(Expanded from April 9, 2025)
"We think they are days from failure. They think it is a temporary problem. This disconnect is dangerous."
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Utter Boredom? Or Maybe Just a Break from the Chaos? Sometimes the market feels like a finely choreographed dance, a bewildering beat remixi...
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The financial industry is a relentless marketing machine built to sell the "new, new thing." Whether it is dot-coms in 1999, compl...
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With the Nasdaq at all-time highs, the week ahead sets up as follows with PCE on Friday as the highlight. Tue: Fedspeak, home price index, c...
Edward Quince’s Wisdom Bites: The Discount Rate of Tomorrow
We often treat "savings" as a mere accounting function—a number sitting idly in a brokerage account. But savings are far more prof...
what does Edward Quince think of RPOs and circularity in the AI/highly levered data center sector?
ReplyDeleteRPO's were innovative in the NFL a few years ago, less so now, but still can work well with the right personnel grouping....sorry, you wanted Remaining Performance Obligations...and in the long-run isn't the entire economy a circular flow model (at least accounting wise)? Edward is smart enough (barely) not to venture outside his circle of competence, which does not include the intracies of data center deals...but he thinks the question behind the question boils down to a question of whether or not the AI/data center ecosystem is generating claims on future income faster than it's ability to generate that income...it's timing and whether the spend is "productive"...and who absorbs losses if it all fails to deliver?
ReplyDeleteEdward goes back to thinking about General Equilibrium models, which assumptions fail and why, opens up something by Keynes, who stabilizes the broken circle? Turns to Fisher for debt deflation, wonders what Minsky would think, does the circle just depend on asset prices and not income anymore? There's no precision in any of this, just uncertainty...where's the humility?