Daily Economic Update: October 17, 2023

 

Yields decided to take a break from bull flattening to resume their bear steepening, as the 10Y rose ~8bps yesterday to close above 4.70% while the 2Y rose only ~4bps to close at 5.10%.  This morning that move continues with 10Y moving another 5bps higher out to 4.76% while the 2Y is ~5.11%.  Markets continue to monitor foreign and domestic politics. Biden to travel to Israel tomorrow and domestically it's possible there is a vote to install Jim Jordan as Speaker of the House. There is still the ongoing UAW strike and in other financial news China's CRE is still a mess, as Country Garden debt could end up in default, and in the UK wages rose less than expected but still was up 8.1% YoY, so I guess inflation is under control.

On the day ahead we get BofA and GS earnings, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Bowman and Bostic .

XTOD: Too many people are playing life like it's a single player game.   That's like trying to solve a puzzle with only half the pieces.

XTOD: Scientists propose sweeping new law of nature, expanding on evolution http://reut.rs/3LZ21uk

XTOD: Worth the read The Loser’s Game   By Charles D Ellis

XTOD: There's no free lunch. Save on labor, lose it to theft.

XTOD: No priority ever goes unfunded. If the votes are there, the money is there. 

True for defense.

True for Medicare.

True for Social Security.

XTOD: Yardi: "Multifamily rents turned negative in September, with the average U.S. rent declining $6 from August and $3 during the third quarter."  "It marked the first time since 2009 when national rents decreased in September."

XTOD: A fake news report that sparked a brief 10% rally in Bitcoin is shining a spotlight on a crypto industry that’s waiting with bated breath for the arrival of mass-market ETFs

XTOD: Bosses want people back in the office, but employees are finding a workaround—it's called 'coffee badging'

https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1713984010387603470?s=20

https://x.com/Reuters/status/1714023917818437872?s=20

https://x.com/F_Compounders/status/1713845958629343727?s=20

https://x.com/USRoute41/status/1713917482644234478?s=20

https://x.com/adam_tooze/status/1713884147821707762?s=20

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1714009019784819047?s=20

https://x.com/business/status/1714026724168491365?s=20

https://x.com/CNBC/status/1714061491647783400?s=20