Daily Economic Update: August 24, 2023

Apparently 8/24 is the date that more people call out sick than any other date.  After bonds rallied solidly and stocks rose on Wednesday, Thursday starts with 2Y up ~3bps at 4.98% and 10Y up ~1bp at 4.21%.  WSJ article with quotes from former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard where he calls recession fears overblown and mentions the possibility of the Fed going to 6%.
Stocks look to rise following Nvidia post-close earnings beat on news that we're all just generative AI running on their chips after all. We get jobless claims and durable goods orders on the data front today.

XTOD: Don't forget. Yellen has unholy powers to make you buy bonds. Even if you don't want to

XTOD: Love it.  Every fleeing H4L on silly survey data ahead of Jackson Hole

XTOD: Everyone buying a house is like “well, rates will come down, so can just refi” and that’s why rates are so high to begin with.

XTOD: The Kremlin continues to target and attack Ukraine’s ports and food exports. This time, Russian forces destroyed 13,000 tons of grain that was destined for Egypt and Romania.

XTOD: Books that endure don't look like good books; they are almost always very poorly written, but address fundamental topics. Masterfully crafted ones generate excitement; they look like "great works", get prizes, impress academics, critics, & empty suits, then fade away.....3)Samuelson on Keynes's General Theory:  "a badly written book, poorly organized; any layman who bought it was cheated of his 5 shillings ... not suited for classroom use... arrogant, bad-tempered. polemical...abounds in confusions.  (...) In short, it is a work of genius."

XTOD: A very thoughtful look at designed insecurity and how it manifests itself in the financial world and beyond. https://nytimes.com/2023/08/18/opinion/inequality-insecurity-economic-wealth.html?smid=tw-share via  @nytopinion   +  @astradisastra

XTOD: Still one of the most important market dynamics to watch: inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (magenta, inverted) are at cycle highs, yet valuations (blue) remain lofty. No knowing how/when the lines converge again, but the gap is not likely sustainable

XTOD: Brazil’s former president may be arrested because of expensive watches sold at Philadelphia suburban Willow Grove Mall   inquirer.com/politics/phila… via @phillyinquirer

Links to original "X"/Tweets (in order)
https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1694308826336338004?s=20 https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1694347482799444347?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1694161955592847483?s=20
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1694507401028706495?s=20
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1694081785397641683?s=20
https://twitter.com/nomiprins/status/1694501248471359565?s=20
https://x.com/lizyoungstrat/status/1694056023428862433?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
https://x.com/retheauditors/status/1694668011230150813?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA