Daily Economic Update: November 16, 2023

Yesterday, Retail Sales come in better than expected with upwardly revised numbers, showing the consumer is still hanging in there (fairly obvious for anyone who leaves their house or office) and PPI showed mild disinflation. Yields rose ~10bps, but equities shrugged it off and made their current winning streak 4 days. In other news Biden said Xi is a dictator and people on Tik-Tok now believe Osama Bin Laden is a Saint.

Yields are down ~4bps to to start the day with the 2Y at 4.89% and the 10Y slipping under 4.50%.  Import Prices, Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, NAHB housing index, Walmart earnings and a bunch of Fed officials at a Treasury conference.

XTOD: Looked up the 1976 prospectus for the First Index Investment Trust (now Vanguard 500) to give some  context to concentration fears.  

When FIIT launched the top 5 companies accounted for over 21% of S&P 500, and top 10 were 28.3%. Not far off today's 23.5% and 32% respectively?

XTOD: “After several quarters of stagnant productivity, we have gotten productivity growth. If you have productivity growth, you can have faster wage and GDP growth without generating inflation.”

XTOD: The  @WSJ  chart on the cumulative change in the cost of three key items for US households— gasoline, food and houses — during the current inflation episode.

This chart goes beyond capturing the pressure and pain that the average household has felt due to high inflation. It is also a reminder of the distributional effects, including the vulnerability of poor households.

XTOD: I met a derivative dealer who emailed me to hire my students. My former student in his firm is only junior who knows about market making. As Finance, Money/Banking profs, we should cover topics like Industrial organizations & dealers. They are important, they pay off, they are cool.

XTOD: The head of Germany's drug regulator BfArM is considering an export ban on Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug Ozempic, which is in high demand for its weight-loss benefits, to prevent a further worsening of a supply shortage

XTOD: Im not going to invest in the stock market until 

1. I have clarity on economic data

2. The government is exactly like I want it

3.  There's no conflicts in the World

4. The market feels "safe"

5. The news is calm

6. I can better understand why the market is moving like it is. oh I forgot to add

7.  The market is cheap.

XTOD: i assume this is a masterful troll in which case well done

XTOD: Same day again in USA. Value holding in / doing well. Junk / Cathie wood soaring. It’s almost like the prospect of even slightly lower interest rates sends fools into buying crap from messianic hucksters. Almost.

XTOD: Reece Duca: "My goal is basically to wake up in the morning, love what I'm doing, love who I'm working with, be proud of what I'm doing, [and] help other people to be successful."

XTOD: Mike Tyson flew into Poland to buy one hundred pigeons from a breeder in the small village of Piątnica.  Once billed as “the most dangerous man on the planet”, Tyson has long been known for his love of pigeons.  He found solace in caring for pigeons during a traumatic childhood.

https://x.com/RobinWigg/status/1724715023204077709?s=20

https://x.com/Austan_Goolsbee/status/1724580002828599437?s=20

https://x.com/elerianm/status/1724755877427634181?s=20

https://x.com/elham_saeidi/status/1724439048670831065?s=20

https://x.com/Reuters/status/1724739783874773410?s=20

https://x.com/BullandBaird/status/1724852422265250031?s=20

https://x.com/nkreu113r/status/1724907045076488268?s=20

https://x.com/CliffordAsness/status/1724808815286133230?s=20

https://x.com/NeckarValue/status/1724542751318986807?s=20

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1724858870504325440?s=20