Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: No Free Lunches

 

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) offers a seductive idea: sovereign governments that issue their own currency cannot run out of money. Deficits don’t matter—until inflation does.

This is not entirely wrong. It is dangerously incomplete.

The Missing Constraint

MMT focuses on financial constraints while downplaying real constraints. Governments can print currency, but they cannot print labor, energy, or productive capacity. When spending outpaces those resources, inflation is the balancing mechanism.

You don’t get something for nothing. You get redistribution—usually from savers to debtors.

Fiscal Dominance

As deficits grow, fiscal policy begins to dominate monetary policy. Central banks lose freedom. Inflation becomes politically inconvenient, but austerity becomes impossible.

This is the environment investors must navigate.

The Lesson

You cannot print wealth—only claims on it. When claims grow faster than goods, currencies weaken. Investors should pay attention not just to central banks, but to legislatures.

XTOD

“Deficits are like putting a rock in a garden hose. The water (inflation) has to go somewhere eventually.”

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Elephant in the Room – Grappling with Fiscal Realities

Our economic updates consistently bring into sharp focus an uncomfortable truth: the long-term implications of fiscal policy and the looming shadow of government debt. These aren't abstract concepts; they are fundamental drivers shaping our economic future.

Concerns about "high debt and deficits are here to stay and could lead to financial repression and some difficult 'medicine'". The sheer scale of government borrowing, with the U.S. facing nearly $2 trillion annual deficits, "added to upwards pressure on yields". This raises the specter that "if there is not radical reduction of government expenditures, then... America will become de facto bankrupt," as interest on debt threatens to consume all tax revenue. Moreover, unconventional tactics, such as the Treasury's current "issuance policies," are seen by some as providing "similar economic stimulus as a 1% cut in the Fed Funds rate, usurping core functions of monetary policy and blocking the Fed's efforts to restrain inflation and growth".

The debate over these fiscal realities is robust. While some, like proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), argue that "government spending is one of only two ways to get economic growth," others contend that excessive "government spending explodes... then big inflation can come from this because the government becomes the primary (reckless) spender". Jamie Dimon points to deficits, infrastructure, and military expenses as drivers of persistent inflation. The market, in its own language, is signaling that governments "will need financial repression," potentially leading to "capital controls". Even Warren Buffett has warned that "Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails," advising politicians that they "need you to maintain a stable currency and that result requires both wisdom and vigilance on your part".

History offers poignant lessons. Alexander Hamilton argued that "the creation of debt should always be accompanied with the means of extinguishment," considering this "the true secret for rendering public credit immortal". While individuals cannot dictate national policy, wisdom lies in understanding these dynamics and acting with personal prudence. This means "managing personal and business affairs with greater prudence when others do not," recognizing that "no priority ever goes unfunded. If the votes are there, the money is there".

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Hard Truth of Fiscal Discipline – Or, Why We Keep Kicking the Can

Welcome back to Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites, your daily reminder to cut through the noise and focus on what truly matters. Today, we're diving into a topic that feels perennially relevant, yet consistently misunderstood: fiscal discipline. While the market gyrates and pundits clamor, the wisdom of the past, and a dash of intellectual humility, might just offer the clearest path forward.

The Elephant in the Room: Mounting Debt and Deficits

It seems that every day brings fresh warnings about the U.S. fiscal situation. From Moody's putting U.S. sovereign debt on negative watch to calls about a "Minsky moment" from a fiscal situation deemed "impossible," the chatter is omnipresent. There's a persistent concern among investors about rising U.S. debt levels. Even Fed Chair Powell has acknowledged the national debt as unsustainable. We're talking trillions added to the debt, often with hundreds of billions more if expiring provisions are extended. It appears that policymakers sometimes act as if the answer to all problems is simply more government spending, as if there's no such thing as an uncovered deficit.

Historically, Alexander Hamilton warned Congress in 1790 that "the creation of public debt should always be accompanied with the means of extinguishment" as "the true secret for rendering public credit immortal". For the first 175 years of the nation, the U.S. largely adhered to this "Hamilton Norm," issuing large quantities of public debt only during emergencies. One can certainly wonder if we've violated that norm, and if it matters.

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (and Why it Matters)

While Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) might "diss" the idea of bond vigilantes and suggest governments can finance all spending without borrowing or taxes, other compelling theories offer a starkly different view. John Cochrane, a leading proponent of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), suggests that if fiscal policy is undisciplined, the Fed's actions alone may not lower inflation. In fact, if the Fed raises interest rates, it raises interest costs on the debt, and if taxes don't rise or spending doesn't fall to pay those costs, there's "no reduction in inflation". He calls this "unpleasant interest rate arithmetic".

The FTPL posits that inflation occurs if debt exceeds faith in a country's long-run ability and will to repay it. This theory suggests that the Central Bank can only "move inflation around over time," and ultimately doesn't have full control if fiscal policy isn't consistent with price stability. It highlights the "real danger" that comes from "encouraging or inadvertently tolerating rising inflation and its close cousin of extreme speculation and risk taking".

The Fed's Dilemma: Independence vs. Politics

The Fed may believe a certain policy is correct but worry it will appear politically motivated. Peter Stella's definition of central bank independence is "the ability to raise interest rates when the Treasury doesn't want you to," which is almost always the case due to the cost of debt. Powell has stated the Fed "do not consider politics in our decisions. We never do. And we never will". However, the macroeconomic models themselves implicitly include some budget constraints and fiscal-monetary coordination. If fiscal policy is the major driver of inflation, how is the Fed supposed to fulfill its price stability mandate?

What's the Wise Play? Beyond the Headlines.

In a world loud with information, where everyone has a "take," the key is often to mute the unnecessary and discern what truly matters. As the wisdom from the blog frequently emphasizes, "Clarity comes from subtraction, not addition. Remove the noise, the distractions, and the unnecessary. What truly matters will emerge".

Here's some wisdom to help you navigate the fiscal noise:

• Embrace Intellectual Humility: Recognize that forecasting the future is a "fool's errand," and even "experts" are often wrong. As Morgan Housel wisely noted, "Real optimists don't believe that everything will be great...Optimism is a belief that the odds of a good outcome are in your favor over time, even when there will be setbacks along the way".

• Focus on What You Can Control: Your behavior matters more than any forecast. Instead of reacting to every headline, cultivate discipline and a robust process. As Charlie Munger advised, "It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can't stand to wait".

• Prioritize a Margin of Safety: Benjamin Graham's concept of a "margin of safety" is about "rendering unnecessary an accurate forecast of the future". This means building flexibility, avoiding excessive leverage, and having a buffer to withstand unexpected events. "Know your goals, mitigate unwanted risk, prepare and position the best you can for when the unknown or unexpected occurs, because life is uncertain, but remember without risk there is no return".

• Learn from History, But Don't Over-predict: "History doesn't repeat, but human nature does". Studying past financial disasters can impart "invaluable lessons on what to do and what not to do at far lower cost than making the mistakes oneself". However, be wary of thinking "this time is different".

• Question the "Why": Understand the motivations and incentives of those providing information. As Charlie Munger said, "I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do".

Ultimately, fiscal discipline—or the lack thereof—has profound consequences. While you can't control government policy, you can control your own approach to navigating an uncertain world. Remember, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function". This applies not just to compounding wealth, but also to compounding problems.

Daily Economic Update: June 6, 2025

Broken Bromance

Trump and Xi talk, but Trump and Musk spar.  I don’t know which headline matters more for markets, but shares of Tesla didn’t like the news ending the day down 14%.

As economist Brad DeLong posited, “Musk thought he had a deal—he backs Trump all the way, and in return Trump would provide him with EV subsidies, tariff carve-outs, and control of the NASA budget. Musk was wrong. And so we get to watch what happens next…”

With the Trump and Musk spat centered on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”, the fiscal talk isn’t going away.

Repressing Emotions

Yesterday I talked about monetary rules as a pre-commitment policy and in the past I’ve talked about the possibility of financial repression.  

In a substack post, economist Josh Hendrickson married these two ideas (monetary policy pre-commitment and financial repression).  In his post Hendrickson expresses a growing recognition that the U.S. government lacks a commitment to fiscal discipline and as a result he sees inflation or financial repression as the likely answers to the current fiscal problems. So where does that dovetail with Central Banking?  Well, Hendrickson provides a history lesson on the origins of the Bank of England. 

Hendrickson’s lesson - central banks that own or require the financial system to hold more government debt than it otherwise would effectively create a poison pill that in essence aligns private interest with that of the government because a default would significantly disrupt the financial system (and likely topple the government).   Said more plainly, if you distribute the risk of default on government debt to the banking system you raise the stakes of a default, because default permanently impairs economic activity via the banking channel. “The cost of purchasing this commitment is that there will be less private investment in the economy than there would be otherwise.”

And if you thought central banks were independent, Hendrickson would agree and as a result of that Federal Reserve independence, he doesn’t believe that the Fed would simply not respond to an attempt to inflate our way out of the debt problem.  And that’s where Financial Repression comes in.

As independent as the Federal Reserve is, Hendrickson posits that “Congress could always change the statute to eliminate the Federal Reserve’s authority to pay interest on reserves and declare that the Federal Reserve can determine reserve requirements above some explicit, statutory amount.” as means of forcing banks to hold more Treasuries while allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its large balance sheet, effectively financed at zero from banks.

Hendrickson’s overall warning, “It is naive to think that the U.S. will not attempt to use this tool in the event that politicians perceive a looming debt crisis. And, unlike the other options, the connection between the actions of the government and the costs are largely hidden from the public….Or maybe AI will save us.”

Rolling In The Mud

Speaking of Central Banks that aren’t immune to having to deal with debt crises, we had the ECB lower interest rates to 2%.  Remember when the focus was on PIGS debt back in 2008?  This is what we’ve come to….and Trump would definitely be happy with 2% treasury yields…if only there were a way to make that happen - hello financial repression.

At least we’ve got jobs….right? 
I guess we’ll find out this morning, though jobless claims seemed to be going in the wrong direction.

Literary Therapy for the Disoriented Investor

You’ve got Kyla Scanlon out there on X saying, "In order to understand the present moment you must read the screwtape letters this is not a joke”, while also reminding us to read Rilke (if you’ve never read Letters To A Young Poet, you’re missing out).   

And you’ve got author Luke Burgis out there on X saying to understand the current environment you need to understand mimetic rivalry, how it erodes social structures, and how our often preferred solution, the “scapegoat mechanism”, creates just an illusion of order.   Ask your favorite AI to interpret the meaning of this X post from Luke, “It's time for everyone to read, or re-read, I SEE SATAN FALL LIKE LIGHTNING—the most important book so far of our century. 

Published in French as "Je vois Satan tomber comme l'éclair" in 1999, and in English as the above on January 1, 2001. It was the perfect book-end to the turn of the millennium, and a dire warning.  Satan continues to cast out Satan.”

Until next time.

XTOD’s

XTOD: Who gets custody of Joe Rogan?

XTOD: Time to drop the really big bomb:  @realDonaldTrump  is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.  Have a nice day, DJT!

XTOD: Elon’s stance is principled.  Trump’s stance is practical.  Tech needs Republicans for the present.  Republicans need Tech for the future. Drop the tax cuts, cut some pork, get the bill through.

XTOD: The problem w/MMT charlatans is that they naively take a static equality (assets = liabilities), even a tautology, & forget it is reached via a stochastic process.  It is equivalent to saying: there are necessarily always equal numbers of buyers and sellers therefore let's forget about price fluctuations in the financial markets.  Aside from resource allocation, dynamically, you  have supply & demand for debt, w/the price of debt varying as a function of demand, with consequences.

XTOD: One of the best hacks in the investment field is learning to be happy doing nothing.

- The Joys of Compounding.

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Daily Economic Update: June 4, 2025

Yeah, we’ve got ‘em

Jobs that is, 7.4 million job openings. The internals were pretty steady.  Who has the upper hand? It’s a bit of “it depends”. If you work in healthcare, great, in other industries the story is more mixed.

But at least a few things are going nuclear.

Radioactive Facebook?

When I think of social media companies and the term “radioactive”, I tend to associate them in a pejorative way, one in which both can cause harm.  But nowadays when social media is going radioactive, it literally means they are buying nuclear power, specifically to power AI that sits inside data centers.  Yesterday, Meta announced they’ve entered into a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy’s Clinton nuclear facility in Illinois. 

20 years seems like forever in the AI timeline, but things take time. Like growing the Federal debt level.

Like Radioactive Decay, There Are Exponents

Speaking of things that seem exponential, Ray Dalio promotion and his fears of the U.S. decline.  Yesterday, Ray promoted his new book, “How Countries Go Broke” with a LinkedIn post.

In the post, Dalio reminds us that no matter how you cut it, even when you can print and tax, credit cycle dynamics are the same as Hyman Minsky theorized and we discussed back in January.  

Dalio uses the human circulatory system as his analogy. Deficits are like plague, the deficits drive the supply of debt, the amount of which can overwhelm demand and act as plague breaking off, which ultimately causes a heart attack. Central banks’ can print to try to alleviate the blockage, but it distorts the normal flow of the system and doesn’t solve the problem. For Dalio the only solution is austerity and the accompanying lower rates.

Both Dalio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both share a solution that is focused on 3% interest rates, reducing the budget deficit to 3% of GDP.

But What If You Created The Circulatory System In The First Place?

That’s likely what MMT proponents would retort to Ray’s analogy, after all, it’s your system, your currency, only you can cause the heart attack.  The debt Dalio’s worried about, that’s not plague, it’s actually the blood, if you don’t create the money, the system stops. And interest service on debt, that’s nothing more than a policy choice.  The real constraint isn’t the debt or the interest costs, it’s inflation.  Unless you have inflation, you have fiscal space and the MMT crowd would say you should use it.

And Speaking Of Inflation

Fed Governor Lisa Cook didn’t sound overly convinced that inflation won’t remain a problem in light of trade policies and other factors.

Bridging Common Ground

What if both Dalio and the MMT crowd are right?  What if you just need a way to connect them.  Perhaps there’s where the concept of Fiscal R-Star comes into play.  Remember, this concept is the equivalent of the neutral rate of interest for monetary policy, it’s the interest rate where fiscal policy is neutral.  In essence it’s the idea that deficits can be destabilizing, but only when they exceed the economy’s ability to absorb them without excessive inflation or crowding out.

Just Say What’s On Your Mind: “It’s A Disgusting Abomination”

One Big Beautiful turd?  Maybe, at least if you’re Elon. He’s certainly not ascribing to MMT - he tends to be a fiscal theory of the price level guy.  In a sense, good for Musk for calling out the pork in this bill, as someone who at least reportedly cares about government waste, he at least needs to be consistent.

But That’s A Problem For Another Day

Until the fiscal problem is our fiscal problem, it doesn’t seem to be a problem (for now). The S&P rose to 5,970 led by AI chip stocks and optimism that falls into the TACO trade narratives.

The 2Y treasury yield moved up to 3.96% and the 10Y was at 4.47%, both flirting with their somewhat key levels.

We’ll see what ISM Services and the Bank of Canada has in store today. 

Until then you can debate fiscal narratives.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Bitcoin’s whole story is a staged illusion, scripted by insiders to convince you governments and institutions are “all in” — and that this market is booming on real demand.  

This is the LARGEST bubble in human history, set to go down as the largest financial scandal ever.  Ask yourself: If Bitcoin is so decentralized and powerful…Why do the same few entities control the narrative, the wallets, and the laws?  It's all smoke and mirrors. Here’s proof. 🧵

XTOD: "Diplomacy turns out to be quite different from reality TV and real estate. The best diplomacy is conducted secretly, not on live TV. And when a national security strategy goes awry, bankruptcy is not an option. There is no Chapter 11 for a failed foreign policy."

XTOD: hot ai summer lfg…lots of great releases coming!

XTOD: In November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people x.com/matt_vanswol/s…

XTOD: Learn to ask, “If this is the only thing I accomplish today, will I be satisfied with my day?” 

Don’t ever arrive at the office or in front of your computer without a clear list of priorities. You’ll just read unassociated e-mail and scramble your brain for the day.    Compile your to-do list for tomorrow no later than this evening. I don’t recommend using digital to-do lists, because it is possible to add an infinite number of items. I use a standard piece of paper folded in half three times, which fits perfectly in the pocket and limits you to noting only a few items.   There should never be more than two mission-critical items to complete each day. Never. It just isn’t necessary if they’re actually high-impact.   If you are stuck trying to decide between multiple items that all seem crucial, as happens to all of us, look at each in turn and ask yourself, If this is the only thing I accomplish today, will I be satisfied with my day?  To counter the seemingly urgent, ask yourself: What will happen if I don’t do this, and is it worth putting off the important to do it?

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Daily Economic Update: May 27, 2025

Ursula Gets A Reprieve From The Orange Mermaid

On Friday, Trump declared that tariff negotiations with the EU were going nowhere and he was slapping them with 50% tariffs effective June 1.  While Wikipedia describes Ursula (the villain in the Little Mermaid) as “a bargainer of the worst kind”, after a “very nice call” with her over the weekend, Trump decided to delay the 50% tariff threat until July 9th.  Your guess is as good as mine as to whether a deal will be reached by July 9th, but it’s not lost on anyone that Trump can largely act unilaterally in negotiating trade matters, while the EU will have to get backing from a majority of member states before they can agree to a deal.  

The Euro traded up to 1.14 against the dollar following the news of the delay and stock futures were excited.

With One Villain Getting A Reprieve (for now), The Other, Not So Lucky (yet?)

Unfortunately Apple is looking like the poisoned fruit in this trade war fairy tale (Snow White or Orange Trump?).  I mean look we all know that Apple was a notorious user of the so-called “double irish” scheme to lower taxes, but I’m pretty sure they’re still an American company, unfortunately not one that makes their devices entirely in the U.S.  As a result, they’ve been labeled poison as Trump threatens tariffs of at least 25% on iPhones not built in the U.S. 

Maybe Buffett knew what was coming when he started selling Apple even before Trump took office?  

I’m no tech stock analyst but for long-term Apple investors the tariff news will probably be a sideshow to whether or not the company is a winner in the longer term AI narrative.

Speaking Of AI

Everyone else in finance is using AI for their blogs, research and podcast, so I thought I’d ask AI what the key questions you should be asking as to whether or not a piece of financial media (of any kind) adds value, here are some key questions to consider:

1. Does it improve your understanding of how financial markets work—not just what is happening, but why it matters?

2. Does it distinguish between signal and noise, helping you filter out hype, sensationalism, or herd thinking?

3. Does it cite sources, use data responsibly, and acknowledge uncertainty rather than pretend to predict the future?

4. Does it challenge your thinking or offer perspective you wouldn’t easily find elsewhere?

5. Does it help you make better long-term decisions—or just tempt you to trade on headlines?

From there I loaded the 2025 post from this blog into Google’s Notebook LM and had it answer these questions.  Based on the responses I’d say this blog is doing a pretty good job at adding values. Don’t believe me, believe the AI (with some slight paraphrasing and condensing).

• While the blog covers market activity, it goes beyond mere reporting to discussing underlying ideas. For example it has touched on theories like MMT, R-Star, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and concepts of cycles (business, credit, etc.) and valuation topics like CAPE.

• The blog refers to much of the daily economic news and data as “noise” and provides strategies for dealing with it, such as focusing on timeless wisdom. The selection of XTODs often provides perspectives that challenge common narratives or focus on non-market specific ideas.

• While the blog doesn’t use formal citations it names economists, investors and authors and provides links to external articles, reports, and X-posts.

• The blog challenges thinking and seeks to be an intellectually humble source offering timely, diverse perspectives. This year we’ve covered perspectives ranging from the recent references to The Screwtape letters, to concepts like “enshittification” to examining geo-economics and to management ideas and even the concept of “amistics”. We even threw in references to Vatican encyclicals.  The mix of cultural, literary and philosophical references often creates analogies and juxtapositions that are insightful and original.

• The blog is all about the long-term perspective, advocating for patience rather than trading on headlines or short-term noise. It promotes focusing on timeless principles from the likes of Buffett and Munger about ignoring daily market fluctuations and discusses the importance of distinguishing investment from speculation. It encourages reflection, not reaction.

And for the overall assessment, here’s ChatGPT (I love it when AI blows smoke up your ass):

The Edward Quince blog absolutely adds value. It’s insightful, honest, funny, humble, and weirdly educational in all the right ways. It doesn’t tell you what to buy—but it might help you become the kind of person who can decide that for themselves.

Trade Talks Or Data On the Week Ahead

For the week ahead the focus in data will be on Friday’s PCE’s readings.

Today (Tue): Durable Goods, Home Prices, 2Y Auction, Fedspeak
Wed: FOMC Minutes, 5Y Auction

Thur: Q1 GDP (2nd), Jobless Claims, Home Sales, 7Y Auction

Fri: PCE

Let’s see if the FOMC minutes reveal anything other than what we already suspect: they’re just as confused as we are.

XTOD’s:

XTOD: Nothing is real anymore.Veo 3 is completely out of control...

10 crazy examples:  1. This is Plastic…

XTOD: Drawdown Duration and Recoveries By Max Drawdown

As expected, there is a close relationship between the magnitude of the maximum drawdown and how long it takes a stock price to go from peak to trough. Drawdowns of 95-100 percent take 6.7 years, on average, while those of 0-50 percent take only 1 year. For the stocks that get back to par, the further they fall the longer it takes to get back to the prior peak: 8.0 years, on average, for the 95-100 percent cohort versus just 1.5 years for the 0-50 percent cohort. 

The paper calls out a fascinating fact: A stock that peaks at $100 and draws down 97.5 percent (mid-range of the 95-100 percent bin) would go to $2.50. A bounce to 16 percent of par would be 6.4 times the low ($16 ÷ $2.50 = 6.4).  The issue? The unrealistic assumption is the ability to buy at the bottom.

XTOD: Author and investor @morganhousel  explains that real wealth is measured in autonomy, not accumulation.   "I want to wake up every morning and say I can do whatever the hell I want today."  "There's a big difference between your boss telling you to do it and doing it on your own terms."   "Every dollar that you don't spend is money that you are actually spending on independence."    "Maximizing for independence and autonomy and doing it on your own terms on your own calendar is absolutely vital in anything you're doing."

XTOD: Wall Street does not get this. They continually dismiss the threat of rising prices, focusing instead on weakening growth and potential rising unemployment, and they conclude/demand that the Fed must cut rates.  This is the point I made on BBTV yesterday.

XTOD: Rising 10-30 year yields  without changed Fed expectations tells you this is about deficits and eroding reserve status of $. The term premium (the statistical junkyard for stuff we can't explain) has shot up to 90 bp, from negative. My column: https://wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-market-yields-government-borrowing-4a78af80

XTOD: You can see something 10,000 times on your phone, but never understand it until you see it in person for the first time.  That’s the lesson from the park bench scene in Good Will Hunting. Matt Damon is the arrogant, book-smart intellectual who’s seen little but read everything. Robin Williams is the wise professor who rolls his eyes at Damon’s hubris. The stuff of life can only be fully absorbed through direct experience, he says.  This is one reason why school falls short. It conflates regurgitation for understanding.  Shakespeare’s plays have been reduced to bite-sized cramming on SparkNotes and exam questions the following day. Or, take entrepreneurship, where certain kinds of wisdom can only be gained in the trenches of a sales call or when you have to fire the executive you swore was going to save your company. 

Travel, too. Something about the Golden Gate Bridge can only be understood when you feel the Pacific Ocean wind and shiver under a blanket of fog. Something about the life of Moses can only be understood when you stand atop Mount Nebo (where he died) and look down at the Promised Land of Israel. Something about Italian food can only be understood when you slurp “siero” in a Parmesan cheese factory and meet the 4th-generation shop owner. 

Pixels on a screen aren’t enough. Go out and Do the Thing because certain kinds of knowledge can only be gained through tactile, first-hand experience.

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