Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Billboards

 

Jesse Livermore understood this a century ago: price movement is advertising.

A rising stock markets itself. A falling one repels capital regardless of fundamentals.

Momentum isn’t magic. It’s human psychology with leverage.

The Model: Price ≠ Truth

Markets discover prices, not values. In the short run, emotion dominates. In the long run, cash flows settle the argument.

Portfolio Orientation

Separate:

• Business risk (what the company does)
  
  

• Market risk (what people feel about it today)
  
  

Most investors fail not because they’re wrong about the business—but because they react to the billboard.

XTOD

“The market is never wrong—opinions often are.”
(But the tape can still lie.)