XTOD: How the drivers of US yields have evolved this (last) week: Monday/Tuesday: Dovish statements from #FederalReserve officials (lower yields); Wednesday/Thursday: Somewhat hotter than expected (PPI and CPI) inflation numbers (higher yield); and Today: Geopolitical concerns (lower yields).
XTOD: When researchers analyzed the performance of 18,000 regular gamblers in casino games, only 13% won over a two-year period. But, less than 1% of day traders reliably generated a positive return two years running. Bookmark this 🧵 for the next time you feel like day trading:
XTOD: 2023 study: “Our thesis is that a primary cause of the rise in mental disorders is a decline over decades in opportunities for children and teens to play, roam, and engage in other activities independent of direct oversight and control by adults." Psychologists sometimes talk about "get out of your head and into your body." You know what's really good at doing the opposite: taking you out of your body? Spending hours craned over at a screen where people you'll never meet are saying stuff that makes you feel a certain way.
XTOD: this is absolutely wild but my favorite bit is maybe when someone asks "what's the #1 thing that CZ might find in diligence that could blow up the deal" and she's like "oh nothing, FTX is pretty straightforward, except for the customer funds shortfall."
XTOD: I said it about Elizabeth Holmes, and I’ll say it about SBF: they are both functionary scapegoats. That does not mean they’re not both incredibly guilty and deserve to be punished to the full extent of the law. It means the serve a psychological and social role in our society. If you don’t understand that they fulfill the role of scapegoats—that they are stand-in’s for the guilt of many others—you don’t understand Girard’s theory.
XTOD: The surge in private credit has led to significantly compressed lending spreads relative to history. The argument is that these funds are lending to better credits. But anyone who has been through a few credit cycles knows that when spreads squeeze forward returns suffer.
XTOD: If a war with China over Taiwan takes us by surprise, we will have only ourselves to blame. We were blindsided by Ukraine, blindsided by Israel. By now we should have learned that the world is a more dangerous place than it was five or ten years ago.
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