-grab OpenAI investment. And, yes, Apple holds Google at gunpoint, charging insane fees to include Chrome on iPhones. And, okay, fine, Amazon might actually be jeopardizing thousands of small businesses with their anti-competitive pricing practices. But I applaud Elizabeth Warren for taking a stand against big sandwich. Being a senator is a thankless job, but I stand with you, Lizzy.
XTOD: Proptech graveyard 🪦/infirmary 🤒: Running list....https://x.com/hitsamty/status/1729212085689864341?s=20
XTOD: Office was the first commercial real estate asset class to enter distress this cycle. Class B & C Multifamily in the Sunbelt is the next shoe to drop. Too many of these properties were purchased between 2020-2022 at extremely low cap rates that buyers were able to make pencil…https://x.com/kylematthewsceo/status/1729160535285838041?s=20
XTOD: Financial death by a thousand $14.99 monthly subscriptions
XTOD: "Writing forces you to slow down, focus your attention, and think deeply. In a world where attention is fragmented in seconds, thinking becomes more reactive than reasoned. Only when we have time to play with a problem can we hope to think about it substantially. Writing requires sticking with something a little longer and developing a deeper understanding...https://t.co/yED07XYKEf
https://x.com/scottlincicome/status/1729135630553321508?s=20
https://x.com/EconguyRosie/status/1729187829517787484?s=20
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1729378888315461988?s=20
https://x.com/Jack_Raines/status/1729171135827263571?s=20
https://x.com/hitsamty/status/1729212085689864341?s=20
https://x.com/kylematthewsceo/status/1729160535285838041?s=20
https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1729223990093209645?s=20
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1728752581973786776?s=20
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