A tough day for stocks as megacap tech stocks lead loses again, but yesterday saw selling across sectors including small-caps. How much is "profit taking", how much is [insert some narrative here]. The economic data was mixed, with jobless claims rising more than expected, but some noise due to the Hurricane Beryl. The Philly Fed was better than expected and showed the prices paid component cooling. As expected the ECB was on hold and really not noteworthy (at least to me). Other than that everyone is subscribed to Netflix.
Price action saw stocks down, dollar up and yields rising. The 2Y is 4.47% and the 10Y is 4.20%. Refer to Howard Marks peice yesterday as to why the correct answer to why things move the way they move in financial markets is "I don't know." And that answer is even more true when you mix in politics and potential economic policies domestically and globally.
It's a summer Friday with no data of importance, but analysis of Trump's speech and speculation around Biden dropping out will likely dominate the news flow.
XTOD: Here's my current portfolio:
35% Stegosaurus
30% Velociraptor
15% T Rex
5% That sunflower-looking dinosaur that kills Newman in Jurassic Park
15% Bitcoin
Am I diversified? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSxklP3XUAAE7U6?format=png&name=small
XTOD: Mortgage delinquency in the Black Knight series surges 13% M-O-M marking the largest M-O-M increase since April of 2020
What does this say about the consumer?
XTOD: After a high dose of psilocybin, the brain desynchronizes at a massive scale, causing loss of our sense of self, time, and space. This may drive the burst of plasticity caused by psychedelics. The next day, brain activity has largely returned to normal, but an echo remains – a reset of circuits critical to the sense of self. Our study is out today in @Nature
https://nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07624-5
XTOD: "Envy is inversely correlated with self-examination. The less you know yourself, the more you look to others to get an idea of your worth."
XTOD: Some projects benefit from early action. If you're writing a book, it's easy to spend a lot of time brainstorming titles and dreaming up an outline, but it's better to simply write. The book discovers itself as you go. Yes, you'll need to go back and organize things, but this is easier to do once you have material. The key is to act first and then organize your thinking.
Other projects benefit from early planning. The best way to build a skyscraper is to plan carefully. If you start placing steel beams on day one, you're guaranteed to run into problems. It is harder to make changes once you've begun. You'll need to tear it down and start over again. The key is to organize your thinking and then act.
Do you need early action or early planning?
https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1813935464786853986
https://x.com/m3_melody/status/1813918233453531293
https://x.com/realJoshSiegel/status/1813647390106427458
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1813968040213787027
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1814011868890976457
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