Daily Economic Update: August 29, 2023

U.S. yields start the day with yields relatively unchanged following the double auctions yesterday which seemed relatively clean.  The 2Y is trading 5.01% and the 10Y ~4.20% (off the highs of about a week ago of around 4.35%) . I guess we're all going to be buying electric cars from Vietnam...and I thought VinFast might be tied to vehicles made for Vin Diesel in Fast and Furious.  China remains in focus, wake me up when they do something big in terms of stimulus.  The Jackson Hole papers referenced yesterday continue to garner some discussion, especially the Eichengreen paper on the era of high government debt.  I haven't listened to the podcast yet but Odd Lots has covered the paper.

 Today's JOLTS data will be the first labor market indicator that will be scrutinized this week and I'm sure there will be some post somewhere about the Beveridge Curve.

XTOD: Here is the J-Hole paper that concluded the world is f**cked (which was of course obvious to anyone who is not a career economist since 2009)

XTOD: I wonder why there is no session at Jackson Hole on "Lessons from the fastest economic recovery ever" or on "How to restore full employment faster after a recession"

XTOD: U.S. consumers in recent weeks have seen gasoline prices tick up to their highest levels so far this year, leaving many with an unwelcome sense of déjà vu

XTOD: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696262024626651461.html Share this if you think it's interesting. 

XTOD: The "urban doom loop" has caught on as a possible threat to cities nationwide -- especially in midsize cities that may be more vulnerable to an economic spiral  My look at what's behind the risk, and what it could look like from Minneapolis to Memphis:  Much of the focus has gone to hubs like New York and San Francisco. But many economists and analysts are more concerned about smaller cities with less ability to offset the economic blow if companies nix large leases or sale prices of downtown buildings crater.  Still, the loop isn't a given. Many cities are leaning on state and local stimulus aid. A large share of the outstanding business and mortgage loans aren't due for a few more years. And wonky tax rules are key to assessing whether individual cities could be in trouble. But a look at midsize cities could show early signs of distress. These places have some of the highest rates of office delinquency (where loan payments on buildings are behind schedule) and the lowest rates of office occupancy.

XTOD: "They issued an urgent call for a revised playbook to better understand and respond to a rapidly changing landscape that threatened to stoke more frequent supply shocks, higher prices and heightened volatility across financial markets." An important article on #JacksonHole by the  @FT 's  @colbyLsmith   Good to see the growing recognition among policymaking influencers that we have gone from a world of insufficient aggregate demand to one in which the supply side needs to be better understood and responded to.

XTOD: Michael Kantrowitz - bearish stocks
Michael Hartnett - bearish stocks
Michael Wilson - bearish stocks
Michael Kramer - bearish stocks 
Michael Gayed - bearish stocks 
Michael Burry - bearish stocks
What do they all have in common?  Anyone?

XTOD: "Everything in life is volatility times time. As volatility increases, time compresses. But what we care about is the validity of the fixed point. If we lose it, everything in the past becomes meaningless." — Myron Scholes

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1696235435415020031?s=20
https://twitter.com/AntonioFatas/status/1695389948877111436?s=20
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1696228685131485289?s=20
https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1696359679968915668?s=20
https://twitter.com/rachsieg/status/1696169582866690551?s=20
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1696114834666922054?s=20
https://twitter.com/Mr_Derivatives/status/1696145326087057722?s=20
https://twitter.com/Enterprising/status/1696258637038068174?s=20