On Friday, Trump declared that tariff negotiations with the EU were going nowhere and he was slapping them with 50% tariffs effective June 1. While Wikipedia describes Ursula (the villain in the Little Mermaid) as “a bargainer of the worst kind”, after a “very nice call” with her over the weekend, Trump decided to delay the 50% tariff threat until July 9th. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether a deal will be reached by July 9th, but it’s not lost on anyone that Trump can largely act unilaterally in negotiating trade matters, while the EU will have to get backing from a majority of member states before they can agree to a deal.
The Euro traded up to 1.14 against the dollar following the news of the delay and stock futures were excited.
With One Villain Getting A Reprieve (for now), The Other, Not So Lucky (yet?)
Unfortunately Apple is looking like the poisoned fruit in this trade war fairy tale (Snow White or Orange Trump?). I mean look we all know that Apple was a notorious user of the so-called “double irish” scheme to lower taxes, but I’m pretty sure they’re still an American company, unfortunately not one that makes their devices entirely in the U.S. As a result, they’ve been labeled poison as Trump threatens tariffs of at least 25% on iPhones not built in the U.S.
Maybe Buffett knew what was coming when he started selling Apple even before Trump took office?
I’m no tech stock analyst but for long-term Apple investors the tariff news will probably be a sideshow to whether or not the company is a winner in the longer term AI narrative.
Speaking Of AI
Everyone else in finance is using AI for their blogs, research and podcast, so I thought I’d ask AI what the key questions you should be asking as to whether or not a piece of financial media (of any kind) adds value, here are some key questions to consider:
Does it improve your understanding of how financial markets work—not just what is happening, but why it matters?
Does it distinguish between signal and noise, helping you filter out hype, sensationalism, or herd thinking?
Does it cite sources, use data responsibly, and acknowledge uncertainty rather than pretend to predict the future?
Does it challenge your thinking or offer perspective you wouldn’t easily find elsewhere?
Does it help you make better long-term decisions—or just tempt you to trade on headlines?
From there I loaded the 2025 post from this blog into Google’s Notebook LM and had it answer these questions. Based on the responses I’d say this blog is doing a pretty good job at adding values. Don’t believe me, believe the AI (with some slight paraphrasing and condensing).
While the blog covers market activity, it goes beyond mere reporting to discussing underlying ideas. For example it has touched on theories like MMT, R-Star, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and concepts of cycles (business, credit, etc.) and valuation topics like CAPE.
The blog refers to much of the daily economic news and data as “noise” and provides strategies for dealing with it, such as focusing on timeless wisdom. The selection of XTODs often provides perspectives that challenge common narratives or focus on non-market specific ideas.
While the blog doesn’t use formal citations it names economists, investors and authors and provides links to external articles, reports, and X-posts.
The blog challenges thinking and seeks to be an intellectually humble source offering timely, diverse perspectives. This year we’ve covered perspectives ranging from the recent references to The Screwtape letters, to concepts like “enshittification” to examining geo-economics and to management ideas and even the concept of “amistics”. We even threw in references to Vatican encyclicals. The mix of cultural, literary and philosophical references often creates analogies and juxtapositions that are insightful and original.
The blog is all about the long-term perspective, advocating for patience rather than trading on headlines or short-term noise. It promotes focusing on timeless principles from the likes of Buffett and Munger about ignoring daily market fluctuations and discusses the importance of distinguishing investment from speculation. It encourages reflection, not reaction.
And for the overall assessment, here’s ChatGPT (I love it when AI blows smoke up your ass):
The Edward Quince blog absolutely adds value. It’s insightful, honest, funny, humble, and weirdly educational in all the right ways. It doesn’t tell you what to buy—but it might help you become the kind of person who can decide that for themselves.
Trade Talks Or Data On the Week Ahead
For the week ahead the focus in data will be on Friday’s PCE’s readings.
Today (Tue): Durable Goods, Home Prices, 2Y Auction, Fedspeak
Wed: FOMC Minutes, 5Y Auction
Thur: Q1 GDP (2nd), Jobless Claims, Home Sales, 7Y Auction
Fri: PCE
Let’s see if the FOMC minutes reveal anything other than what we already suspect: they’re just as confused as we are.
XTOD’s:
XTOD: Nothing is real anymore.Veo 3 is completely out of control...
10 crazy examples: 1. This is Plastic…
XTOD: Drawdown Duration and Recoveries By Max Drawdown
As expected, there is a close relationship between the magnitude of the maximum drawdown and how long it takes a stock price to go from peak to trough. Drawdowns of 95-100 percent take 6.7 years, on average, while those of 0-50 percent take only 1 year. For the stocks that get back to par, the further they fall the longer it takes to get back to the prior peak: 8.0 years, on average, for the 95-100 percent cohort versus just 1.5 years for the 0-50 percent cohort.
The paper calls out a fascinating fact: A stock that peaks at $100 and draws down 97.5 percent (mid-range of the 95-100 percent bin) would go to $2.50. A bounce to 16 percent of par would be 6.4 times the low ($16 ÷ $2.50 = 6.4). The issue? The unrealistic assumption is the ability to buy at the bottom.
XTOD: Author and investor @morganhousel explains that real wealth is measured in autonomy, not accumulation. "I want to wake up every morning and say I can do whatever the hell I want today." "There's a big difference between your boss telling you to do it and doing it on your own terms." "Every dollar that you don't spend is money that you are actually spending on independence." "Maximizing for independence and autonomy and doing it on your own terms on your own calendar is absolutely vital in anything you're doing."
XTOD: Wall Street does not get this. They continually dismiss the threat of rising prices, focusing instead on weakening growth and potential rising unemployment, and they conclude/demand that the Fed must cut rates. This is the point I made on BBTV yesterday.
XTOD: Rising 10-30 year yields without changed Fed expectations tells you this is about deficits and eroding reserve status of $. The term premium (the statistical junkyard for stuff we can't explain) has shot up to 90 bp, from negative. My column: https://wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-market-yields-government-borrowing-4a78af80
XTOD: You can see something 10,000 times on your phone, but never understand it until you see it in person for the first time. That’s the lesson from the park bench scene in Good Will Hunting. Matt Damon is the arrogant, book-smart intellectual who’s seen little but read everything. Robin Williams is the wise professor who rolls his eyes at Damon’s hubris. The stuff of life can only be fully absorbed through direct experience, he says. This is one reason why school falls short. It conflates regurgitation for understanding. Shakespeare’s plays have been reduced to bite-sized cramming on SparkNotes and exam questions the following day. Or, take entrepreneurship, where certain kinds of wisdom can only be gained in the trenches of a sales call or when you have to fire the executive you swore was going to save your company.
Travel, too. Something about the Golden Gate Bridge can only be understood when you feel the Pacific Ocean wind and shiver under a blanket of fog. Something about the life of Moses can only be understood when you stand atop Mount Nebo (where he died) and look down at the Promised Land of Israel. Something about Italian food can only be understood when you slurp “siero” in a Parmesan cheese factory and meet the 4th-generation shop owner.
Pixels on a screen aren’t enough. Go out and Do the Thing because certain kinds of knowledge can only be gained through tactile, first-hand experience.
https://x.com/AngryTomtweets/status/1926806888726864366
https://x.com/Restructuring__/status/1926680072418689279
https://x.com/HLPClips/status/1926685238404481519
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1926406247143620712
https://x.com/greg_ip/status/1925967852768538887
https://x.com/david_perell/status/1926406524881994038
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