Daily Economic Update: May 28, 2025

I’m Not Unconfident

It was a good day for equities as we head into Nvidia earnings today. The combination of soaring consumer confidence and renewed tariff optimism seemed to do the trick. While I’m still not sure what to make of sentiment data these days, there is no denying that the Conference Board data was positive.  The index rose to 98, well above expectations and with solid internal metrics, including a slight decline in inflation expectations.  Consumers also reported that “compared to April, purchasing plans for homes and cars and vacation intentions increased notably, with some significant gains after May 12.” 

And if you think consumers and “retail” are a contra-indicator then this observation might give you pause: “With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.”

The S&P closed at 5,921.

I’ll Keep Spending Until Ricardo Is Correct

I’m old enough to remember when deficits caused consumers pause, now they seem to ramp assets. 

Economists used to have a tidy theory to explain how deficits might behave in practice.

Back in the early 1820’s economist David Ricardo posited what is now known as “Ricardian Equivalence” a theory that if governments resorted to issuing bonds rather than raising tax revenue, consumers would ultimately save the deficit funds in anticipation of higher future taxes. In short, deficit-financed fiscal policy may have no impact on aggregate demand.

With fiscal deficits and “bond vigilantes” part of the current financial lexicon, there is seemingly no evidence that Ricardian Equivalence holds in the U.S. today. In fact, it seems like recent trends suggest exactly the opposite.  For example, consumers spent the Covid stimulus (likely rightly so), and even after incessant headlines about deficits, consumers continued to run up debt and spend.

So what gives? Is it just that we all think that deficits don’t matter, or that we don’t think tax rates will be raised until long after we’re gone, or that we’ll grow our way out of it, or in today’s attention economy are we just oblivious?

As usual, I don’t know, but if Ricardian Equivalence is a lost cause, it would seem like there could be some investment implications as continued deficits fuel demand.  A couple of possible investment implications would be that strong stimulus via deficits is likely to support cyclical stocks or other sectors seen as beneficiaries of the deficit spending. Of course deficit-fueled growth could just as easily see inflation, “crowding out”, and perhaps instability (if you truly don’t think you’ll ever get paid back in real terms).

It’s Complicated

Now overlay tariffs into this whole discussion and “it’s complicated”.  You see tariffs are taxes paid by importers but then we might have tax cuts for consumers, which as we discussed above, are likely just to be spent, then do we have rising demand crashing into constrained supply? That would seem to be a recipe for the dreaded stagflation.  

Perhaps a higher pressure economy coupled with AI will lead to a productivity boom and solve all problems. Or maybe Crypto Solves This…sorry I just love saying that.  

Until Our Problems Are All Solved

In the meantime, U.S. yield pressure has abated some with the 2Y back under 4.00% (at 3.99%) and the 10Y back under 4.50% (at 4.45%).  And even for all the USD hate, the dollar index (DXY) still is above where it spent most of pre-Covid.

We’ll see if Nvidia delivers the AI miracle, or if we’re just buying GPUs at the top again.

XTODs:

XTOD: Mohnish Pabrai on The Investor's Podcast: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gr-PEbzXUAAxh7s?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: Saying “it might bounce back” is not a great argument, and is not “especially true” of laddered bond portfolios.  Myths never die. This is #10.  https://aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdf

I feel so defeated

XTOD (P.S. I didn’t forget): Interesting, so Michael Saylor is refusing to publish on chain proof of $BTC reserves...How quickly everyone forgets $MSTR was found guilty of accounting fraud in 2001.  🤫 https://x.com/i/status/1927190678724850120

XTOD: Ego Is The Enemy. You’re not as good as you think. You don’t have it all figured out. Stay focused. Do better.

XTOD: Ethics and Human Well-being:  Spinoza proposed that happiness or "blessedness" comes from living in accordance with reason and understanding the necessity of all things. 

Note that this is a very stoic thought. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gr9HoBTWwAAtElB?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://x.com/kejca/status/1927416700137263261

https://x.com/CliffordAsness/status/1927362335099769210

https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1927190678724850120

https://x.com/RyanHoliday/status/1927393613626905024

https://x.com/GodPlaysCards/status/1927337923013177490

 

Daily Economic Update: May 14, 2025

May 14, 2025

The Market Has No Memory?

Obviously the market has no memory in the literal sense, it’s not a sentient being after all, but don’t we all use anthropomorphism when discussing the markets?  The way the collective “us” that is “the market” processes past market histories, the stories and emotions we assign to them, the way we like to look at charts, all give the market some semblance of a memory. 

After all, what is price action but the sum of expectations, reactions, traumas, and dreams—layered on by people who’ve been here before? And by people who think they’ve been here before.

The ghosts of 2008, the Covid crash, even the recent rate hikes still whisper through risk premiums and investor skittishness. They don't show up in earnings reports. But they show up in how fast we sell, how cautiously we re-enter, and how reflexively we chase when FOMO flips back on.

So when the S&P swings 1,000 points in six weeks, don’t just look at inflation data or jobless claims. Look at the psychology of price. Are we fighting the last war? Repeating the last mistake? Or just trying to forget?

Just over a month ago, the S&P index dipped below 5,000—headlines screamed correction, and everyone started whispering about stagflation. And yet here we are: ~5,900 and year-to-date losses erased. Fear forgotten. Again.

But not really forgotten. Because the market does remember. Not like a robot. Like a person. Because that’s what it is—a crowd with a collective memory, triggered by chart patterns, headlines, and the X accounts that want to remind you about the GFC, tech bubble, or depression.

It remembers pain. It remembers euphoria. And right now, it’s choosing euphoria again—at least until the next “unforeseen” event we’ll all pretend to be shocked by.

Because the market doesn’t suffer amnesia. It suffers denial.  As Howard Marks’ says: "the first cause [of market euphoria] is extreme brevity of the financial memory.”

Today’s Lesson: The Market Has a Subconscious (So Do You)

“Without our knowing it, we see reality through glasses colored by the subconscious memory of previous experiences.” Not the words you’d expect to see in a finance blog, but while the finance crowd’s subconscious doesn’t get airtime on CNBC it runs the show when the market swings a few percentage points. The problem is the collective subconscious probably doesn’t match your true goals and to make matters worse our own true goals can be buried within our own subconscious. 

The market’s subconscious shows up in sentiment, in panic, in denial and probably in every algorithm that is patterned off trading behavior.  The challenge is while the market memory is “real” it doesn’t fit into any spreadsheet, but we all see the subconscious of the collective leak out into the open when we get jarring moves.

If we want to invest well, dare I say sanely, we need a better relationship with our subconscious. The part of us that flinches as losses, panics at headlines, projects every fear into the next chart and also paradoxically gets lost in the euphoria when things are going well.

The monks say that prayer trains the inner life so they can find deeper truth.  Wall Street might say it is “process” that allows them to avoid falling prey to the delusions of the masses. But both are about cultivating awareness, discipline and humility. Finding space between reaction and response. 

You don’t beat the market by outsmarting it. You beat it by not becoming a puppet of your subconscious when it matters most.

So maybe the next time volatility spikes, don’t just check your exposure.

Check your interior life…and review these past posts, here and here. 

And if you don’t think all the investing greats would agree with this lesson then you're not paying attention.  

“Some people are not emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks" - Buffett

“The ability to keep raw irrational emotions under control" - Munger

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Trade war on, yields up. Trade war off, yields up. Inflation beat, yields up. Dollar down, yields up. Dollar up, yields up. Risk on, yields up. Risk off, yields up. 

That is why this is not a dip, this is a triple infection of the secular order, cyclical expansion, and US bubble all at once, from the highest valuations in a century, already mid-recession with no intent to ease monetarily, delinquencies at or near highs, credit turning down, rapid earnings downgrades and…Pro-cyclical fiscal austerity, if not by choice then by imposition.

XTOD: Absolutely disgusting.  For every $1 you deposit in your IRA, Basic Capital will match $4 as a loan.  But interest on that loan is 6.26% and the account costs $300/year to maintain. Plus, they charge 0.50%/year on the investments and take 5% of your gains.  GTFOH.

XTOD: In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended.  

I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. Here’s why.

XTOD: Most people endure decades of work they hate, hoping one day they’ll be free.  Naval calls this “the deferred life plan.” And he believes it’s a lie.  “Looking forward to vacations takes the joy out of every day.”  For Naval, life isn’t something to delay. It’s something to design.

XTOD: I routinely write “No hurry, no pause” at the top of my notebooks as a daily reminder. 

You can get 95% of the results you want by calmly putting one foot in front of the other. 

One former Navy SEAL friend once texted me a principle used in their training: “Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast.”  Perhaps I’m just getting old, but my definition of luxury has changed over time. Now, it’s not about owning a lot of stuff. Luxury, to me, is feeling unrushed. 

No hurry, no pause.

https://x.com/TotemMacro/status/1922334120455127417

https://x.com/dougboneparth/status/1922352672088248344

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1922315906530869381

https://x.com/jaynitx/status/1922253635024535618

https://x.com/tferriss/status/1922361086248157554

Daily Economic Update: April 1, 2025

Powell Rangers & Tariffed Tequilas: March 2025 Market Madness

Alright, let's dive into the financial circus that was March 2025.  March kicked off with markets still reeling from February’s “growth scare.” The S&P 500 wobbled, and investors squinted at economic data like it held the meaning of life—or at least their 401(k) balance.

The “t” word, tariffs! They were still the economic equivalent of that annoying song you can't get out of your head. Remember the pause on Mexico? Me either, but that felt like a brief moment of sanity in a world increasingly fueled by tariffed tequila dreams. But the talk of "reciprocal" tariffs kept the markets on edge, wondering which beloved consumer good would be next in line for a price hike.

Inflation remained the uninvited guest at every economic party, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic pretty much telling everyone the Fed's 2% target was a pipe dream for the foreseeable future. Rate cut hopes for 2025 were fading faster than my spring break suntan. The Fed, those Powell Rangers, were still in data-dependent mode, which, as usual, meant they were just as confused as the rest of us.

Consumer confidence took a nosedive, hitting a 12-year low and flashing recession warning signs, though some of us were probably just feeling the effects of tariffed tequila. The "Expectations Index" was well below that ominous threshold of 80. So, consumers weren't exactly brimming with optimism.

AI continued to be the shiny object distracting everyone. The CoreWeave IPO hiccup raised some eyebrows about the sustainability of the AI boom, even with $NVDA potentially playing the role of knight in shining armor. Was AI the answer to stagflation, or just another overhyped tech bubble waiting to burst? The jury was still out, and probably still trying to figure out what AI actually is.

Speaking of bubbles, the private credit market was getting some scrutiny too. Despite the rapid growth and attractive expected returns compared to equities, the inherent risks weren't being ignored entirely.

Market performance in March saw the S&P 500 attempting to recover from earlier dips, but volatility was the name of the game. The Magnificent 7 were showing some cracks. Bonds were reacting to inflation data and Fed speak, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields doing their usual dance.

Some random happenings that caught the eye:

• The rise of burrito-backed loans – yes, you read that right. Consumers taking out loans to fuel their DoorDash habits via Klarna. Peak 2025 finance? Maybe.

• ARK Invest apparently lost more money than any other fund manager in the past decade. Ouch. 

• The Berkshire Hathaway meeting was apparently going to cost you a cool $5,680 a night for the Hilton across the street. Start saving those burrito loan proceeds!

Investor attention was highlighted as a crucial driver of how markets react to macroeconomic news. So, all those doomscrolling hours might actually be market research? Doubtful.

Overall, March felt like a continuation of the uncertainty that had been brewing. Tariffs, inflation worries, and the ever-present AI hype kept the markets guessing. Consumer confidence was shaky, and the economic outlook was about as clear as mud after a few too many tariffed tequilas. Nobody really knew what was going on, but that, as always, didn't stop anyone from having a strong opinion. And as Mark Twain wisely said, "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so". 

So, take all of this with a healthy dose of "I don't know" and maybe go watch some baseball. It's probably less confusing than the markets right now - despite the early season controversy over torpedo bats.

Some March Learnings:

• Beware of first-order thinking and understand second-order effects - be careful reaching quick and certain conclusions in a world mired in uncertainty and complexity

• Market narratives drive pricing, but can be fleeting - the line between rational optimism and collective delusion can be blurry

• Question conventional wisdom and “what’s priced in” - what’s thought to be priced in isn’t always understood

• Recognize the importance of long-term perspectives and patience - Zoom out. Your investment horizon is longer than a news cycle. Most of this is just noise—unless, of course, it’s about your tequila budget

Because You Already Forgot January and February

Missed the first two months of the year? Don’t worry, the themes haven't changed: AI savior complex, tariff tantrums, and inflation drama. 

The year kicked off with everyone and their mother trying to figure out if AI was going to save us all or just lead to sentient paperclips. DeepSeek threw a wrench in the GPU-guzzling narrative, making everyone question if $NVDA was the next Pets.com

Trump was back and so were his beloved tariffs. Every other headline was a new tariff threat from champagne to tequila, making happy hour increasingly unhappy. 

The Mag-7 have shown cracks, bonds have been all over the place reacting to inflation data, Fedspeak, tariffs and the overall uncertainty. Gold has hit new record highs - e tu Bitcoin?

The first quarter of 2025: a swirling vortex of AI hype, tariff tantrums, inflation anxieties, and enough market volatility to give you whiplash. Nobody really knew what was going on, but that didn't stop the financial news cycle from spinning wildly. As always, blame Canada.

So what awaits us in April and beyond?

Hold on, let me grab my crystal ball. Obviously eyes are glued to April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’, but the correct answer when asked about the financial future is “I Don’t Know.”  As for advice, what we covered a couple of weeks ago might be the best I can muster.

We start April with the S&P at 5,612, the 2Y treasury yield down at 3.90%  and the 10Y yield at 4.21%. In due time, we’ll see if the April narratives will be different from those of March.

XTODs

Will return tomorrow - not an April Fools.

Daily Economic Update: March 31, 2025

 The ‘93-’01 Boom: When Surpluses and Compact Disc Were a Thing

Friday gave us more stagflation vibes, with UofM inflation expectations hitting their highest since ‘93 at 4.1% and PCE sitting at 2.8%—while growth seems fleeting (just check the Atlanta Fed GDPNow). But as a counterpoint, I’ll just throw it out there: 1993 was a solid year for rap and rock music, and, call me crazy, but the economy from ‘93 to ‘01 wasn’t half bad either.

Let’s take a quick trip back. The U.S. economy in that period? Absolutely cooking. GDP growth averaged around 4% annually, job creation was strong, and by the end of the decade, unemployment had fallen to a near 30-year low of 3.9%. Productivity surged, fueled by the tech boom—back when dot-com wasn’t just a punchline.

Inflation? Tame. The Fed, under Alan Greenspan, mostly kept CPI in check, with inflation averaging just above 2%. Meanwhile, the federal budget actually ran a surplus from 1998 to 2001—yes, a surplus, a concept so foreign today it might as well be a VHS tape. This was helped by a mix of spending restraint and tax hikes under Clinton, plus a flood of capital gains revenue from the stock market euphoria.

Speaking of markets, the S&P 500 went on an absolute tear, gaining over 400% from 1993 to its peak in early 2000. Then, of course, came the dot-com bust, reminding us all that stocks don’t just go up forever.

So yeah, the ‘90s economy had its share of good times—before the hangover of 2001 hit with the recession, tech crash, and all.

The lesson might be something we talked about early in the year, I call it the “trees don’t grow to the sky” narrative, one that deals with cycles and mean reversion.  In the case of the ‘90s economy,  the stability and complacency that resulted from numerous favorable conditions coming together over that period may have sowed the seeds for future problems as investors assumed these conditions would go on indefinitely and given little attention to the underlying imbalances that were building up.

Speaking of Nostalgia: The Fed Dusts Off 'Transitory'

The Fed has been so nostalgic for the word “transitory” that they’ve revived it. We’ve reached peak nostalgia—now ‘transitory’ and ‘tariffs’ are like a toxic couple that just won’t break up.  For example -  Don’t worry the impact of tariffs will be transitory.  

Second-Order Thinking: The Market’s Favorite Trick Play

If I told you that inflation data all pointed to inflation being stronger than expected and asked you to guess the direction of bond yields, my assumption is you would say yields would move higher.  But despite higher inflation expectations and sticky inflation, yields fell. Of course you’ll say something like, but growth concerns and stock market volatility led to a “flight to quality”.

The lesson? Second order effects - we talked about this as the separator of good and bad economist.  We don’t always understand “what’s priced in”, “positioning”, and overall second order effects and beyond. The most poignant example of second order effects that I can recall was during the start of Covid in 2020, when yields on the presumptive safe-haven assets, U.S. treasuries unexpectedly rose during March 2020.  If you focused solely on first-order effects of a global pandemic, the sale of risky assets like equities and the purchase of U.S. Treasuries made perfect sense and indeed it's what happened from February until March 9, 2020.  From there however second-order effects began to dominate. It turned out investors needed to sell Treasuries to raise cash for all kinds of reasons - meeting investor redemptions, meeting margin calls, to factors impacting foreign holders of treasuries. 

I call to mind the Treasury market dynamics of 2020 because of the recent media attention around a paper arguing that the Fed should set up a program to close out hedge funds treasury basis trades in times of market stress.   

More Lessons: Twain, Housel, and the Art of Being Wrong

Perhaps the real lesson is immortalized in the words of Mark Twain: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.“  

We’re tempted to draw quick and certain conclusions from data or market narratives - but as Morgan Housel reminds us, “if you’ve relied on data and logic alone to make sense of the economy, you’d have been confused for a hundred straight years.”

You don’t have to wait 100 years to be confused, I’m sure this week will suffice.

The Week Ahead: Can Liberation Day Be A Holiday Yet?

We enter the week with the S&P 500 index at 5,580.  The 2Y treasury yield at 3.91% and the 10Y at 4.25%.  

Tariffs and Jobs will be the focus.

Today: take a breather and finish month end/ quarter end

Tue: ISM mfg, JOLTs and April Fools Day

Wed: Liberation Day

Thur: Jobless Claims, ISM services

Fri: Jobs Day in ‘merica, Powell speech

XTODs

XTOD: New: Trump privately pushing aides to go bigger on tariffs as April 2 “Liberation Day” nears  President revived idea of flat universal tariff single rate on most imports  Feels 1st term advisers went too small & soft with exemptions  Bannon pitches “Liberation Day” as federal holiday next year

XTOD: Shocking report by @andrewtlevin at @mercatus  showing that growth in Fed salaries massively outpaced other sectors. In my own experience at the New York Fed I affirm that there the organization is massively overstaffed and overpaid.

XTOD: Probably no better formula than “high passion and low status” for an area to go work in and create things  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnOtm__WQAAzrZa?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: Reminder: If you don’t prioritize your life, someone else will.

https://x.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1905947983062904832

https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1905637468746977400

https://x.com/patrick_oshag/status/1906057956988219392

https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1906058792795865343

Daily Economic Update: March 26, 2026

Consumer Confidence: Recession Bells or Just My Tequila Blues?

Consumers are not exactly brimming with confidence - just ask them.  The Conference Board “Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.”  

Turns out people don’t like declining stock prices paired with inflation.  Inflation is so solved that survey respondents increased their 12-month ahead inflation expectations from 5.8% to 6.2% - hold my tariffed tequila.

Tariffs, Inflation and the Demand Puzzle

Survey data always comes with paradoxes. If consumers expect their income, wealth, and prospects to decline, why do they also expect inflation to rise? Tariffs, duh—imports taxes juice prices - right?

But if consumers are tapping out and demand is shrinking, can tariffs really drive inflation the way people expect?  Typically, when consumers feel increased uncertainty around their income and wealth, they tighten their wallets - shifting the aggregate demand curve left. Higher taxes, like tariffs, usually cause the same shift. So if demand is cooling, could supply side constraints still push inflation higher?  That’s the stagflation scenario in a nutshell. 

Two weeks ago, I sniffed it - now it’s a whiff I can’t un-smell. My TRASH ETF’s popping popcorn.

Expectations: Where Psychology Meets My 401k

Expectations sit at the crossroads of psychology and finance.  As author Morgan Housel puts it: “The valuation of every company is simply a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.” Strip away the narrative, and you’re left with cold, hard valuation models like the Gordon Growth Model - where the future is just a set of assumptions out to Judgment Day, just waiting to be discounted.

This is why Warren Buffett is the G.O.A.T. He can simultaneously remind us that "The most that owners in the aggregate can earn between now and Judgment Day is what their business in the aggregate earns.”  and “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” 

What’s Priced In? The Eternal Market Question - Just Ask Mr. Market

The most important question in investing: “What’s priced in?”Markets are a constant tug-of-war between rational optimism and collective delusion—which is exactly why differences in opinion make a market.

The parable of ‘Mr. Market’ is a lesson worth remembering.  None of this thinking is new -  just refer back to our discussions the week of January 21st when we started every day with a Jesse Livermore quote from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.  

Owners vs. Lenders: The Fundamental Trade-Off

The question of what’s priced in, what do investors believe, and what are they willing to risk is fundamental to Howard Marks’ thinking on asset allocation—the decision to own vs. lend.

Owners have no promise of return; lenders have a contractual fixed outcome—assuming, of course, the borrower makes good.

Risk vs. reward. The oldest trade-off in the book.

Final Thoughts: Narratives on Fumes?

Markets, like expectations, are built on narratives. The line between collective delusion and rational optimism is a blurry one—it’s why “differences in opinion make a market.” The key is knowing when the story still holds... and when it’s running on fumes.  

My tequila’s narrative? Tariffed to oblivion—hold on or sell?

The Day Ahead: Durable Goods or Durable Pain

The S&P at 5,776, 2Y at 4.03%, 10Y at 4.33% —stocks crawled up, yields yawned. Durable goods, home prices, 5Y note auction—at this stage data is just a tariff on our sanity.

XTODs

XTOD: The White Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention

XTOD: Following the arrival earlier today of 2 B-2 “Spirit” Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers, with the 509th Bomb Wing from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Communications between the bombers and ground stations in San Fransisco have confirmed that another flight of 2-3 B-2s from Whiteman are currently crossing the Pacific Ocean destined for Diego Garcia. This is seeming like a much larger buildup than would be needed for strikes just against the Houthis in Yemen.

XTOD: Shell CEO discloses some more colour about the company's vast in-house commodity trading business, which includes oil, gas, LNG and others: the unit hasn't had a single loss-making quarter in at least 10 years

XTOD: *AT&T SAID IN EXCLUSIVE TALKS TO BUY LUMEN’S CONSUMER FIBER UNIT (BN)

*AT&T DEAL SAID TO VALUE LUMEN UNIT AT MORE THAN $5.5 BILLION (BN)

AT&T showing the classic telecom playbook: Buy assets from distressed competitors, incorporate them poorly, repeat

XTOD: If you work in PE and one of your portcos came into ur office in NYC today.  They’re at the bar and they hate u and think you’re retarded. Not divulging specifics here because I’m not snitching but this is very real and I am doing my best to not crack up at these blue collar dudes shitting on the finance bros they met with today and how they “don’t understand how the company works”

XTOD (some interesting replies to this one): For folks who left banking, PE or similar finance roles, what was the exact moment you decided to leave?  Would love to hear more stories of people who left behind the golden handcuffs  What caused you to make the jump and what did you pursue instead?

https://x.com/MLBONFAX/status/1904261374265717207

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1904587565123985753

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1904523965453750491

https://x.com/junkbondinvest/status/1904598522453713134

https://x.com/GordonGekko420/status/1904311634815783333

https://x.com/BoringBiz_/status/1904585856255427041