Another CPI day is here, see below for estimates. Very little movement in stocks and bonds yesterday, as the Moody's warning seemed to be a momentary non-event and NY Fed inflation expectations did little to move markets. There seems to be some who believe that survey's of expected inflation out 5 years only being at 2.7% is a good thing, but that strikes me as being greater than 2%.
Ahead of CPI yields are little changed with the 2Y at 5.03% and the 10Y at 4.62%. Oil has quietly climbed back towards $80 and the Yen, well it's the Yen, and it's weakened again to a 151 handle. In the EU data on GDP was in line with expectations for weak growth, while the employment data came in above estimates.
All eyes will be on today's CPI, but ahead of Xi's first U.S. visit in over 5 years you can "treat" yourself to Ray Dalio's latest thinking on US-China relations. When Ray wasn't busy rigging his firms "believability" metrics he does find time for other thinking.
XTOD: SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS, OCTOBER
Median inflation expectations declined slightly to 3.6% and 2.7% at the one- and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively, but were unchanged at 3.0% at the three-year-ahead horizon.
XTOD: Goldman CPI Preview: "We expect a 0.32% increase in October core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 4.13% (vs. 4.1% consensus). We expect a 0.09% increase in October headline CPI (vs. 0.1% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.29% (vs. 3.3% consensus). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.28% increase in core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent in October."
XTOD: This week's big data report is the October CPI Wall Street forecasters expect the core index rose 0.34% from September, raising the 12-month rate to 4.2% from 4.1% They see the headline index up 0.1% from September, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.3% from 3.7%
XTOD: Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 3.28% in October. Check it out: http://clefed.org/3yCkTHV
XTOD: BofA Fund Manager Survey
-76% say hiking cycle is over
-80% expect lower short rates
-Record 61% expect lower yields
-Just 6% see higher CPI in 2024
XTOD: Some 900 earthquakes hit southern Iceland on Monday, adding to the tens of thousands of tremors that rattled the region in recent weeks as the country prepares for what could become a significant volcanic eruption https://reut.rs/47aQj8q
XTOD: "..Economic anger expressed in the polls may be less about current economic conditions and more about the economy the US has built over the past 40 years: one of high and rising inequality, with greater economic fragility due to higher income volatility and a reduced safety net."
XTOD: 〽️anage your time, 〽️aster your routine, 〽️ake a positive impact!
https://x.com/NYFedResearch/status/1724146966576123951?s=20
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1724152440583332033?s=20
https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1724026825104671085?s=20
https://x.com/ClevelandFed/status/1724177861249061092?s=20
https://x.com/FerroTV/status/1724362896820351046?s=20
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1724137552872108177?s=20
https://x.com/nomiprins/status/1724150187893903848?s=20
https://x.com/mamedina8/status/1724035068966912139?s=20
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