Daily Economic Update: August 25, 2023

 J-Hole day is upon us. 2Y Treasury is trading 5.03% and the 10Y is trading 4.24% both up slightly.  Atlanta Fed GDP now rises again, now at 5.9% for Q3, while across the pond German Ifo business confidence fell again and was below estimates.  Why we care so much about central bank speeches is a wonder of the modern world, but I guess if you're of the view that the Fed acts largely through expectations then speeches matter a lot.  Of course there is also a saying that actions speak louder than words and eventually people won't care about what you say unless you eventually follow through.  Last year Powell basically said there would be pain and I guess there was if you were were certain institutions, but for the market writ large that pain has been hard to see and inflation has come down nonetheless.  

On the day ahead we get UofM Consumer Sentiment data, Powell's speech and Lagarde's speech. 

XTOD: My experience with Jackson Hole is that the actual contents of the speech rarely matter. It’s an opportunity to identify the point of maximum pain, and squeeze

XTOD: All the *s should be "dismissed with prejudice" https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/the-fed-wastes-time-star-trekking/

XTOD: Lots of people beating up on Larry Summers over his chart making recent disinflation look just like the mid-70s disinflation, which reaccelerated. Indeed, problematic on many fronts. But the biggest issue is that the story was very different. Mid-70s disinflation was achieved via a huge rise in unemployment; reasons to wonder what would happen as U came down again.  This time no rise in U at all, so completely different process. Oh, and a lot of the inflation resurgence was about the Iranian revolution and oil prices 

XTOD: Nike down record 11 days in a row

XTOD: Tiger 🐅 Global is doomed

XTOD: Here’s a great primer by Popular Info on what “shrink” and “organized retail crime,” is, and why corporations and media like to make it sound like it’s all shoplifting.

XTOD: The Sopranos 2023: Adriana starts an OnlyFans... This is not a meme. Drea De Matteo announced last night on IG that her OF is now live

Links to X/Tweets (in order)
https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap/status/1694808681139876119?s=20
https://twitter.com/NGDP_Advice/status/1694816815598207446?s=20

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1694797065774080399?s=20

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1694809388186247494?s=20
https://twitter.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/1694803451664883977?s=20
https://twitter.com/DarrigoMelanie/status/1694806943955558668?s=20
https://twitter.com/timeimmemorial_/status/1694727416789491752?s=20