TTOD: via James Galbraith (Aug 9, 2023) "Back in 2021 and early 2022, a posse of prominent economists...all of Harvard...[argued] that inflation, fueled by federal spending, would prove “persistent"...But...inflation peaked on its own in mid-2022 (owing partly to sales from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve). There was no persistence, no surge from the 2021 fiscal stimulus, and no wage-driven inflation from low unemployment.....There also has been no recession, unemployment has not risen, and higher interest rates have not deterred business investment.. Residential construction took a hit, but the construction sector overall soon shook that off, and the banking crisis earlier this year has not led to financial contagion. A recession remains possible, of course, but so far there are very few warning signs...These happy circumstances have led some observers to congratulate Powell...But ...There is no way, under any theory or precedent, that rate hikes beginning in January 2022 could have knocked back inflation by July of the same year...Whatever its consequences down the road, the Fed’s policy tightening has been irrelevant to the inflation slowdown so far ...why haven’t 18 months of rising interest rates had any perceptible effect on employment, investment, or growth?"
TTOD: We’ve all thought about it. Some of us have studied it. But I have studied it more than anyone. The geography. The strategy. I know how to do it. HOW TO INVADE, OCCUPY, AND PARTITION CANADA
TTOD: 1. Zillow signed rents declining 2. Vacancy rates rising 3. Apt supply booming “.. suggest that further declines in rental inflation are barreling down the pipe.”
TTOD: Yep. The rest of the 2020s in China will be a big game to figure out who takes the losses from the real estate bubble.
TTOD: Today I learned Eddie Vedder wrote Better Man as a teenager and played it with his previous band, Bad Radio. The song was so personal, he didn’t want to perform it with Pearl Jam, but eventually he was convinced.
Citations to TTOD (in order of post):
@StephanieKelton (Stephanie Kelton): "via James Galbraith (Aug 9, 2023)"Back in 2021 and early 2022, a posse of prominent economists...all of Harvard...[argued] that inflation, fueled by federal spending, would prove “persistent"... 1/. Twitter thread, 10 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1689698487254786050?s=20
@mualphaxi (Max Meyer): "We’ve all thought about it.Some of us have studied it.But I have studied it more than anyone. The geography. The strategy. I know how to do it. HOW TO INVADE, OCCUPY, AND PARTITION CANADA. Twitter, 10 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/mualphaxi/status/1689684491357364230?s=20
@carlquintanilla (Carl Quintanilla) "1. Zillow signed rents declining 2. Vacancy rates rising 3. Apt supply booming “.. suggest that further declines in rental inflation are barreling down the pipe.” Twitter, 10 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1689657703390392320?s=20
@Noahpinion (Noah Smith) "Yep. The rest of the 2020s in China will be a big game to figure out who takes the losses from the real estate bubble." Twitter, 11 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1689963264514670592?s=20
@donnelly_brent (Brent Donnelly), "Today I learned Eddie Vedder wrote Better Man as a teenager and played it with his previous band, Bad Radio. The song was so personal, he didn’t want to perform it with Pearl Jam, but eventually he was convinced. Bad Radio - Better Man (1st Studio Version - Demos 1988) https://youtu.be/KQkhP4isUp4 via @YouTube", Twitter, 10 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent/status/1689760913170026496?s=20
Per BLS Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to
ReplyDelete3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up
in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in
transportation and warehousing declined.
AHE below estimates, coupled with rising U-3 and U-6 has bond yields falling, 2Y under 4.80